This is the second attempt at writing this preview, because there is so much to cover for the Swans, and depending on your perspective, things can come across as overly negative, or overly positive. There’ll be elements of both in this one. The first one was slanted too far one way.
A coaching change, a Grand Final belting, and a team that dominated the first half of the 2024 season, only to falter on the back nine, gives critics plenty of ammunition to fire at the Swans.
However, this is a team that is still stacked with talent, and though there is a penchant to be wary of sides who are under a new coaching regime, having Dean Cox move from the assistant’s chair to the big one, is not exactly a case of reinventing the wheel.
It may end up being a case of “here’s the new boss… same as the old boss.” That can be both good and bad.
Perhaps people are a little too eager to see the back of the Swans, and are tyring to talk their demise into existence. Between Sydney, the Hawks, and the Cats, I reckon there is a bit of success-fatigue amongst fans when it comes to those clubs. I’ve read comments where people have said “not the Swans” in terms of who they think will make the Grand Final this season.
It’s nice to be hated, I guess.
It’d be better to be hated for winning the bloody thing, though.
The Swans front up to the 2025 season feeling a little humbled, after looking as though they were ready to take all before them at points in 2024. The pieces are still in place, with the nucleus of the team young and ready to go around again. This is not a team that will go away quietly, irrespective of much people want them to.
There will be tweaks and changes, experiments, and trials, but what we’re going to get from Sydney is largely the same players that made 2024 such a rollercoaster.
It’s just about getting them playing their best footy at the time of the year they need to.
It’s that time of year, already.
The break after Christmas and New Year is over. The holidays are finished for AFL players, and the hard stuff starts now. Yes, the teams had been training for well over a month prior to Christmas, but as we head into 2025, the stakes are raised, and the intensity increases. Less than two months until the first bounce.
This is where premierships are won and lost. This is where improvements are made and lists come together. This is where the kids show if they’re serious or not. New faces, new colours, old heads with renewed passion… so much feeds into the making of a contender. And as the days tick down toward the intra-club clashes, practice games, and eventually the real stuff, questions are raised about each team and how they’re going to perform in this new season.
And that’s where HB and The Mongrel come in.
We don’t do things by halves here, at The Mongrel Punt. When we do a season preview, we go all out to make sure it is the best, most comprehensive coverage you’ll receive. We pride ourselves on it. If you are going to read one season preview for your team, or any team, this series will provide it.
The way it works is as follows.
Each club has a minimum of 15 questions asked about the upcoming season, their coaches, their players, and their expectations. The answers are not glossed over. We dive deep on each and every one of them – some singular answers would normally be long enough for an entire column. The first five questions/answers are free for you to consume. The next 10-14 for each club are for our members, including a special appearance from Mrs Mongrel to throw her two cents in the mix.
Isn’t it a bit early for a season preview? Well, I suppose, but do you know how long it takes to write seven-to-nine thousand words? That’s 18 x 8,000… gets out the calculator… that’s 144,000 words. The average novel is about 85,000 words, so buckle the hell up with these previews; we’re going deeper than ever.
Also, if there are any issues that arise after the publication of the preview for any team, they will be covered in standalone articles to act as additions to this preview.
You will not read a deeper season preview than this – I guarantee it. This is where we start the run to the new season, and believe me – nobody does it better than The Mongrel.
And now we come to the 2024 runners-up. Let’s take a look at the Swans.
Enjoy.
1 – WHAT DOES THE ABSENCE OF JOHN LONGMIRE AS HEAD COACH MEAN TO THIS TEAM?
Let’s jump into The Mongrel Time Machine for a moment, and journey back to the 2011 season. Actually, let’s bump it back twelve months further, to the end of the 2010 season.
Geelong were bundled out of the finals in the Prelim, dropping the game to the eventual premiers, Collingwood. Following that season, despite well and truly being in the premiership window, Mark ‘Bomber’ Thompson stepped away as coach of the Cats. And when he did people questioned whether this would negatively impact the Cats.
It opened the door for Chris Scott to take the reins of the club that would see him win two flags with the club, including the 2011 premiership.
The point of that opening story is that Scott inherited a high-quality, contending team, and the new voice in the ears of the players was enough to drive them to the 2011 premiership. That, and the fact they were seasoned and ready to perform.
Could the same thing happen in Sydney in 2025?
Whilst there will be some changes implemented under Dean Cox, he has been sitting under the learning tree of John Longmire for years, and whilst he was able to shelter and receive a fantastic apprenticeship in the role, he was often the subject of falling branches, in the form of Longmire’s wrath in the coaches’ box. He has been preparing for this moment – and now he is in control of the team he helped build.
Already, we’ve heard reports of players looking at new roles under the guidance of Cox, which could go either way, if we’re being honest.
Getting a new message and having a new, if similar, direction does not necessarily mean that the club will be resigned to a year where they will not have their sights set on a top four position and another run at the flag.
With this list, they’d be foolish to settle for anything less.
Had Cox been an outsider, coming in to create significant change, I would be doubtful that the Swans would make the necessary adjustments in time to contend in year one of his tenure, but this is a man that knows the club inside out. He has been in the assistant’s seat for a long while. He doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel – just make sure its in alignment.
There is almost a consensus amongst AFL fans who don’t support Sydney, that the Swans will fall over this year. Or at least stumble. However, this is not a wholesale change to the club. This is a pivot, and maybe it was a required one.
Sydney are a very good football team. They didn’t fluke their way into the Grand Final – no team ever does. They worked their arses off to get there, and a pivot here and there may well see them do it again. Hell, it may be the key to getting them to play good football for one week longer than they’ve been able to in the last few years.
Some expect there to be wholesale changes in the structure and the game style of the Swans. I call bullshit on that – there is an old saying that you “don’t go away from what got you to the dance.”
The Swans got to the dance in 2024. They just didn’t get to seal the deal.
Dean Cox may have a few different ideas, but this Sydney team is primed and ready for another premiership assault. He’d be crazy to change what is, despite their last game, a successful formula.
It’s all systems go with Cox at the helm in 2025 – he knows what he has at his disposal, and he knows a flag is a genuine chance.
2 – WHERE DOES THIS TEAM GO, PSYCHOLOGICALLY, AFTER SUCCESSIVE GRAND FINAL FAILURES?
I’m a fan of history. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. The Sydney Swans must not ignore what happened last time.
And what did happen last time they were pumped in a Grand Final?
They plummeted, struggling to stay in touch, finished eighth, and ended up being ousted in the first week of the finals.
Whilst I cannot see a team with this much talent doing the same in 2025, it is important to learn from the past and be aware that there could be some significant fallout from such a disastrous ending to the season.
Some individuals, in particular, have some demons to exorcise. They owe this team.
The Swans were the “it” team for the first half of the year, before falling back to earth, firstly via a series of close finishes and losses, then ending the home and away season in indifferent form. Astute observers saw signs they did not like. Our own Swans die-hard, and fellow Mongrel, Peter Monagle, called it out while the team was still winning – they were powering past teams with one quarter, or even just fifteen minutes, of blistering footy. They weren’t putting in four quarters. They were gettable, whereas earlier in the season, they would not let teams have a sniff.
However, it is difficult to argue with winning form, and after publishing his thoughts, Peter copped flak from many Swans faithful, despite having valid concerns. That Sydney finished top of the ladder seemed to bury the criticism, but the signs remained. Largely by virtue of their excellent start to the year, the Swans took advantage of their home finals and knocked over GWS and Port Adelaide to advance to the Grand Final.
All was right with the world again.
And then, they ran into a buzzsaw in Brisbane colours.
There were many mistakes made in both that game, and the lead up to it. Errors in judgement were made, and after going into the game as the favourite, the Swans were blown off the park by the Lions.
At the halfway point of the season, had anyone stated that Horse Longmire would be looking for the door after the season, most would have thought the person making the statement had been imbibing. But here we are, heading into the 2025 season with the weight too much for the premiership coach, and a new man in the main chair.
If you need to look at what sort of toll losing Grand Finals in that manner has on a person, look at John Longmire. He lived the AFL life, from premiership player, to assistant coach, to premiership coach… and it all became too much for him when the Swans failed again.
How has it impacted everyone else?
How has it impacted the players who failed to perform up to standard?
How has it impacted those who were highlighted in the media for not running back, but ambling back, to help defend?
How has it impacted those whose finals series paled in comparison to their home and away heroics?
There is much to work through at the Sydney Swans, but first and foremost, Dean Cox will be sitting this team down and walking through the way they played to open 2024. That is the team that needs to show up in 2025. The Swans destroyed the competition – we even had the talking heads starting to mention the word “undefeated” when they were projecting the rest of the year.
They had an aura about them, but it faded as the season progressed. They need it back to kick-start their 2025 season and right the wrongs of 2024.
Make no mistake, this is a big ask. To climb to the peak of the mountain, only to be knocked back down to base camp and have to climb it all over again, takes commitment and drive. Do the Swans have it? All of them? Or has the last few years sapped them?
I once listened to Dermott Brereton talk about backing up for another season after a Grand Final loss, and knowing the amount of work it was going to take. He commented that you could sense when a team was off, even if it was just a few percent off. And his Hawks would take advantage of that.
The Swans cannot afford to be off in any way, shape, or form. AFL teams are like sharks, and even a small reduction in output acts like blood in the water.
The loss needs to drive them – not define them. And they need to lay to rest the “hangover” that has become synonymous with a Grand Final belting.
3 – AT WHAT POINT DO THE SWANS START PLANNING FOR LIFE AFTER CHAD?
Aaaaand, here we go; the subject that will hang over the team until it doesn’t.
The Chad is a keeper. There is zero doubt in my mind about that.
If there is any way the Swans can hold onto him, that is the avenue they should take (oh, well done, genius… pretty obvious take). Genuine match-winners don’t just happen along, and although plenty of teams have very good, and some great players, Chad has the potential to be a superstar in this league.
At 23, Warner already has a foot well and truly wedged in that door.
The hope is that the contract is worked out sooner rather than later, and all the stress associated with the “will he/won’t he?” nature of these situations doesn’t become a distraction.
But it could become one. It could be one of those instances where every time a Swans player or coach is interviewed, the contract situation of Chad Warner is broached. And it could be one of those things where every time Warner doesn’t play well, questions are then asked about his commitment to the cause. That, my friends, is where things start to get a little clouded, and issues begin to arise.
Ideally, Sydney would want Warner signed, sealed, and retained by the bye rounds. It’s usually the trigger point for me; the place I start to question whether we’re going to see that player wearing different colours the following season. A quick perusal of league scuttlebutt will quickly reveal that it is not only the Dockers and Eagles that want Warner to come “home”, but there is also plenty of interest from other teams all over the place that would be happy to throw a huge deal at him to jump ship.
It’s nice to be wanted, I suppose.
Should we hit Rounds 14-15 and there are no real signs of movement on Warner’s contract, we could even start to see a shift in the way the Swans use him. Maybe a coach with his eye on 2026 and beyond doesn’t have Warner as first-pick midfielder? Maybe he plays him forward more, and structures his midfield unit around those who will be there longer?
Of course, that will largely depend on where Sydney sits on the ladder at that stage – you don’t sabotage the present to plan for the future, but a coach will often have one eye on what is going on at the moment, and another on where things are headed. They coach for now, and plan for what’s to come.
With Dean Cox new in the chair, he has the chance to steer this Sydney team on a course for sustained success over a number of years. With Warner, the Swans are more of a weapon, but with something like… oh, let’s say two first rounders, including one pick in the low numbers of the draft, they build for the future, as well.
Is there a losing situation for Sydney, here?
No. No, there is not. It is a case of securing a player on the cusp of superstardom, or having the opportunity to successfully bolster an already-impressive group of young players by adding a high-class player, or players, from the draft.
Regardless of how you feel about Chad – and I love the way the bloke plays – the Swans are set to win, either way.
More on Warner a bit later on.
4 – DO WE GET A FORWARD REVAMP IN 2025?
This has been the story out of Sydney in the pre-season – the potential move of Tom McCartin to play as a forward to offer a more reliable marking target inside 50.
And it is probably a shame this wasn’t tried at some point in 2024, to test the waters.
Hindsight, huh?
During the 2024 season, one of our esteemed writers had the chance to sit with a multiple Brownlow Medallist to watch a Swans game. As the action unfolded, the champion of the game commented that he didn’t think the Swans could win a flag with Joel Amartey, Hayden McLean, and Logan McDonald as the inside 50 targets.
It stuck with our writer, and I wonder whether that same person imparted this wisdom to Dean Cox at some stage.
Despite Amartey’s nine-goal blast in Round 14, his second half of the year was pretty bloody ordinary. He averaged just one goal per game over the next 12 weeks, as he struggled to out-muscle opponents.
McLean was playing the dual role of forward and backup ruck. He looked the most likely to do some damage, at times, due to his marking prowess, but the ruck duties often took him away from the forward line. He averaged 1.2 goals per game over the last 12 weeks.
McDonald was the best-performed big forward over the last 12 weeks, at least in terms of scoring, averaging 1.5 goals per game, but with one disposal before being subbed out of the Grand Final, it is obvious that he is not the answer.
Not yet, anyway. In time, maybe.
Tom McCartin started life at Sydney as a forward. The problem was, at that point, he was still a baby. Hell, he is still just 25 and it feels like he has been in the league forever. He was the youngest player in the league, and was positioned as a deep forward.
It wasn’t until 2021 that he was used exclusively as a defender, so the thought of moving him forward, as alarming as it might sound initially, makes a bit of sense. Whilst Amartey and McDonald have the potential to be very solid forwards, they both lack contested marking ability at this stage. McCartin is big enough and strong enough to provide it.
Of course, how best to cover him in defence is the question that arises from this potential move, and it is something that will be debated amongst Swans fans.
Dane Rampe is no spring chicken, these days, but with the support of Lewis Melican, Robbie Fox, Aaron Francis, and even Joel Hamling (who is a long shot, I admit), there is the chance that the Sydney defence could hold it together to give McCartin a run as a forward.
And would that leave the Swans too tall in attack?
Mmmmaybe.
Perhaps it means that Hayden McLean has a role change? He has a great pair of hands, and could do well as a defender/interceptor, if allocated the role.
If Dean Cox wants an improvement in his key forwards, moving Tom McCartin into the mix may just provide it for them, but it will be very interesting to see how they cover his loss, and whether the chemistry is evident quickly, or takes time to develop.
5 – DOES THE LIZARD NEED MORE SUPPORT?
Nick Blakey came under fire for some of his defensive efforts in the Grand Final.
Maybe it was justified, but far out… if the Swans want this bloke to be a run-and-gun, attacking weapon, they cannot allow him to be dragged back to the goal square, and forced to play like a key defender.
He is not a key defender. He has the height, but is far from it in terms of physicality, and this was exposed in front of the footy world on the biggest stage. Not ideal, but it’s something for the Swans’ brains trust to tuck away in their back pocket as a reminder to protect this bloke at all costs.
To me, Blakey is a confidence player. You want him thinking that he can do anything out there, as when he does, he takes the game on unlike any player in the league. In those moments, he is the lizard, cutting his way through the valley as the snakes come at him left and right. He carves a game to pieces as he slices through the middle of the ground, and sows the seeds of chaos all over the park.
Watch when he does it – watch the way it forces the players ahead of the ball to react. In the Sydney forwards, you can sense excitement – they know opportunity is knocking. In the opposition defenders, it is a sense of sheer panic, as they know the game is being broken open and their opponents are being presented with genuine options.
He is the ultimate chaos merchant, but having him dragged back to the goal square gives the opposition a sense of control. That is where they want him. Control over chaos.
Give me chaos, every time with Blakey.
And give me plenty of it.
Blakey had a heap asked of him in the Grand Final, and it is important for him to know that the team let him down every bit as much as he let anyone down. His role is not to stand next to a direct opponent, wear them like a glove, and lock them down. The Swans failed to adequately cover for him and provide the help he needed. Yes, a couple of his actions were not great – and he has to own them in each individual instance – but the overall story here was how Brisbane were able to punish the Swans by working off Blakey, and how Sydney, as a team, failed to recognise this and make adjustments.
I am sure there will be some who simply state that Blakey needs to be better and not rely on the support of others when it comes to containing his own opponent, and there is merit in that… particularly if you remain stuck in the one-on-one defensive mindset of years past. However, team defence is meant to capitalise on the strengths of those in the back six, and work cohesively to cover the weaknesses.
And the Swans failed to do that, almost across the board, in the Grand Final. It was just painfully obvious when it related to Blakey.
The next 14 questions are for our members. Option to join below.
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