1. Ken Hinkley’s nightmare in finals continues
Most people rate Hinkley highly as a coach. He has overseen a period in which Port Adelaide have been a reasonably strong side having appeared in a number of finals series under his watch. They’ve also finished in the Top Four a few times as well. It hasn’t been all bad, so you can see why the club has persisted with him despite never being able to make it to a Grand Final. So with Port coming into this year’s finals after six straight wins which included top eight sides, many thought surely this time around they’ll learn from the past and not go out in straight sets.
Well, if you’re a betting man, I’d say to bet against that might be foolish based on how good the Hawks are going. If the Power do get beaten this week by Hawthorn, will Ken Hinkley survive? He is contracted for next year, but can the fans tolerate another disastrous finals series? Will the club have run out of patience? It did look as though that things had righted themselves in the lead up to the finals campaign, and after copping quite a bit of flak mid-season when the Power were struggling with their form, the players responded and the heat was off. It’s back on with a vengeance now. Only a win against the Hawks can take some heat off. Anything less might be the final straw for the career of the coach.
2. Geelong memberships are awesome value
Imagine going to the footy to watch your team every single week knowing they are always a legitimate chance to win against any opposition.
Imagine following a side that has had a lot of recent success that never allows its limited draft choices to result in recruiting mediocre players.
Imagine following a team whose off-field operations get it right more often than not resulting in a culture of success and a winning mindset.
You couldn’t ask for more, and that’s precisely what Geelong fans get. The Geelong victory over Port Adelaide was breathtaking in so many ways. You had the likes of Cameron and Stengle each booting four goals each while Miers finished with three. But one of the stories of the match was Shaun Mannagh. He had 23 touches and also booted three majors. It was just the tenth game played for the mature-age recruit. Another 2024 debutante, in Lawson Humphries, also had a strong game with 20 touches in a defensive role. These are just two examples of the kind of talent this club keeps unearthing.
The Cats will await the result of next week’s clash between the Giants and Brisbane. Either way the Cats will have the advantage of playing at home, or at least in their home state, as they eye off another flag. We’ve already spoken about the troubled times ahead for coach Ken Hinkley. The playing group will need to have a spotlight placed upon it. Eleven players had each got eight possessions or less. One of those was Zak Butters who went off the ground injured in the third, and boy will he be missed if he isn’t available. And sitting at the bottom of that list is Charlie Dixon who looks all but certain to be omitted after another low possession game with just three touches. Everything went wrong for the Power. Their long kicking game fed the Cats’ defence plenty of rebound opportunities, especially with Dixon only taking one mark. Georgiades took six marks for the game but was only able to score 1.2. The marks inside 50 were a telling stat with Port taking seven while the Cats took 22. After half time the Power only managed a solitary goal while the Cats piled on 11. Port fans left early in disgust, and the writing is on the wall for another straight sets exit. All eyes will be on Adelaide Oval this Saturday.
3. No nerves for the young Hawks playing their first final
There are just two players at Hawthorn with some genuine finals experience, having been there in those halcyon days with the three flag wins from 2013 to 2015. They are Jack Gunston and Luke Breust, of course, but neither had a big say in this game. It was players like Jai Newcombe getting 35 touches and a goal in his first-ever final. It’s a similar story with Massino D’Ambrosio who had 32. Nick Watson was super impressive with four majors while Dear booted 3.4 and marked so much of what came his way.
The Hawks went into this game as slight underdogs with some believing the more experienced Bulldogs might be hard to contain, but this young Hawks outfit is playing as well as anybody going around right now. It really is hard to see them losing to Port Adelaide next week.
The Bulldogs started well but when the Hawks cranked it up a gear, the Doggies couldn’t go with them. Both the leg speed and elite kicking proved too hard to defend against. Aaron Naughton was the best forward for the Bulldogs finishing with three goals. The impressive Sam Darcy and Ugle-Hagan were well down on their best. Darcy scored one goal while Ugle-Hagan had a shocker with just four touches and no goals. Bontempelli had a quiet night by his lofty standards with just 18 touches and a goal. With their season now over, the Western Bulldogs may have to really figure out what’s missing from their list. It looks good on paper, but it is rare to see them all firing at the same time. One will have to question the treatment of Jackson Macrae, who today asked for a trade, and Caleb Daniel throughout the year. You wouldn’t be surprised if these guys found new homes next year.
4. The Hawks could go all the way
They are, without a doubt, the form side of the competition. Since losing the opening five games of the year they’ve won 14 and lost just 4. Their ball use is elite, and they have plenty of speed among the group. They’ve also had some convincing victories over some of the better teams, although they did suffer a fairly bad 51 point loss when they played the Cats in Round 17. That could be significant if they were to somehow eke their way into that big day as the Cats could be their opponent. Of course, a lot has to go right for that to happen, including winning this week then facing the Swans.
As good as Hawthorn is going, even though I believe they’re a genuine chance to beat Port Adelaide, the Swans are a different proposition. They just seem too professional and maybe more mature than the Hawthorn playing group. Both sides use the ball incredibly well, but I just think those older heads and more seasoned bodies might have the edge. There’s nothing to suggest that Port won’t bounce back and knock them out. Although, that insipid performance against Geelong and their putrid finals record makes you wonder, but weirder things have happened. Whichever way you look at it, Hawthorn under Sam Mitchell are something special. And they look like they’re going to be a force for some time to come.
5. Isaac Heeney is the MVP of the AFL
I have a twelve year old son who loves his footy. Kids that age always ask questions like “who do you think is the best player in the AFL.” I often answer with Nick Daicos straight away. He is an amazing talent and arguably the best going around today. He does have an influence on results in many games, but as great as he is, in terms of match winners and all round value to their team, Isaac Heeney, hands down, is in my humble opinion, the most valuable player in the AFL. When he’s on, he’s unstoppable, but the one area where he has his nose just slightly ahead of the young Collingwood champ is his ability to literally get his team home in a tight contest. He does it time and again, and the simple equation from Saturday’s Qualifying Final is that if Isaac wasn’t there, Sydney lose.
Plain and simple.
He had another huge game, and the Swans are now through to the Preliminary Final due in huge part to him. He’s just that good when it counts. Overall, for the game, he finished with three goals from 30 touches. His long range shot in that final term which tied the scores up was breathtaking. The energy he brought dragged all his teammates across the line. Joel Amartey hadn’t done a lot for the game but he got his moment late on the back of more hard work from Heeney to put them in front. He’s had an incredible year and if Sydney were to win the ultimate prize this season, whilst there are many top players in that team, the one who always seems to know what needs to be done for the victory is Isaac. If you’re not loving his work, you’re just not a true footy lover!
6. The Sydney teams have made just five appearances at the MCG between them this year
This question gets thrown around a fair bit, but the stark reality is they simply don’t play there very often: Can the Swans win at the MCG?
The Sydney Swans started the year with three games at the MCG from Round 1 through to Round 7 and haven’t been back to the MCG since. This season their record there is pretty good with the exception of their Round Three loss to the Tigers. They beat Collingwood in Round One and smashed the Hawks in Round Seven by 76 points. It’s hard to get a read on that victory when you consider how the Hawks were travelling back then as opposed to the form they’re displaying now, but they did the job and won convincingly at a venue some say is a problem for them.
The problem for Sydney is that, if they make the Grand Final, it will have been 22 weeks or five months since they set foot on the G. That’s a bit of a fixturing anomaly that I think should be addressed moving forward. Look, I still believe they can take it out, but, if we’re truly being honest about it, a Melbourne team would be more at home there than they would be.
The Giants have only played two games at the MCG all year. It wasn’t until Round 18 that they played there for the first time this season and they had a four goal win over Richmond, then two weeks later played Melbourne and won against a fast finishing Demons by just two points. It’s not much of a sample size to go off, suffice to say they can win there and have competed well in recent times during finals at the MCG. With all that in mind, it doesn’t seem as though the interstate sides do get a sufficient number of games at the MCG. When you take into consideration there’s no finals being played at Marvel Stadium these days, it might be prudent to expose the non-Victorian teams to more MCG games. This will probably never happen due to the lower crowd numbers they generate thus making Marvel more suitable.
With Sydney finishing on top of the ladder, it may seem a little unfair for them to effectively be playing an away final if they make it through, and we saw the result in 2022 against the Cats. We shouldn’t see a repeat of that, but the reality is that if it’s a Geelong and Sydney Grand Final, I’m sure the Cats will be more than happy about playing at the home of football.
7. Carlton supporters are losing patience with Voss
For 56 minutes, the Blues had failed to score in a do or die Elimination Final. Meanwhile, Brisbane had scored 9.6 (60) and the game was well and truly over. Patrick Cripps finally broke the drought and he was closely followed by a Fantasia goal. It should’ve been three goals in a row just before half time when Harry McKay missed one of his customary sitters from 25m out on a slight angle. It was also during the second quarter when Tom De Koning was subbed on and Carlton finally decided to participate in the game.
The decision to make him the sub was a strange one. It’s always an odd move to put a ruckman on as sub, and if they said de Koning wasn’t fit enough to play out four quarters, was it a wise choice to pick him at all? The Blues have missed the big ruckman, so it’s understandable to rush him back in even if he wasn’t at 100%, but his inclusion into the game came when the game was already lost. Any way you look at this, it was a mistake, and furthermore, the player subbed out in the second quarter was Matthew Kennedy. There were definitely more players that warranted being taken out of the game ahead of the noted ball-winner in my opinion. And I imagine Kennedy would not be all too pleased with being stuck on the sidelines for over half of the game.
The Blues fought back to eventually lose by a more respectable 28 points, but you could see the Lions went into cruise control after opening up that huge lead. Whilst most understood the need to make six changes with a lot of their best players being available after a spell with injuries, it was always going to have mixed results. The Carlton faithful had been shown glimpses of the younger stars on their list in the previous fortnight and the kids had definitely brought a new kind of energy into the group. Jaxon Binns on a wing had been solid, while the mid-season draftee in Cooper Lord had shown a lot of grunt in the midfield. And although he was the sub two weeks in a row, there is no denying that Ashton Moir will be a gun forward in time. He looked the goods and the fans were wondering why he didn’t get the nod once Curnow was ruled out. Voss has come under fire for being reluctant to play kids, and once he was forced to do so they actually looked pretty good.
Meanwhile, there are plenty of Blues players who seem to get games even when they’re not performing. Voss may have to reassess his selection criteria into next year, and if next year is another year of what ifs and maybes, the club will probably be compelled to replace him. The Blues finished the year winning just two games from its last nine. Voss was out-coached several times.
8. Were Brisbane that good, or were Carlton that bad?
The first half was a horror show if you’re a Blues fan. It was one of those games where Brisbane had the ball on a string and were met with little to no resistance. Marking contests seemed laughable as a Brisbane player would take a mark in the middle of a pack, yet seem unopposed. But when a Carlton player flew for a mark, the ball was suddenly a cake of soap. The Lions midfield were winning everything, and the forwards were taking marks and scoring at will. Meanwhile, when Carlton did get their hands on the footy, it became a choice between poor decision making or poor execution, and flat out ineptitude when going inside 50.
Carlton is a proud club, and the players who wear the jumper did play a lot better in the second half, but to give a team a ten goal start in an Elimination Final is unheard of and also an indictment of the mindset coming into the game.
There’s no doubt that Brisbane’s intensity wasn’t quite the same in the second half as they knew they were home. When they were challenged, they would put a score or two on the board just to snuff out any hope for their opponents. They have had a tendency this season to surrender some strong leads, so they may want to address that because that won’t hold up moving forward in the finals. I can see Brisbane advancing beyond next week if they put in a four quarter effort. Anything less than that and the Giants will punish them I feel.
Cam Rayner needs to continue the form he showed on the weekend. Dayne Zorko is still killing them, and he possibly would’ve been licking his lips when he heard that Cincotta wouldn’t be playing. Going into a game with the likes of Neale and a red hot Zorko without a noted tagger in a final seems odd. That’s why I’ve asked the question as to how good the Lions are. This game makes it hard to tell. Sure, they’re a pretty good team and did the job, but with all the factors surrounding their opponents, we won’t really know how good they are until next week.
