20 Minutes into the Last Quarter of the Season
Mars Needs Guitars
I was driving past Mars Stadium in Ballarat today and it struck me that the fate of both the Doggies and the Giants will be decided at this ground in the early Sunday game of Round 24. It will be the most significant match ever played at Mars and it will be the closest Mars ever gets to hosting a final. For both teams, top 4 and double-chance aspirations, as well as home finals will be on the line.
Mars will be rocking.
On the same afternoon as the Martian invasion, out in the wild, wild west, the boys from Alberton will be visiting the Purple Haze to fight out the final games of season 2024 in another out of this world match. There will be tears of joy for one team and tears of angst and pain for the other.
There may be many more eyes awaiting the result of both of these matches to end the 2024 season than just the four clubs involved, as the result of both games could (will) determine the final makeup of the finals contenders and in what order.
Who needs Wildcard Games?
With 10-minutes left (two games) in the final quarter of season, and with ten teams still alive for September action, and another a mathematical chance of slumping into eighth spot, in keeping with the Mars Needs Guitars theme of this analysis, I now present the top 11 teams accompanied with a rock song which best sums up their season to this point.
The AFL’s Top 10 (11) Hits
Sydney Swans (60 points) – Falling to Pieces – Faith No More
“You see, (we) are somewhere in between.
(Our season) is falling to pieces,
Somebody put (us) together…”
Twenty minutes of Heeney and Warner magic and poly-filler win over the Pies does little to cover up the cracks which have surfaced at Moore Park in the latter part of this season.
A win can hide many sins, which in the case of the Swans includes playing basically nine quarters of dead football, from the halftime break in the game against the Dogs, right through to the ten-minute mark of the last quarter against the Pies. The Dogs beat up the Swans, while the Power crushed them, and the Magpies were dining out on the left-over carcass until choking on a Heeney bone and the Swans resurrected their season.
The Swans should, and that is a should with not much confidence, should finish the season with wins over both the Bombers and the Crows and finish on top. The reality is the Swans only need to win one of their two remaining games to finish on top, which would not be the best form to take into September.
To the best of my memory and research, the last time a team finished clear on top of the ladder and failed to win final was back in the VFL days when North Melbourne were the Minor Premiers in 1983 but were knocked out in straight sets. Sydney needs to find their real form real soon – just saying.
Port Adelaide (56 points) – The Gambler – Kenny (Hinkley) Rogers
“Every gambler knows,
The secret to survivin’,
Is knowing what to throw away,
And knowing what to keep..”
A few times over the last couple of seasons, Ken Hinkley has played his cards tight to his chest, hoping that he is holding enough Aces to secure his next win, his job, his next shot at the finals, or his chance at September glory. For two seasons now Kenny’s September trick has come up short, but it hasn’t stopped his resolve and pluck at putting all his chips on the table again this year for September glory.
For Kenny and the Power, the stakes this year range from Zero or Hero, as it is all on the line.
I get the feeling there may be a Joker in the pack this year who assists Kenny and the Power to salvage either a break-even result (Preliminary Final), or the Jackpot prize (Premiers). Having watched the Power destroy the heart and soul of the ladder leaders a fortnight ago, to then watching them struggle to score enough goals to beat a fractured and undermanned Demons last weekend highlights the two sides of the Power in 2024. The Power’s best is irrepressibly good, while their worst is almost unwatchable.
The inconsistency of the Power’s form line from week to week probably explains that even though they sit second on the ladder, holding all the trumps, there is a reluctancy by the gambling community to put their hard earned on them winning the Premiership this year. For what it is worth, and not being a gambler of any repute, they are worth a fiver each way.
GWS Giants (56 points) – What’s My Scene – Hoodoo Gurus
“Like a talent scout,
I’m always checking out new blood,
Oh, I’d do good,
If you tell me your game…”
On the surface, the Giants game plan seems the same as last year but look a little closer and you will see it is they are the same same but different. Jesse is still there, the two Tobys are still there, as well as the usual favourites like Sam, Callum, Tom, Lachie and others, but there are now a few new names emerging and they make a point of difference.
Darcy Jones, Harvey Thomas, Aaron Cadman are the new kids on the block who have added a touch of unpredictability to the Giants’ game plan, which will take opposition coaches time to figure out. Last weekend Chris Fagan and the Lions found out the hard to not ignore what these youngsters bring as they were the leading players as the Giants overpowered the Lions in the last quarter.
Adam Kingsley has the Big Big Sound primed nicely for a serious tilt at the flag, providing they win their last two games of the season against two top teams, the Dockers and the Doggies, who will also be fighting for their September survival. The Giants certainly have a tougher draw than the Cats over the last two weeks, but is it better to being playing and beating quality opposition heading to the finals, rather than a soft couple of wins? I will answer that question as seasons end.
Geelong Cats (56 points) – Cool For Cats – UK Squeeze
“And meanwhile at the station there’s a couple of likely lads,
Who swear like “How’s your father?” and
They’re very cool for cats,
They’re cool for cats (cool for cats)”
The choice of song for the Cats was very difficult as I tossed between Cool for Cats by the UK Squeeze, Kitty by the Presidents of the United States, or Stray Cat Strut by the Runaway Boys, but given everything old comes back into fashion again and the Cats seem cool again, the UK Squeeze won. Actually, not in a million years did I ever think I would be saying there was anything cool about the Geelong Football Club, but after reviewing their match last weekend they just looked cool the way they went about it.
In 2022, the Cats were all business, and they meticulously dismantled the Swans on Grand Final Day in a business-like manner, but this is 2024 and they looked like they are having fun on the field. If Catters are going to steal the flag this year, then they are going to enjoy themselves along the way.
Like Port Adelaide, well not really like Port Adelaide as they play like they have a massive chip to remove from their shoulders, but to the extent most pundits have underestimated their chances this year, the Cats are well placed to be the Great Victorian Hope this September.
Brisbane Lions (54 points) – Six Months in Leaky Boat – Split Enz
“Ah, c’mon all you lads,
Let’s forget and forgive,
There’s a world to explore,
Tales to tell back on shore,
(We) just spent six months in a leaky boat…”
To a lot of neutral observers, a free kick late in the last quarter of the Grand Final did not go the Lions way, but the Lions didn’t publicly mention it and with humility they got on with the job of repairing a team which had just lost the Grand Final. There is no prestige in being the ‘runner-up’ in the AFL as soon as the final siren blows on Grand Final Day the winner is feted by all and sundry, while the carcass of the ‘runner-up’ is ripped a new one by a bloodthirsty press gallery.
The Lions stumbled into this season like a drunken sailor, and it has taken them some time to find their sea legs this season, but find them they have, and they are on a mission to pillage the Premiership Cup this year. Yes, they lost week, but they had won nine straight and there was nothing in that lose which would suggest their form had tapered off, rather they just didn’t have their disco boots on in front of goal.
The Lions are hungry, and they have spent most of this season lost at sea, but they have caught up now and if they can slip back into the top four they will most likely plunder the MCG on the last Saturday in September and pillage the Cup from Victoria.
Fremantle Dockers (50 points) – Purple Rain – Prince and the Revolution
“(We) never meant to cause any sorrow,
(We) never meant to cause any pain….,
…(We) only want to see you,
Laughing in the purple rain.”
If I could use one diagnosis from the DSM-IV to describe Fremantle it would be, Bipolar. From one week to the next the Dockers swing from massive highs to massive lows (sometimes even within the same match, eg: the Essendon loss). Swinging high and swinging low is a historical diagnosis which has riddled the very fabric of the Freo Boys since their inception to the AFL.
Just when I’m about to jump on the Purple Haze after one of their hypomanic wins, they suddenly drop off and deliver a soul wrenching drop in form, and everybody is left drinking the Kool-Aid.
Four weeks ago the Dockers were the team, as in ‘the team”, and they were on their way to conquering September, but a couple of injuries and suddenly they are the team most vulnerable of losing their spot in the top eight to either the Blues or the Bombers (if either one can get their act together).
Hopefully for the Dockers fans they can go a hypomanic rampage through September much in the same way the Western Bulldogs did in 2016. I am not writing the Dockers off, but I will watch with interest to see whether Mr Hyde or Dr Jekyll turns up to play come September.
Western Bulldogs (48 points) – Diamond Dogs – David Bowie
“Come out the garden, (puppies),
You’ll catch death in the fog,
(Footscray), they call them the Diamond Dogs…”
If it was not for the current crop of Puppies winning the flag in 2016 and/or making a Covid Grand Final in 2021, then I would be searching the DSM-IV the same as I did for the Dockers. Strangely the Dogs know how to thrive amongst their madness and succeed whilst swimming in a pool of failure.
Far be it for me or anybody else to say the Dogs blew their chances of success last weekend in Adelaide, as they are more than capable of turning their form line around and having an amazing run in September.
Follow the Dogs and watch them implode, however, write them off and watch them bite back like Diamond Dogs. For two years plus, the Dogs have destroyed me in any tipping competition I have been in.
I just realised while writing, the AFL has three of it’s biggest loose cannons in the finals this year, the Power, the Dockers, and the erratic Diamond Doggies.
Hawthorn Hawks (48 points) – Celebrate – Kool and the Gang
“There’s a party going on right here,
A dedication to last throughout the year,
So bring your good times, and your laughter too,
We’re going to celebrate our party with you..”
Here come the Happy Hawks! What the hell is going on, firstly I accuse the dour Cats of being cool, and now the one-time unsociable Hawks I’m accusing them of being happy, and fun and all that stuff. Maybe I need the medication as there is a lot of strange stuff unravelling in this article.
From nowhere, the Hawks have suddenly appeared in the top eight with a real chance of staying there, even going up a few notches on the ladder. I am not as carried away as some who claim the Happy Hawks can finish in top four, which would require a few hundred stars to align to even be plausible, but they are the BIG improver this year.
The Hawks can only dare to dream, but whenever their season finishes this year, their dreams will have exceeded any expectation they had prior to the season starting. The one thing the Hawks have their favour this year, is all the teams above them have had their weaknesses exposed and exploited throughout the season, while few would have been seriously paying any attention to the Hawks as they slowly crept into finals contention through the back window.
Carlton Blues (48 points) – It’s Too Late – Carol King
“Though we really did try to make it,
Something inside has died,
And (we) can’t hide and (we) just can’t fake it,
Oh no, no, no…
…It’s too late.”
Take your medicine Blues fans, as the Baggers have been afflicted with several ailments over the last couple months. Shall I count the ways – yes, I will.
One – there was a loss of cohesion when Robbie Williams’ love child TdK was stricken with injury and poor old Matt Pittonett was forced to shoulder he big man duties on his own, well except when somebody in the Blues brains trust thought it good idea to allow a Rolls Royce named Patrick Cripps to stand a few turns in the ruck. I thought Cripps in the ruck was odd at the time, but it has highlighted the second ailment the Blues suffer from.
Two – Patrick Cripps is the ultimate ‘man for all seasons” for the Blues as there is no position on the ground he will not step into is he thinks it will help his beloved club get over the line, but who is Robin to Batman? Cripps in the ruck is symbolic of the lack leadership on the field there to support Cripps. Nobody in their right mind would put a Rolls Royce like in a ‘smash em’ up derby’, but Carlton did.
Three – don’t worry, I will get to the injuries, but over the last six weeks the Blues have not been able to hit the side of barn when shooting at goal. In the Blues five losses over the last six weeks, they have kicked a total of 37 goals and 48 behinds. No team can sustain that amount of inaccuracy and expect to win.
Four – and now we can finally discuss injuries, but only after highlighting the other ailments which have afflicted the Blues and saw them drop down the ladder. Yes, I give the Blues a mulligan for their loss to the Hawks as no team can sustain that number of injuries during a game without it affected performance, but that only explains one game.
At season’s end it is to be hoped the Blues hierarchy don’t hide behind the excuse of injuries and they start to address deeper issues which have seen the club drop from second to out of the final’s contention in a space of six weeks.
Essendon Bombers (46 points) – What Becomes of the Broken Hearted
Jimmy Ruffin
“What becomes of the broken hearted,
Who had a love that’s now departed,
I know I’ve got to find,
Some kind of peace of mind.
Maybe?”
Where do Bomber supporters find peace of mind and solace after again being at the end of another season that started off with so much promise but at the end of the it day delivered sweet bugger-all?
There is a puncher’s chance the Bombers could still make the finals, but it would depend on them winning both of their remaining games and many many other results going their way.
Given I am a glass half full kinda person, the Bombers have had a winning season this year and while it may not be enough to make the finals, they have exceeded the expectations most had on them going into the season. I don’t think too many Bomber fans reading this will take much solace from have a winning season without getting rid of the monkey on their back, winning a final.
Collingwood Magpies (44 points) – Good Riddance (Time of your Life)
Green Day
“Another turning point,
a fork stuck in the road,
Time grabs you by the hand and
directs where to go.
So make the best of this test and don’t ask why,
It’s not a question by a lesson learned in time.
It’s something unpredictable,
But in the end, it’s right,
I hope you had the time of your life…”
In the words of the great 1980’s philosopher, Ferris Bueller, “You’re still here. It’s over. Go home. Go.”
