1. Sydney remembered they’re the top team for the last 20 minutes
When Ned Long kicked the first goal of the last quarter, Collingwood’s lead stretched out to 27 points and the Swans were staring down the barrel of their fourth straight loss and being displaced from top spot on the ladder. It also seemed to be a continuation of their mediocre recent form and a pop promising season in tatters.
The Magpies had the game in their control and the lacklustre Swans looked gone for all money. It wasn’t until the 14 minute mark when Will Hayward finally answered for Sydney to breathe some life into his team, and it did the trick. Sydney piled on four more goals to run out winners by three points. One gets the feeling their entire season has been turned around.
We’ve all marvelled at the season Isaac Heeney is having, and we all cringed when he was suspended and made ineligible for Brownlow honours. Since that suspension his form has been seemingly off the boil in line with the rest of his team. As well as he’d played in the first half of the year, his last quarter will stand out as his best for the year. He finished the game with 32 touches, but 14 of those and his goal happened in the important final term. Warner also found some form finishing with 33 touches and two majors. Gulden was blanketed by Sidebottom all night and finished with just 14 possessions, but his matchwinning goal in the last term was breathtaking, and made up for what was a hard night at the office. Hayward booted three goals, and he was just one of many Swans who found some touch after a really rough six weeks. They were so close to despair, but now they’re looking closer to a premiership once more. With two games remaining against the Bombers and the Crows it’s hard to see them losing top spot.
Collingwood did so much right in this contest and it wouldn’t be unreasonable to suggest they deserved the win, but that’s not how football works. The simple fact is Sydney found their mojo again just in time. And the Pies now look certain to miss finals. The Daicos brothers topped the possession count with Josh on 26 and Nick on 25, although Nick wasn’t quite at his absolute best. We already mentioned the great job Sidebottom did to quell the influence of the dangerous Gulden. Cameron had an interesting battle with Grundy and was better around the ground. They’ll need to beat Brisbane and Melbourne just to get chance to slip into the eight now.
2. Brisbane pay massive price for inaccuracy
I’m sure most of us are sick to death of hearing about how even this season is and all the cliches that go along with that, but boy have the Lions paid a massive price for losing this game on the back of missed opportunities in front of goal. One minute they’re sitting pretty in second place on the ladder gearing up for a home final with a double-chance in reserve, and all of a sudden they’re outside the Top 4.
And when you consider that the Giants scored six unanswered goals to close out the game, it seems to be more consistent with what occurred during Lions games in the first half of the season.
The Giants will be thrilled with the final quarter performance of the number one draft pick Aaron Cadman. His strong marking and beautiful finishing produced three goals as he helped his side turn a three goal deficit into a three goal victory. Another 20 year old in Darcy Jones booted two goals in quick succession in that brilliant final term. Are the Giants coming good at the right time now? It’s getting a little hard to keep up with just who’s peaking and who is in a rut. I guess it’s just back to the old adage of one week at a time, and next week sees another important challenge against Fremantle at Engie Stadium.
All good things come to an end, and Brisbane’s winning streak being broken almost seems a little harsh as they’ve fallen three places on the ladder down to fifth. The game was lost via wayward kicking for goal and a last quarter fade-out reminiscent of the Lions’ indifferent early season form. Brisbane lead the game for over 107 minutes. The Giants lead for just under 11 minutes. Lachie Neale had a modest set of numbers by his standards with just 24 touches. Will Ashcroft had 29 and was one of Brisbane’s best. A massive danger game awaits them next round as they make a rare appearance at the MCG to take on the Pies. A loss there would be catastrophic.
3. Roos fans look on in horror as Eagles kick three in two minutes to win
In what seemed to be a round of comeback wins, this one by the Eagles might be deemed the most spectacular. It’s not often a side trailing by 13 points with two minutes remaining get up and win, but that’s what happened, and the North Melbourne could only look on as every bounce went West Coast’s way, every kick found an Eagles player, and their three late shots at goal under pressure all found their target.
After what has been a tough year for skipper Oscar Allen, he had his best game finishing with 5 goals including the freakish matchwinner. Jamie Cripps booted 3. McGovern had 25 touches in a typically rock-solid performance. All in all, West Coast have won two in a row and will head into next week’s home game against the Blues with some confidence. They will be aiming to end their season, and in doing so, possibly the career of Michael Voss.
North Melbourne were stiff. Those last two minutes weren’t littered with mistakes or bad decisions from the Kangaroos. They just couldn’t get near the footy and everything just clicked for their opponents. The Roos had the lead for over 90% of the match, and while we will sympathise with this unlucky loss, most of us are also pleased to see the Eagles are showing signs that the worst is behind them. They’ve also discovered a few good players including McKercher who got the ball 37 times. Sheezel had 31 and booted two goals. Ruckman Tristan Xerri had 30 touches and is now proving to be one of the big improvers in the AFL.
It’s the one that got away, sadly. And their next two games against the Bulldogs and Hawks might be beyond them leaving them stranded on just three wins when they’re arguably a little better than that. Let’s see if they can carry that into next year.
4. Geelong just won’t go away
The Cats are amazingly back in the top four after their great win away against the Dockers. It was a game that was tight throughout and Geelong were just able to finish with a coupe late goals to overcome the tenacious Freo. Geelong were just way more efficient. Despite losing the possession count by almost 100, they were only one down on inside 50s.
There didn’t seem to be any real standout players for Geelong, with Grian Miers earning the most touches with only 23. The question now is how far can Geelong go? You see, the footy gods might be looking after the Cats because they should be too good for the Saints and Eagles in their last two rounds, so the odds of them staying in the Top 4 are favourable.
Fremantle have done so well this year but now find themselves in a precarious position on the back of two consecutive tight losses. Luke Ryan was at his brilliant best with 36 possessions as well as a staggering 15 marks for the match. Caleb Serong has had bigger possession numbers than he had this game after finishing with 22, but he also kicked three goals. It was just 20 touches for Brayshaw making it obvious that Christian Scott came into the game with a plan. The Dockers sit on the precipice after this loss and find themselves in genuine danger of missing out on finals altogether. And a game against GWS at Engie Stadium is not exactly easy.
5. OMG! The Suns won an away game!!!
It finally happened.
We thought they’d blown their only real chance of achieving this feat when they eventually went down to the Eagles after leading for all but a few minutes in that game. I’m not really sure what inspired Damien Hardwick to send Mac Andrew into the forward line over the last couple of weeks, but he was the unlikely hero kicking four goals for the match including the one that put the Suns up by a point after the siren. And thus the Suns finally get a win on the road, and meanwhile the Bombers finals hopes are all but gone.
Rowell and Anderson had 32 and 26 possessions respectively. The Suns take on Melbourne at home next week and will be hoping for a win to break the club’s record for wins in a season which is currently ten.
It seems a shame that the great work from last week’s game against the Dockers is now undone on the back of a final term in which the Bombers wastefully kicked 1.9 for the term. Another season is in tatters. They’re now 20 years without a final win and have made little progress despite another promising start to the year. Nic Martin was great with 36 touches. Merrett had 32 and continues to be the shining example, but it could all be in vain. They’ve got work to do still. Next week they take on the Swans who I feel may have turned the corner in their win on Friday night. It’ll be the last roll of the dice for Essendon.
6. Port keep finding a way
You know a side is going well when they play below their best and still win. In what was a ridiculously low scoring affair, the Power found a way to be in front at the right time. They only led the contest for one third of the game and only hit the lead in the final term with just a few minutes remaining. And just like that they’re back up to 2nd on the ladder. A loss would’ve had them sitting in fifth place. Jason Horne-Francis is killing them every week now. He kicked 2 goals from 28 touches. Butters had 30. Boak had 29 and looks to have bought another to his long and distinguished career. In many ways they were fortunate to win in such a tight contest. They’ll be hoping for more good fortune in next week’s derby against the Crows, but for some reason Adelaide have been getting the better of the Power in recent times, and I imagine they would take immense pleasure in bumping their cross-town rivals out of the Top 4.
Melbourne just want this season to be over so they can reset in 2025, hopefully with a fit and healthy Christian Petracca. Kysaiah Pickett had one of his best games for the year booting four goals from 21 touches. Max Gawn was strong with 22 touches. But aside from these two not a lot stood out. You could argue the fact they only lost by two points against a quality opponent is a good sign. But finals is definitely beyond them now, and that’s, by any metric, will be considered a failure given their recent history. They’ll want to end the season on a positive note. They take on the Suns on the Gold Coast and will give their for the win as I’m pretty sure they won’t want to lose and end up placing lower on the ladder than Gold Coast.
7. Hawks will play finals this year.
They are one of the form sides of the competition. They’ve finally found their way into the Top 8 and their two remaining games are against the two bottom teams. The dismantling of the sadly out of form Carlton on Sunday sends a signal to the other sides battling for Top 8 supremacy. The Hawks making an appearance in September is nothing short of a miracle in the sense that they were winless after five rounds and just two years into a rebuild.
Eyebrows were raised when Sam Mitchell moved certain players on, but he’s starting to look like a genius right now. I could be here all day if I listed all the Hawthorn players who played well, so I’ll just focus on a few. Three goals each to Dear, Gunston and Weddle. Jack Gunston has to go around one more year surely. And Weddle has no business kicking three goals as a half-back flanker! D’Ambrosio topped the Hawks possession numbers with 31, Sicily had 30 and Dylan Moore had 29 and wreaked havoc all day.
The Hawks move the ball quickly and hit targets. They’re the kind of team you possibly don’t want to play during the finals. And while it seems a sure bet that Hawthorn will be playing finals, the Blues have capitulated from being a near favourite for the premiership a mere six weeks ago to now sitting outside the eight and in real danger of not playing finals.
As well as not being able to compete with Hawthorn, by the end of the game Carlton had five players injured, including Curnow and Saad. Their depth has already been tested at times this year and has been left wanting. West Coast in Perth is their next game, and the side that Carlton will take over there will have its work cut out for them. Only Matthew Kennedy and the skipper might be able to hold their head up high after their performance against the Hawks. It was mostly ineptitude coupled with injury concerns. The dark cloud is forming over Ikon Park and questions are being posed of the coach.
8. Rowan Marshall is my smoky for the Brownlow.
Truth be told, the Brownlow is more than likely going to end up with the likes of Cripps, Daicos, Neale or Bontempelli and co, but I’ve been observing the St Kilda ruckman consistently knocking up 20-30 possessions all year as well as hitting the scoreboard. I don’t know if high numbers in AFL Fantasy points translates to Brownlow votes, but his numbers are always massive in that department, too.
Marshall has maintained this level all year and it possibly goes unnoticed to a certain extent, but the umpires are close to the action so I reckon he’s going to poll awfully well. From all reports regarding this game, it was a little messy with errors aplenty. The Saints ended up prevailing purely due to having more avenues to goal. Marshall and Membrey both booted three each. Jack Sinclair had a solid game picking up 29 touches while Josh Battle finished with 28. Marshall had 23 touches to go with his three majors and also took 11 marks. The Saints are finishing off their season well having now won six from their last 11 games. Next week they will try to upset the Cats at Marvel Stadium.
Just two more weeks of pain to come from Adem Yze. What a time to be handed the reins after winning three premierships a few seasons ago. It would seem the pain shall go on with a number of departures looming. Daniel Rioli is heading that group and will be sorry missed. He amassed 36 possessions and was very busy from the outset. Shal Bolton looks set to leave as well and it’s starting to show, I feel. He did kick a couple goals but 11 possessions for him is low. Next week they play Hawthorn and it could get ugly.
9. Bulldogs save their worst for Adelaide Oval.
The Western Bulldogs were soundly beaten back in Round 17 when the ventured over to Adelaide to take on the Power. On that occasion, the final margin was 48 points. They were 8-8 at that stage and most thought finals were beyond them. They then won their next four matches beating the likes of Carlton, Geelong and Sydney at the SCG if you don’t mind!!
All of a sudden, the Top 4 was in the frame, and even suggestions of a premiership. The Crows were never troubled on Saturday night, and they went on to defeat the Bulldogs by a comfortable 39 points. Getting on a plane holds no fear as they were able to win in Sydney, but the trips to Adelaide resulted in two heavy losses.
Adelaide named a side that was near full-strength. Izak Rankine made his return with a modest 15 touches and a goal, but there always a better side when he’s in the team. Darcy Fogarty booted five goals and looked impressive. Ben Keays kicked three. Sholl and Crouch both had over 30 touches. Next week Adelaide comes alive with the second showdown. Port Adelaide are flying high in second place, but the Crows have hit some form and always rise to this occasion. No doubt they’ll be aiming to topple the Power out of the Top 4!
There’s been some games in which the Bulldogs accuracy in front of goal was exceptionally poor, and this was one of them. Scoring 9.18 is going to make it very hard to win, and the Crows had a very healthy 17.9 for their troubles. Bontempelli had 25 disposals and kicked two goals. Sam Darcy had a shocker in front of goal kicking 1.5. The goal he scored was the final goal of the game!
The Bulldogs play North Melbourne next week. The following week they play GWS. This time last year they lost at home to the Eagles and lost unexpectedly which ultimately cost them a place in the finals.
10. The final eight is still far from decided
I’ll do a quick synopsis on each of the teams still in contention and where I think they might finish.
Sydney Swans highest possible finish – 1st. Lowest – 6th
Sydney should win both of their remaining games, so they should remain top of the ladder. In fact, they could even lose one and remain there.
Port Adelaide highest possible – 1st. Lowest – 9th
This is a tough one. They have the showdown this week and then they’re in Perth to play the Dockers. They could win both and even lose both. So I’ll go one win and one loss. I’ll say that lands them in fourth place but it could be lower.
GWS Giants highest possible – 1st. Lowest – 9th
This is also difficult. They have Freo at home followed by the Doggies at Marvel. One win and a loss might see them finish fifth.
Geelong highest possible – 1st. Lowest – 9th
Geelong should win their next two against Saints and Eagles. They might take second place.
Brisbane highest possible – 1st. Lowest – 9th
It’s another tricky one. The Lions come to Melbourne to take on Collingwood who are in pretty good form. I believe they’ll be too good for the Bombers. In what is a flip of the coin, I’ll say Brisbane will win against Collingwood and finish 3rd.
Fremantle highest possible – 2nd. Lowest possible – 11th
Tough remaining games starting with the Giants in Sydney and Port at home. They’ll be playing against Port to make finals. I’ll give them the win without real confidence. They might finish 7th
Western Bulldogs highest possible – 3rd. Lowest – 11th
They should beat North. Round 24 against the Giants will be for a spot in the finals. That’s a 50/50 game but I’ll give them the win and they might grab 8th spot
Hawthorn highest possible – 3rd. Lowest – 11th
The Hawks have two games against Richmond and North Melbourne. They should win both. Could finish 5th depending on percentage but I’ll say 6th for now
Carlton highest possible – 3rd. Lowest – 11th
The Blues are in serious trouble with injuries. McKay and Curnow are both unlikely to play against the Eagles in Perth with several others on the sidelines. What should’ve been two fairly easy wins now become very difficult, and they will be fielding a near VFL team. Could lose both but I’ll give them one win but they finish 9th
Essendon highest possible – 5th. Lowest – 13th
Essendon have two tough games against the Swans and Lions. It would be a tragedy if they won both and still missed out as that is possible, but it’s more likely they’ll win neither and finish below the Pies at 11th or worse
Collingwood highest possible – 6th. Lowest – 13th
Collingwood could win both its remaining games, but to make the eight would require results to fall their way. If they won both they would possibly finish 10th.
