1. You simply can’t trust Carlton
Take nothing away from Port Adelaide. It was a terrific win on the road against the odds, and it further stamps the credentials of Jason Horne-Francis. In the first half it looked as though the Blues had him in their sights. Every time he got his hands on the ball, there were Blues players ready to pounce. But after half time he seemed to find another gear and his efforts went a long way in getting the Power across the line. He finished with 23 touches and a clutch goal in the last quarter. Those figures sound good, but they don’t tell the story of how much his run and carry hurt a seemingly tiring Blue outfit.
At the end of the day, you just can’t trust the Blues any more. Too often they squander sizeable leads. Too often they’ll play one blinding quarter and three sub-standard terms leaving supporters scratching their head asking how their form can fluctuate so much not only from week to week, but also within games. The prize for a win in this game was the further solidification of a Top 4 spot. Now they’re in a genuine fight just to play finals!
Losing Harry McKay pre-game definitely hurt, resulting in Lewis Young being brought in to play a role completely foreign to him. The five-day break has also been raised as a potential issue. But the Power only had one extra day off and had to travel interstate for this game. No, I’m not buying that one. If the Blues can smash seven goals out in one quarter and just two goals across the other three, then something is clearly wrong with the team’s psyche. You will see them lose form in a four to five week cycle followed by a stretch of games where they look invincible. We just can’t get a genuine read on them, and what’s worse is that it looks as though opposition coaches are able to change their tactics in the middle of a game and get the game completely on their terms taking it right away from them with little to no resistance. Is the problem in the coach’s box or out on the field? Whatever the case, the Blues look all but certain to have blown the opportunity to host a final and genuinely contend for the flag.
The Power are back from the brink as a result of this win. Ollie Wines was unstoppable, and I’ve already spoken about Horne-Francis. Curnow looked to have the better of Aliir Aliir in the first half with three goals to his name, but after half-time Aliir became a brick wall with forward 50 entries going straight down his throat with regularity. Port take on the Swans in Adelaide next week. Ken Hinkley will be the talk of the town if they can conjure a win there. Meanwhile the Blues take on arch-rivals Collingwood. If their season isn’t in tatters just yet, a loss there would be a disaster of epic proportions against an injury-ravaged Magpies outfit. Unless the Blues can turn this run of mediocrity around and win their remaining four games, chances are they’ll possibly be only making up numbers in the eight, or possibly worse. If it went down the path of Blues not playing finals, all eyes will be on the coach, and it would be a brave Michael Voss who would actually believe he would be worth persisting with in that role based on the list he has had to work with. I honestly believe that at this point in time he would be the coach under the most pressure. Carlton missing finals this year would be utterly unacceptable. I’m sure he knows it too.
2. Inconsistent Cats still in the mix for Top 4
In what has been a quirky season all round, the Cats would still be at the high end of extremes when it comes to playing their best and worst games. After winning their first seven games they then slumped to 8-6 before steadying the ship to win three in a row. Last week they were embarrassing in defeat at GMHBA against the Bulldogs prompting many to suggest that the improved Kangaroos were a threat. It wasn’t to be.
The Cats lead all the way and won by a comfortable 40 points and never really got out of cruise mode. Ollie Dempsey booted three and is now an automatic selection. Cameron had 19 touches for his 2 goals after a quiet week against the Bulldogs. Tom Stewart is back to his best just in time for another finals campaign. Geelong host Adelaide at GMHBA next week and will be hoping to take one more step towards a Top 4 finish.
It’s clear that North Melbourne have improved, but the fact is they still have just the two wins for the year and are arguably still a long way off in terms of their efficiency with ball in hand. The Kangaroos had over 50 more possessions than the Cats but ended up with nine less inside 50s. As was the case in their loss to Carlton, Clarkson has got them playing a possession game with a lot of short kicks. Hence why those stats may be somewhat misleading. Sheezel, Powell and Davies-Uniacke all had over 30 touches. In the Kangaroos’ remaining four games they have two very winnable ones against Richmond and West Coast. They’ll be setting their sights on winning those to finish with four wins and then turn their focus towards taking another step in 2025.
3. Gold Coast are still Brisbane’s little brother
No matter how hard they try, the Gold Coast Suns are still stuck in the shadows of their Queensland counterparts in the Brisbane Lions. Brisbane have now won 10 of the last 11 Q-clashes, and the Suns are destined once more to miss the finals despite showing more promise under new coach Damien Hardwick. There’ll be a lot of pressure heading into next season to finally get them playing finals in what will be their 15th year in the AFL, I think most of us believe they have a list capable of doing that, but with their inability to win away from home still a major issue, perhaps the problems are more psychological than actual. Rectifying this is the challenge facing Hardwick.
Many tipped the Suns in this fixture on the back of a undermanned backline hampering the Lions. It even resulted in Eric Hipwood being shifted to a defensive role due to the Lions lack of height down back. By the time the game was over, Hipwood had proven himself to be a capable defender and even managed to kick a goal on the back of what appeared to be a generous 50m penalty. The goalkicking duties were shared between Daniher, Cameron, Rayner and McLuggage who all scored two majors. Lachie Neale had 35 touches and a goal and did his Brownlow chances no harm.
There aren’t enough superlatives to describe 35 year old Dayne Zorko’s incredible year. Another 30+ possession game for the ageless star. It’s a shame he came into the competition as a 23 year old, otherwise he would’ve made the 400 club. Brisbane now find themselves second on the ladder following their eighth successive victory. They take on the in form Saints next week at Marvel.
The Suns were in the game until fairly late in proceedings, but they never really looked like winning once the Lions got that two to three goal break on them. Ben King really missed an opportunity for a big game with Brisbane’s somewhat undermanned backline. He was well held finishing with one goal from just eight touches. Flanders topped the possession count with 33 and a goal. Mathematically (there’s that word again), the Suns could still make the eight, but it’s looking unlikely. They travel to Perth to take on the Eagles. It’s another genuine chance to break their duck away from home. You’d be brave to tip them though.
4. Bombers sink to new depths while Saints fans bring out the calculator
I mentioned in the previous game analysis that the Suns were still a mathematical chance. Well, guess what! So are Saint Kilda!
It would involve them winning all their remaining games. It would also require other results to go their way. Their four remaining games include Brisbane, Richmond, Geelong and Carlton all under the roof at Marvel Stadium. It would be very tough but it’s not impossible. Then they’d need to rely on Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs falling over, as well as others. It’s a long shot, but one I’m guessing Ross Lyon will be promoting within the four walls at Moorabbin.
The worst fears for Bombers fans have materialised. It had been pointed out that their early season draw was favourable and that they hadn’t beaten any of the stronger clubs. Essendon have won just two of their last seven games. In this game against the Saints it was possibly their worst for the season. In a game that will go a long way towards determining a finals spot, they could only manage eight goals against the normally less than prolific Saints who booted 17 majors in a clinical and highly efficient manner. The problems at Windy Hill were laid bare on Saturday night. This all looks eerily like following in the footsteps of their 2023 season which ended with some heavy defeats. One can only wonder what is going wrong if they see out this year in similar fashion.
St Kilda fans must be all wondering where this form has been all year. They’ve won three out of their last four matches and taken the scalps of Sydney and now Essendon. They’ve also kicked a few decent scores which is unlike their normal defensive tactics in games. Perhaps Ross Lyon is allowing the players to play with more freedom. Caminiti, Sharman and Steele all booted three goals each. The rest of the scoring was spread among six others and they benefitted from accurate kicking with 17.6 for the game. Wanganeen-Milera continued his great year with 31 touches while Sinclair finished with 29. And my little Brownlow smokey in Marshall did his chances no harm with 26 touches, a goal and 30 hit outs. Next week’s game against the Lions just got a whole lot more interesting.
5. Melbourne supporters can ski again in September
It was a running joke for years, when the Demons were cellar dwellers, to suggest their so-called high society fan base would head off to the snow come September as their team would not be part of the finals. On the back of the narrow loss to the Giants, it would seem some of their supporters may have booked themselves in for some snow time. For the Dees to remain in touch with the eight, they really needed a win against GWS. They lead by 27 points at quarter time. The Giants more or less levelled it up by half time, and by midway through the last quarter, the Giants got to game high 27 point lead of their own and looked set to win.
To their credit, the Demons fought back kicking the last four goals of the game to eventually run out of time and lose by just two points. Clayton Oliver had the most possessions for Demons with 26 and is slowly finding touch again. The only multiple goal kickers for Melbourne were Chandler and Fritsch with two apiece. The Demons play the Bulldogs next week. Both sides may be on their last chance in that encounter.
Jesse Hogan is having his best year to date and he’s a genuine threat to Curnow’s third consecutive Coleman Medal. For the last three weeks he has kicked four goals in each match and is just three goals behind Charlie in the Coleman race. More importantly, he’s definitely part of the reason that the Giants are back in contention. Toby Greene booted three and is building his form towards the finals. Whitfield might be another Brownlow smokey getting more possessions than The Exorcist. They were considered front runners early doors, and they seem to be coming good at the right time. Their clash against the Hawks next week looms as a massive affair.
6. Dockers up to third and the dream is alive
Not a lot has been said about the fact that the Dockers entered the competition in 1995 and have not yet taken out the biggest prize. They were runners-up in 2013, but haven’t really been a threat outside of that. No doubt the club will be keeping a lid on things, but all of a sudden the door has opened for that prized double-chance. Their four remaining games include three sides who will likely play finals in Geelong, GWS and Port Adelaide. If they finish in the Top 4 they most certainly will have earned it.
The West Coast Eagles always lift for the WA derby. Despite being at the wrong end of the ladder, they defeated the Dockers in an upset back in Round 6 for their second win by a healthy 37 point margin. The Eagles lead by 13 points at half time on Saturday night and a boilover was brewing. The Dockers came out after half time and dominated the third term. Eventually it was the difference with the Dockers prevailing by 35 points. Josh Treacy booted three goals along with Frederick and Emmett. Serong took out best on ground honours with 32 touches and a goal, but Brayshaw wasn’t too far behind. The Dockers head to Marvel to play the Bombers next week.
Harley Reid loves the big stage. He was one of the Eagles best in the Round Six game and had 29 possessions in this game. The kid has a bright future and hopefully the Eagles can keep him. Jake Waterman booted three goals and was one shining light for West Coast in an otherwise bleak year. There were signs of improvement in the mid-section of the year, but it’s still quite clear there’s more pain ahead. It will be interesting to see if they can pinch a win against the Suns at Optus Stadium.
7. Pies still a chance to play finals
Collingwood are still up against it in terms of making it into September, but the door is still open. They got the job done against the Tigers, and as much as beating the bottom team is something that should just happen, it’s funny what effect it can have on a team moving forward. Next week the Pies take on the Blues who have clearly lost their way, and with Scott Pendlebury hitting his 400th game, the undermanned Pies outfit could very easily get the better of Carlton. And we all know how Collingwood just won’t lay down.
Nick Daicos can possibly bank another three Brownlow votes with 42 touches in another polished display. Daniel McStay is finding his feet at the level again after a year off finishing with three majors. Collingwood are still just a game out, and next week’s clash with the Blues could either bury their season once and for all or bring it back from the brink. It will be pretty much sold out and both sides are playing for their lives. It should be a corker.
The Tigers probably are eyeing off the end of the season. They’ve blooded some young talent which is a positive, but it will take some time to get them back into contention. Youngster Tom Brown had his best game kicking three goals. Samson Ryan looks to be a good prospect. It’s been a tough year, and the best the Tigers can hope for is to pinch a win against North Melbourne next week or possibly the Suns in Round 24.
8. The Bulldogs are the form side of the competition
Three weeks ago, most of us would’ve believed that this week we’d be reading the post mortem for the Bulldogs’ season. They’ve played Carlton, Geelong and Sydney since then. They’ve beaten all three and propelled themselves into the top eight with a healthy percentage. They outplayed the Swans to the tune of 39 points. Nobody has come close to doing that. The Dogs have clicked, and now we wonder just how far they can go. Whatever the case, something is brewing at Whitten Oval and Luke Beveridge may well still be there next year after all.
Adam Treloar is in brilliant form finishing with 40 possessions. Ugle-Hagan booted another four majors for the third week in a row and is finally becoming the player many had hoped he would be. It was only a few weeks ago that the Bulldogs suffered a heavy defeat to the Power and we were writing them off for the year. There’s still four weeks to go and some tricky games ahead, but if they maintain this form, who knows? I’m pretty sure the Dogs may be the ones who put the struggling Demons out of their misery this coming game Friday night. I’m prepared for that statement to blow up in my face based on the season we’ve had, but I do think the Bulldogs may have just figured a few things out.
What’s going on with the Swans? They looked unbeatable a few weeks ago, but they’ve now lost four of their last five and their premiership credentials are now in serious doubt. Heeney and Gulden still had a fair bit of the ball, but Chad Warner only had 16 touches and had little impact. Clearly he was targeted and it might prove to be a blueprint for other teams. If alarm bells weren’t ringing before up in Sydney, they will be now. They have to go to Adelaide to take on the Power next week so they’re facing another huge challenge. If they were to lose that game it would throw the competition and flag favouritism into chaos. Very few premiers have lost so many games this late in the year. They need to steady the ship or their big chance might slip away.
9. The Hawks are getting scary
Hawthorn just keep getting better and better. It’s almost criminal that they are still outside the eight, but we might just be a week away from that. The game against the Crows in Adelaide started evenly as expected, but after half time the Hawks turned on the afterburners and made light work of their opponents with a 66 point thrashing. Eight Hawks players kicked two goals including the skipper who seems to be enjoying some time up forward in recent weeks. The midfield is working and with Connor MacDonald playing high half-forward and topping the possession count with 29 and two goals, the Hawks are running on all cylinders. Jai Newcombe also booted two goals from his 22 touches.
It all seems to be working nicely, and as each week passes, Sam Mitchell’s stocks keep rising. His hard decisions paying off this quickly is something nobody expected. It would be tragic if they missed finals this year. The Giants in Sydney is their next challenge. It’s season-defining. Can’t wait.
The Crows must’ve thought they were going OK after Rachele booted their sixth goal and they were a few points ahead. Then they were demoted to witch’s hats as the Hawks kicked the next 13 goals of the game. The Crows kicked the last two as consolation, but that beating at home in front of their fans was comprehensive and another low point for what has been a tough year. Walker and Thilthorpe booted a couple each. Soligo, Laird and Sholl all had plenty of the ball, but when you consider thirteen Crows players had 10 disposals or less, perhaps their problems are an issue of depth. A lot of expectations were placed on them this year and it has been a definite fail by any measure. Matthew Nicks will be busy in the off-season trying to rectify the issues, but for now they need to focus on putting out a competitive team on the park against the Cats in Geelong next week.
10. This year is starting to look like a Bradbury-style finish is coming
The Swans have faltered.
The Blues are in disarray.
Just a few short weeks ago these two teams were the tear away favourites for the flag with daylight between them and the chasing group. Sydney are still somehow a game and a half clear of the second placed Lions, but their premiership odds are lengthening by the day. All of a sudden you can see the Lions in the box seat. They will possibly host a home final and don’t have the hardest draw left. Carlton’s draw looks OK on paper until you factor in their form and realise that a win against Collingwood or the Saints is nowhere near as certain as it seemed a couple weeks ago.
You would almost think the Hawks will get them. Luckily they have the Eages in the final round. But just imagine they flop and lose the next three and need to go over to Perth and win just to play finals!! Oh boy. You wouldn’t want to be Vossy at that stage.
The Dockers are finding some consistency but can still put in the odd shocker. The Giants look good but nearly let a five-goal lead slip in the final term against Melbourne. We’ve seen the swinging fortunes of Geelong and Port Adelaide. And coming up with a rocket are the Bulldogs and the Hawks. To say it’s anybody’s is an understatement.
It totally is, and I might do a ladder predictor tonight. I think it will take several goes as I need to see all the different combinations that are available. Even a time traveller could screw this up. I’m outta here!!!
