TEN THINGS I LEARNT AFTER ROUND 19
1. The Bombers are limping towards September
It was only seven weeks ago that the Bombers occupied second spot on the ladder, just six points adrift of the Swans. At the time, while the Bombers surprised us all with their heroics, the knock on them was the lack of wins against teams in the eight. Since Round 12, the Bombers have won just two games from seven and they’ve come up short against the better sides yet again.
With around six minutes remaining, the Bombers look set for victory with a 15 point lead. They could’ve taken second spot for the time being with a win and we’d all be talking about them as genuine finals contenders. Instead, they conceded the final three goals of the match, including Rachelle’s matchwinner in the final minute. Now, we’re talking about them as though they are out of the race. Well, they are clinging grimly onto 8th spot now and take on the Saints next week who are improving. The skipper led the way with 30 touches and Nick Cox booted three goals, but I’m sure they’d love to have those last six minutes again.
It was back in Round Five where a winless Crows came to Marvel to take on the undefeated Blues. In eerily similar circumstances to the Essendon game, the Crows scored the last three goals in the final six minutes to win by two points. Adelaide’s season has had glimpses of brilliance but is mostly littered with disappointment. This week they were able to put a major dent in Essendon’s finals aspirations. Let’s see if they can give the Hawks something similar next week. Ben Keays might need to kick another five goals for that to happen. This guy is having some kind of year!
2. The Suns forget to pack their good form when travelling yet again
I find it frustrating to observe the disparity between Gold Coast’s home and away form. And then I try and imagine how their fans must feel. And then I wonder if they actually have any fans… but I digress. This year it looked like the year the Suns would break through for their first finals appearance, but once again we’re talking about their underachieving ways.
One player that could well be leading the best and fairest for the Suns is Sam Flanders. Most weeks the midfielder brings in over 30 possessions, and in this game against the Giants, he had a whopping 43 touches. Veteran David Swallow showed he still has plenty to offer with 28 touches. Ben King has had a solid year but he had a day he’d rather forget finishing with just three behinds from his eight touches. The Suns could still make the eight, but it would have to include a win against Brisbane at home next week. In fact, the next fortnight is one of Intrigue to see if the Lions can end their run of victories at home, or if they can have their first away win against the struggling Eagles in Round 21.
The Giants looked down and out just a few short weeks ago. They’d tumbled out of the eight and were facing a daunting task against the Blues. They won that game and now have won three in a row and are fifth on the ladder. Jesse Hogan is playing well. He booted four goals and is snapping at the heels of Curnow for Coleman Medal honours, just four goals adrift. Lachie Whitfield had another 40-possession game and Tom Green had 34. Toby Greene is hitting the scoreboard and the GWS defence is solid. This team could still be a factor in September. They will be tested next week as they travel to the MCG to play Melbourne. A win there will all but guarantee they play finals, while a loss for the Demons almost guarantees they won’t.
3. The Eagles end of season can’t come soon enough
When West Coast defeated Melbourne by 35 points back in Round 10, many thought we had seen the worst of the Eagles and were now looking at clearer skies and happier times moving forward. Sadly, they’ve now lost their last nine games and have looked anything but an improved unit.
This week they were blown away by the struggling Saints. They entered the game without Waterman, Yeo, and Duggan. And we’ve seen how even one key injury can really cost them in terms of being competitive. One shining light was young Jack Williams with three goals, but there’s was very little to get excited about. Next week’s clash with Fremantle in the Derby will probably result in more pain in spite of the result from Round Six.
Often, when playing against struggling teams, it presents opportunities for teams and players alike who might not be at their best to find their touch. One player from the Saints who seems to have benefitted from this is Tim Membrey. Tim has had a rough year both on the field and personally. His place in the side was certainly under threat as was his career moving forward. He’s kicked five goals in the game in what will hopefully be the start of his revival. Even Zak Jones is enjoying his best football for some time, while skipper Jack Steele has had a couple good of good weeks. All in all, Saints fans have something to smile about for the time being, and the Bombers will do well not to take them too easily next week.
4. Jack Ginnivan has the last laugh
When you think of Jack Ginnivan, you think of him as the sort of player who can bob up and kick two or three goals to provide a bit of nuisance value along with his cheeky ways on the field. We’ve never seen him pick up 31 touches and provide the spark that inspires his team to blow away the reigning premiers by 66 points. Now that he’s added this to his repertoire, you can bet he’ll be somebody who will get the attention of opposition coaches who will employ tactics to shut him down.
The Hawks have troubled Collingwood in the past few seasons despite the Magpies being much higher on the ladder. Now, for the first time in who knows how long, Hawthorn have leapfrogged the Pies and are on the cusp of playing finals, while their opponents from the weekend look set to follow up a premiership year with failing to make finals. Connor MacDonald and Luke Breust both booted four goals each, pressing forward the case for Breust to play on next season. Will Day continues to grow as an AFL footballer. Worpel’s consistency is also clear now. It was a great team performance and they’d be a worthy finalist, but there’s hurdles to jump across over the next five weeks starting with the Crows in Adelaide next week.
I’ve always said it takes a brave man to write Collingwood off, but it would take an almighty turnaround to get them back into finals contention. So I’m going to be brave and say they’re done for the year.
They’ve just lost four in a row and the margins seem to be rising week to week. Nick Daicos is still playing well but they need more than that to end their woes. Scoring 1.11 up to half time doesn’t help either. Bobby Hill was their only multiple goal scorer with two. McStay returning is welcome, but it’s going to take him a while to get back to his best. Next week could see them back on the winners list against Richmond, although the Tigers might fancy their chances against a Collingwood team that seems to be in deep doo-doo right now.
5. Doggies fans must be wondering where this form has been all year.
The Western Bulldogs have struggled to put two decent games together all year. And the gap between their best and worst is pretty huge. Their past fortnight has seen them take two major scalps, in second-placed Carlton followed by the third-placed Cats on their home deck. The win against Geelong was an emphatic 47 point thrashing. Treloar returned from a week off with three goals from 31 touches, while Richard’s kicked two from 29. Ugle-Hagan has kicked four goals in consecutive weeks. It seems to be coming together at the right time of year. A trip to the SCG for next week’s game might halt their momentum, but Sydney might not have it all their way either.
The Cats are confusing once more. After three really solid weeks, what they served up this week was appalling by comparison. Were it not for the Bulldog’s inaccuracy, the margin would’ve been greater. Tom Stewart battled hard, kicking a goal from his 26 touches, but he didn’t have too many mates on the night. Even the great Jeremy Cameron was kept vey quiet with just one goal from just six touches. It was a poor night for Geelong who seemed well on their way to a Top 4 spot. They head to Tasmania next week to play North Melbourne. That’ll take a good effort, I’m sure.
6. Charlie Dixon breathes some life back into his career
it looked very much like Dixon was playing his last season. Subbed off against the Blues back in Round 12 with just one possession in three quarters, it looked like a combination of injuries and poor form had finally taken its toll. Well, a four goal haul on Saturday night might just be enough to convince those who manage the list at Port Adelaide that Charlie can go around one more time.
The Power midfield seems back on track. Ollie Wines is killing it, as is Zak Butters and Rozee. Mitch Georgiadis is playing the most consistent football of his career. The prospect of the Power playing finals rests heavily on this coming week against Carlton. It will take a huge effort.
Charlie might need to kick another four for that to happen.
7. The Swans don’t like close games
They say good sides win the close ones. Nobody can say Sydney is not a great team, but in the last four weeks they’ve lost three games by a combined total of just five points. Their other loss against Richmond way back in Round Three was only by five points. They’ve been terrific for the most part this season, and I’m sure these close losses aren’t a major cause for concern, but it is worth mentioning that they’ve only won by less than 20 points on one occasion this year. Games that have gone down to the wire have seen them fall short. Perhaps it’s time they addressed their often sluggish starts.
Brisbane have somehow made their way into the Top 4 on the back of winning seven games in a row. They’ve finally taken a genuine scalp and can cross not beating the top teams off their list of concerns as well. Dayne Zorko, probably the oldest man on the ground by some margin, topped the possession stats with 29 as we all wait patiently for Father Time to catch up with him. McCluggage has well and truly proven this year that he does know where the goals are. He had 26 touches and finished with three majors alongside Joe Daniher. Cam Rayner was also strong with two goals from his 20 touches. The Lions look certain to play finals now, and how far they can go is anyone’s guess. The Q-clash will be interesting this week for sure.
Sydney have now shown they’re not invincible. The chasing pack can smell blood. The premiership race is wide open. Sydney’s injury list is growing with Rampe and Papley both going down during this game. Parker and Adam’s did a good job keeping Lachie Neale quiet for most of the game. Gulden was great yet again. They didn’t really do a lot wrong except lose the game. That could be a concern. The game against a very determined Bulldogs this coming week looms large.
8. The Dockers have no fears against the Demons
Melbourne has suffered two very heavy losses against Fremantle this year. The first one came at a time when the Demons seemed to be going along OK, sitting 4th on the ladder with Dockers outside the eight. Fremantle embarrassed Melbourne to the tune of 92 points back in Round 12, and since then Melbourne have slipped down to 10th place after having won just three games from their last seven.
This time it was a very comfortable 50-point win. The stars for Freo were Brayshaw and Serong with 41 touches and 36 respectively. Michael Walters turned back the clock kicking four goals. Jye Amiss also kicked four while Josh Treacy and Sturt booted three apiece. Looking ahead, the Dockers face the beleaguered Eagles who beat them in Derby number one, but I imagine the result may be very different this time around.
Melbourne are still in with a chance to play finals, but their recent form suggests it might not happen. The loss of Petracca, and now the absence of Max Gawn, has really challenged their stocks. Van Rooyen and Petty are hardly natural ruckmen, as reflected by the hit out stats. Pickett was very quiet. It was a tough day all over and one can hope that big Max is available soon and they can take it up to the in form Giants this coming week.
9. Carlton get the win but still look shaky
North Melbourne really took it up to Carlton and could so easily have won the game but for a third quarter burst where Carlton were able to kick five unanswered goals to reclaim the lead. Prior to that it was North leading in all the stats as well as the scoreboard. Sheezel is a genuine star and his 34 touches and two goals really had the Carlton coaching crew scratching their heads. The second quarter belonged to Comben, who kicked three majors for the term and was a huge reason why the Kangaroos lead by 11 at the main break. Paul Curtis also gave the backmen headaches. He kicked three goals, as well. Clarkson has got them playing more competitively now. It was noticeable that he opted for a possession game against a Blues unit that can score quickly. There was tons of short kicking, and it almost did the trick. They take on the Cats in Tassie next week. If they play like they did on the weekend, the Cats will have to work very hard to overcome the young Roo outfit.
Charlie Curnow’s third quarter effort went a long way towards helping his team get this much needed win after two straight losses. He kicked three goals for the term and provided that much needed spark. Cripps and Walsh pushed hard all day for 29 and 25 touches respectively. Matt Owies kept his good form going with three goals. Motlop’s first senior game for 2024 saw him finish with three goals as well. So, the Blues got the win, but I suspect they may need to improve in that in order to get a win against the Power this Friday night.
Interestingly, on both occasions, Carlton have had just five day breaks when playing Port Adelaide. It certainly didn’t seem a problem on the last occasion. And losing Tom de Koning with a collapsed lung till the end of the home and away season won’t be helpful.
10. I’m calling it now. This is what my final 8 looks like.
Ok, so this might be a little controversial, and it also involves Brisbane winning all their remaining games and creating a situation where they play a home final against the unlucky Blues in Week 1 of the finals. That said, their remaining draw is favourable, as is Geelong’s who could finish fourth.
Another great scenario could be the Round 24 clash which will feed into the growing rivalry between the Bulldogs and Giants. It’s being played in Melbourne, and the Doggies will need to win that in order to play finals whilst the Giants might take a Top 4 spot if they were to win. Mouth-watering to say the least. Time will tell. Here goes:
1. Sydney
2. Brisbane
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. Fremantle
6. GWS
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Hawthorn
Feel free to comment. It’s just an opinion.