1. Brisbane are still shaky at home
After a year in which they were unbeaten at home, this year sees the GABBA holding no fear for visiting teams. And before you tell me they’ve won five out of their eight home games, let’s look at that in more detail.
They had those two big wins against the bottom two teams in North Melbourne and Richmond, they beat the Suns comfortably, then almost gave up a big lead against a struggling St Kilda, while pinching a fortuitous victory against an out of form Melbourne minus their best player. Based on that you should be anything but convinced of their push into the eight.
Here’s more food for thought. Of all the sides currently sitting in the top 8, the Lions have only beaten one of those teams, being Port Adelaide. They have four games remaining against Top 8 sides. A lock for finals? I think that call is premature.
For much of Friday night’s clash the Demons had the lead. After their scintillating second term eight-goal blitz, they held a half time lead of 23 points. It’s also concerning for the Lions the number of times they’ve conceded a string of unanswered goals during games this season. Unfortunately, Melbourne just couldn’t hold on. They only managed two goals after half time and defended bravely until succumbing in the dying minutes after a Neal-Bullen brainfade resulted in an impressive McCluggage goal that put Brisbane ahead.
It was a better effort compared to previous weeks for Melbourne so they can take some heart out of this game. Kozzie Picket booted five majors in a welcome return to form and Clayton Oliver is finding himself again after amassing 29 possessions.
They’re currently outside the right and in real danger of missing out this year, but one gets the feeling they have turned the corner despite the loss. A few of their better players who have been down for some time finally shone and with eight games to go it can only hold them in good stead. I guess we’ll have a better idea after their clash with the Bombers in a fortnight. I imagine they’ll beat the Eagles next week after their shock loss to them in Perth earlier in the year, but a loss there would really serve as the final nail in the 2024 campaign.
As for the Lions, I suspect they’ll win their next two games against the Crows and Eagles. For the most part, they’ve had little trouble dispatching the lower placed teams. It gets a little tougher after that, but they will be well placed after Round 18 if all goes to plan. Lachie Neale was well held to half time but eventually worked his way to a 29 possession game. Joe Daniher was his usual shambolic self, kicking one of the strangest goals ever. It was a lucky escape that could be the difference between being in or out of finals, but all this game really proved was that those suggesting Brisbane were back to the form from last season might’ve jumped the gun. That’s not the case. At least, not yet anyway.
2. The Roos have gone from easybeats to plucky
North Melbourne have had a good four weeks and probably should’ve had more than one win to show for it. It’s always amusing when sides like the Kangaroos go from being referred to as a basket case, a rabble, or just plain old shite to hearing terms bandied about such as brave, vastly improved, and now plucky.
The reality is they’re still languishing on the bottom of the ladder with just one win from fifteen, and as much as they are finally able to compete again, they still don’t know how to win. Against the Dogs they came home strong but left their run too late. The end result was a plucky 17 point loss. There’s that word again.
Hopefully they can find a bit more so they can pluck a few wins and shake up the competition. They have a chance to avoid the wooden spoon. Will they be able to get a result against the Suns at Marvel next week? I’d say there’s a huge chance. We all know how Gold Coast simply can’t buy a win in Melbourne. They do want to make finals, though.
The Bulldogs got the job done. There is no real shame beating the Kangaroos by three goals at this point. They’re another step closer to slotting into the top eight. They head to Adelaide next week in a game that will have ramifications for them and their opponents in Port Adelaide. The Power are definitely gettable. The Bulldogs will head over with some belief. Bontempelli was supposedly in doubt for this game but he put that to bed with a lazy 35 touches. It might be wise to put a slight bet on the Bont for the Brownlow.
3. The Swans might be human after all
We were all wondering when a loss would come. And it very nearly didn’t as we saw the drama that unfolded in the last two minutes. Your heart would have to go out to Logan McDonald. That kick after the siren was a stinker, and I reckon his next ten attempts from the same spot would result in a score each time.
It also seems as though the Swans tempted fate one time too many with their sluggish starts. It was only a matter of time that a five goal deficit was going to cost them the win. And the Dockers were able to contain the trio of Warner, Heeney and Gulden. Other coaches have would’ve been frantically taking notes. One can’t help but feel sorry for the hiding the Saints are going to cop next week. I dare say they’ll be fuming over this loss.
Now let’s talk about them Dockers shall we!
To beat Sydney at the SCG this year is one thing. To keep the trio of Warner, Gulden and Heeney to 23, 21 and 20 touches each. The contribution from the Freo team was a flashback to my junior footy days where nobody was deemed best afield in favour of declaring it as a “team effort”. Every Docker was given a task and they all did their part.
This win was also on the back of a 67 point thumping at the hands of the Bulldogs a fortnight ago, which had many questioning their credentials, but here we are after Round 16 with the Dockers 3rd on the ladder. The chance of a Top 4 finish is real. They’ve just taken the biggest scalp possible and should have a comfortable win at home against the Tigers. They won’t be going anywhere for the time being.
4. Gold Coast Suns: Beautiful for home games, hopeless south and west.
The Gold Coast Suns are one of the eleven teams from 3rd down to 13th on the ladder who are in the mix for a spot in the finals. This enigmatic club has had the dubious honour of winning all its home games whilst having won none when playing on the road. Even just one win from all their losses would have them sitting as high as 5th, but the reality is that they are currently sitting 10th on the ladder and if they stay winless away from home it will be another year wasted.
Defeating the reigning premier is no mean feat. The Suns held sway for most of the night and started the last quarter with a 26-point lead. But as we’ve come to expect, the Magpies chased that lead down and hit the front courtesy of Freddy’s brother, Nathan Kreuger at the 24 minute mark.
To Gold Coast’s credit, they responded with the last two goals of the game to run out winners by 11 points. The Suns are definitely a little tougher mentally under Damien Hardwick, who must be a little frustrated that they don’t seem to be able to fit that mental toughness into their suitcases when fronting up for games in the southern states.
Ben King returned after a week off and booted four majors. Noah Anderson was superb with 39 disposals, while Sam Flanders continues to impress finishing with 33. Next week will be the moment we know whether or not the Suns are capable of winning away from home or not. They head to Melbourne to play the Kangaroos. Normally a side on eight wins should be raging favourites against a side sitting last with just one, but North Melbourne are far more competitive than they’ve been for some time and we all know about the Suns in Melbourne.
The Magpies struggled to stay with the Suns for the first three quarters. The heroics of Nick Daicos who finished with two goals from 32 touches almost got them home in the last quarter, but on this occasion, the comeback didn’t get them across the line. This loss could be the one that costs Collingwood the double chance. The run home isn’t easy. They have games remaining against four teams in the eight including the Swans and Carlton. Those three losses to begin the year might mean they could still miss finals altogether. The upcoming clash on Friday night against the Bombers is huge for both teams.
5. The Giants will not play finals
It’s an early call which could no doubt come back to bite me, and perhaps I should’ve waited one more week after the Carlton game which would all but put it beyond doubt if it goes the way we think it will.
The reality is, that after winning the opening five matches, they’ve won just three of their past ten games. To put that into reality context, so have the Eagles, and only Richmond and the Kangaroos have fared worse. Most of us are scratching our heads wondering where they’ve gone wrong after such a promising start. Their early season wins were against Collingwood who showed up late this season, North Melbourne, West Coast, Gold Coast and St Kilda. Three of those teams are currently in the bottom four. I don’t think they’ve lost their way so much. I think they might not be as good as what we thought.
In what has been a tough year for Adelaide, one silver lining has been the form of Izak Rankine. This a game was no exception. The young gun got the ball 27 times and scored 2.3. The decision to get him was a good one. He’s arguably the best player at the club and he possesses that unique ability to impact the result. And boy, was he sorely missed while he recovered from his hamstring injury. Other good players for the Crows included Mitch Hinge with 31 touches, while Dawson had 24. Fogarty finished with 3 goals. Next week sees the Crows heading to the GABBA to take on the Lions. It’s a tough assignment, but we know the Lions are somewhat vulnerable there. You just never know.
6. Essendon’s season is hanging by a thread
Some were criticised for suggesting Essendon’s ladder position was courtesy of a soft draw during those first 13 rounds, but it appears to be accurate at this point after they came up short against the likes of the Suns, Carlton and now Geelong. They’ve lost three of their last four and are in genuine danger of slipping out of the eight despite currently sitting in fourth spot. In fact, a loss to Collingwood this coming Friday could almost do the trick, such is the tightness of the ladder right now.
The burning question for Brad Scott will be why the Bombers fell away so badly after half time, conceding 10.5 to just 2.3 after holding a narrow lead for much of the first half. Once the Cats lifted their intensity the Bombers couldn’t match it. Caldwell and Martin battled hard all night. The 45 point loss may have exposed just where the Bombers are truly at but next week’s result will confirm it one way or the other.
Geelong’s second half in this game could go down as the moment their season was turned around. The first half suggested another loss was likely, but the players came out after half time with real purpose. Jack Bowes had one of his best games for Geelong, finishing with a goal from 26 touches and an impressive seven ttackles. Ollie Dempsey is in the mix for the Rising Star honours. He booted two goals from his 25 touches. Stengle top scored with three goals. All in all it was an impressive win that suggests the Cats aren’t done with just yet. Next week’s game against the Hawks will be a beauty.
7. Hinkley really needed that win
I don’t think a lot of us could ever comprehend the amount of pressure that AFL coaches are under. The one most under pressure right now is Ken Hinkley. It’s fair and reasonable to argue the case to have him replaced. He’s been at the helm for 12 seasons now and there are no premierships, despite numerous top four finishes. Last year saw them go out in straight sets after finishing third.
Expectations coming into this season were high. The campaign started well, but recent form has seen them come into this round having lost their last three games and clinging to 8th spot. The win over the Saints saw Hinkley in a fairly emotional state after the game. No doubt he’s close with his players and wants to continue on as coach. This win will only serve as a temporary reprieve. Unless they can really turn things around it’s hard to imagine Hinkley gets another year. That’s the sad reality.
It was one of those typical Ross Lyon style of games, with low scoring being the order of the day. Lyon possibly realised that a shootout would favour the Power so he decided to make it a slugfest. It nearly worked too. It’s good to see Sinclair playing at a more consistent level again. He got the ball 31 times and was one of St Kilda’s best. Rohan Marshall was classy, kicking three goals from 18 touches, while Max King’s embattled season continued with him failing to kick any majors. The Saints find themselves back among the bottom four and will face the Swans at Marvel on Sunday. This could get ugly.
Port Adelaide have a very strong record against the Saints. They’ve now won their last six encounters. The last loss to St Kilda was Round 8, 2020. What’s even more alarming is that you have to go back to 2011 when the Power lost again to StKilda. In the last 13 seasons they’ve lost just just one time to the Saints. Had they lost this game, Port Adelaide would be sitting 12th on the ladder and who knows if Ken would be coaching next week. Horne-Francis kicked a goal from his 28 possessions. It wasn’t really a good day for forwards with Port ending up with eight individual goal scorers. Next week’s game against the Bulldogs will be make or break for both clubs.
8. Carlton can blow teams away in minutes
Even though Carlton seemed to have a certain amount of control during the first half of their clash with Richmond, the margin early in the third term was as little as six points. What we saw from the 17 minute mark to the 28 minute mark was a brutal six goal blitz that blew the Tigers off the park.
The Blues have a gear most sides can’t cope with, and once they flick that switch, most sides are reduced to onlookers. It took Carlton over ten games this season to find the right mix on field due to form and injuries. Now it seems the side is all but settled and each player knows their role. They’ll take some beating this year moving forward, but with eight weeks still remaining before finals, there’s plenty that can still go wrong.
Blues fans have been scratching their heads for most of the season at the continual and seemingly automatic inclusion of Orazio Fantasia. In his first ten matches at his third club playing predominantly as a forward he had managed just two goals and rarely recorded possession numbers in double-digits. Yet, when fit, he seemed to get the nod. The reward finally came with a four-goal game from 13 touches, including a goal of the year contender late in the game.
Patrick Cripps has done his Brownlow chances no harm with another 40 possession game. Lachie Fogarty is having his best season. He’s mainly in the side for his tackling ability in the forward zone, but on Sunday he slotted three majors. Some had been saying the Blues were lacking a strong small forward, but their small forwards kicked nine goals between them. With the likes of Owies, Fogarty, Fantasia and Williams on the park, it’s easy to understand why Durdin and Motlop are not getting a game. What do the Blues do once Jack Martin becomes available again? The Blues will be hoping to snuff out the Giants’ season once and for all in Sydney next week.
The Tigers have had a rough year. Whether it be injuries, poor form or even adjusting to life beyond the Hardwick era, it’s a pretty sharp fall from grace. They fought valiantly for two and a half quarters before the afterburners came on, but they weren’t terrible for the most part. Tim Taranto was very good with 27 touches. Old stagers in McIntosh and Vlastuin battled hard, but the Tigers will need to bolster their defensive stocks. Noah Balta went forward against the Blues just as he did in Round 1. He achieved the same result with three majors again, but the Tigers defence is where I believe he ultimately belongs. Richmond will be hoping to pinch a win or two before the season ends. It’s hard to see a win next week against the Dockers in Perth.
9. Hawthorn is arguably the third best team right now.
I’m sure many will disagree with this, but since they lost the opening five games of the year they’ve won 8 out of 10 and their percentage has gone up by 33.1 points. We mostly expected them to beat the Eagles, but the manner in which they dismantled them shows the sort of place they’re in.
They look able to match it with most teams, although the only caveat at this stage is the lack of victories against the top teams. In fact, insofar as the sides currently in the eight, they’re actually zero from five which seems to throw my idea of them being the third best in the competition out the window. But I have a sneaking suspicion that number won’t remain there by season’s end. Their run home includes the Cats next week, Fremantle in Round 18 at UTAS Stadium, Collingwood Round 19 and Carlton in Round 22. Even if they lose those their next three they can still make finals, although they wouldn’t go deep one would think. We’ll know just how good they are by the time they play the Pies.
All that speculation aside, some considered this a danger game because you never can be sure if the Eagles might turn up or not. After their flurry of three wins it seems the wind is completely out of their sails once more. They’re getting belted again. Their scoring has dried up and the midfield battle is not going their way. Some thought Harley Reid coming back in would get them home. He had a 21 possession game and was good, but the amount of pressure on the kid is palpable and people have to remember he’s still only 19 years old. There’s a lot of work for West Coast in the off-season. In the meantime they play the Demons next week in Melbourne. I dare say the result of this game will be different.
10. It’s beginning to look like a two-horse race
As you may or may not be aware, I’ll declare right now that I’m a Carlton supporter. With that in mind, the Swans and Blues are the top two teams and the chasing pack are slowly losing pace with these two sides indicated by a gap of 6 points. Notwithstanding Freo’s brilliant result against the Swans, but the problem is that the Dockers are just as likely to drop next week’s game against the Tigers at home. I would definitely change my tune if they string a few wins together or don’t lose by 67 points to a mid-table team.
The Swans have demonstrated from the beginning that they have stars on every line with not a lot of weaknesses. The Blues have shown this just in the last five weeks where they’ve been winning games by an average margin of 43 points. Their lesser known players have levelled up and are having an impact. So they’ve definitely found the sweet spot, although if that can be sustained is the question.
As for that pack from 3rd to 13th, it’s just insane that just six points separates them. Which two teams will jump up and make a move on Top 4. The Dockers did it this week and will need to back it up. You can never leave Collingwood out of these discussions either. But as it stands right now, it’s a Sydney and Carlton Grand Final, and being played in Melbourne is something us long-suffering Blues fans can get a little excited about…