Looking at every candidate for a 20th AFL license, what are the contenders and the pretenders?:
With Tasmania launching their new team name, colours and logo this week, the AFL became one step closer to being a truly national competition after the Apple Isle finally got its long awaited team.
But 19 is such an awkward number. We know the league wants even teams and a tenth AFL game would help them financially too, by keeping the broadcasters happy. The only question is, where would they put it?
There have been many locations mooted, but how many can actually work and how many are a pipedream? Which really have the ability to be seriously considered?
Let’s look at the pros and the cons for every potential team.
Adelaide:
Pros:
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If Norwood launches a bid, would bring one of the elite state rivalries onto the national stage
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Part of the football heartland
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Adelaide Oval can easily support a third team
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Norwood has expressed heavy interest
Cons:
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Unlikely support for a third team
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Any new team entered would affect the Crows more than Port Adelaide, especially a Norwood bid where very few Port Adelaide fans would defect to
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Wouldn’t grow the game to new areas
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The SANFL would fight AFL expansion at every step
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Dilutes the Showdown
South Australia has been nestled pretty nicely in the AFL sphere with its big rivalry in the Showdown and a beautiful Adelaide Oval that’s simply a must-attend on any AFL fans bucket list, so what would a third team bring?
If Norwood, a team that’s expressed heavy interest in making the leap if the opportunity arises, makes a bid to be the 20th team then it has a unique drawing point. For non-SA reader, the Port Adelaide-Norwood rivalry has been the single biggest rivalry in the stage. Bringing in the Redlegs from the SANFL would provide an instant rivalry on par with the Showdown.
But there’s some things that might pump the brakes too. The Crows would surely protest, since any members the Redlegs poach would affect them much more than Port Adelaide and put their status as the biggest club in the state under pressure. Overall there’s an unlikely chance a third team would get a huge market share anyway unlike another state (more on that in a minute) and the AFL has had an eye on expanding to new areas specifically which this wouldn’t do.
Verdict: Probably not, but don’t rule out Norwood making a pitch
Brisbane:
Pros:
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Ready made rivalry with the Lions
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Would provide Brisbane with a second team, the last city to not have one
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Won’t need to build a stadium
Cons:
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Not the best market for a second team
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Unlikely to lure much market share from the Lions
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AFL still heavily backing the second QLD financially in the Suns
There’s been some interest in placing a team in Brisbane, the only AFL city without at least two teams in the league.
There’s some intrigue given they’d have a readymade rivalry with the Lions (and a lesser one in the Suns), but whether or not the market can support it up there is another matter. They’d also have to find a way to get Brisbane resident on board when they’d had the Lions on their own for over 25 years.
But there’s been small pushes before
Verdict: If they make a serious bid, there could be some intrigue
Cairns/Townsville:
Pros:
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Far enough from Brisbane to be its own market
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Could combine with a NT bid, which gives it intriguing reach across the Northern areas of the country
Cons:
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Small market areas, Cairns and Townsville combined probably not big enough
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Similar weather issues to the NT
While it’s doubtful something like this gets off the ground, there’s been some proposals to bundle this with the NT bid to try to conquer the entire Northern part of the country. It’s intriguing, but very unlikely.
Verdict: Don’t hold your breath
Canberra:
Pros:
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Footy market
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Would expand the game
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Nice stadium set up
Cons:
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Size
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GWS territory, highly unlikely to get them out
Canberra would be a favourite if the NT can’t get a team, but the AFL has already said it won’t force GWS out of Canberra.
Simply put, GWS need Canberra. Canberra, not Sydney, has provided the backbone of its supporter base. There’s a reasonable argument that the Giants should consider relocating to the capital as it is.
Verdict: Not happening
Northern Territory:
Pros:
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The romantic favourite for AFL fans
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Could help with Indigenous participation
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Would give representation in every state and territory, if we count GWS and their base in the ACT
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No competition from other sporting leagues
Cons:
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Population in Darwin and Alice Springs would force any team to play games in both venues
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Not financially viable, would require significant AFL investment to keep solvent
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Unappealing weather
If you were to ask fans what location deserves a team next, it would be the final AFL stronghold with no team, the Northern Territory. Certainly it could be an interesting location given the strong Indigenous roots of the region and the lack of any sporting teams in the region to compete again.
But there are problems that cut heavily against the romantic notions of a NT setup. An AFLNT report in 2021 found the team would run at a yearly loss of $15 million on an average operating cost of $45 million. That’s a lot that needs to be made up.
Then there’s the weather. In the depths of winter, Darwin averages 31 degrees high humidity which make day games a difficult prospect. Alice Springs would likely need to be used for early-season matches given that period overlaps with the end of the Darwin rainy season.
Verdict: Not impossible, but may not be feasible
Newcastle:
Pros:
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Market area sufficiently separate from Sydney
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Surprisingly high AFL support in the area
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In theory, could co-exist peacefully with the Newcastle Knights
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Allows the AFL to land more of a hold in NSW without affecting the Swans or Giants
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Hunter region has a population of 600k
Cons:
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Newcastle have not expressed interest (as of writing)
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Would need a new stadium
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Further NSW expansion would result in wider fan backlash
Some fans will mutter and shake their heads, but I actually really think Newcastle has a chance of being the 20th AFL team. It has a good population centre currently untapped by the AFL, there’s a surprisingly large (for NSW) AFL supporter base, the NRL only has the single team in the Hunter region and it fits the AFLs current mission of sticking it to the NRL by invading their side of the Barassi line.
On the downside they would need a new stadium and this would not be a popular bid, nor is it one desired by the city publicly. But Kevin Sheedy might have a point, maybe this could be the dark horse bid for the AFL.
Verdict: Real dark horse location, has a lot of promise if the city is on board.
Perth:
Pros:
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Has the population and support for a third team
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Infrastructure already in place
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Possible WAFL team elevation (West Perth) could be intriguing
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Could help solve a potential scheduling headache for a 10th game
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Joondalup has already raised its hand to be the base for a 20th team
Cons:
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Would not grow the game
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Can they convince loyal Eagles/Dockers fans to defect?
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Would dilute the Derby
The AFL has made it their business to expand the game and this would fly in the face of that, but if there’s any footballing state that deserves to expand its base then it is the West. There’s a logical answer to everything the AFL wants.
Financials? The state already has a beautiful stadium.
Infrastructure? A quality training centre at Joondalup and West Perth could very well be an ideal candidate to be elevated if they so chose given they have Joondalup as their home as well.
Fans? Perth is expanding fast and there’s a lot of people on the Eagles waiting list they could target if they wished.
You could also get around fixturing nightmares of a 10th AFL game every week by, as the Roar suggested, having a permanent WA Friday night game rotating. Given the time differences at play, a doubleheader would work while giving two primetime games every Friday.
It wouldn’t grow the sport to new areas, but there’s no ignoring the logic.
Sunshine Coast:
Pros:
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Largest area unrepresented by a football team of any code
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Fits AFL philosophy of expanding the game
Cons:
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Currently no local appetite for a team
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No infrastructure
If the AFL is looking towards Queensland, there’s some logic to the Sunshine Coast as a way to strike at the NRL heartland given there’s no representation there. But can a team really be sustained?
If the AFL casts an open net for bids and the Sunshine Coast expresses some interest, this could be similar to Newcastle as a dark horse. I’d argue Newcastle has more going for it though.
Verdict: No, short of an official expression of interest.
Where should they go?:
There’s only three locations that make sense for me. The Northern Territory, Newcastle and Perth. I know I’m going to get some flak, but I truly believe Newcastle makes a lot of sense.
No, I am not Kevin Sheedy in disguise.
In an ideal world, I would prefer the NT. The NT Thunder or the NT Crocodiles have a good ring to it if they went that route. But will the AFL be willing to sink $15 million a year to keep it solvent? I doubt it. If the AFL, however, were to commit to it, then consider me changing my pick.
Perth is a nice idea and the potential to add a team with local ties like West Perth is a fun one, and the desire to have a third team is nice, but what will it add to the league? Another team in WA is fine, but it isn’t exciting nor does it fit the AFLs desire to move to new frontiers.
I’d argue Newcastle ticks the boxes. It’s a new area that’s friendly to AFL football and possesses the single NRL team and so isn’t a market that’s going to be hard to break into like GWS was finding in Sydney. You’d need a new stadium, but that’s manageable.
But I know NSW isn’t going to be popular. People want the Northern Territory to have a team, and I get it because I want that too. But the numbers don’t crunch, and unless the AFL is willing to invest copious amounts of cash yearly it simply never well.
For the heart, NT is my desire. For the logical and safe option, expanding in Perth appeals to me. But logically and keeping in mind the AFLs desire to expand, maybe the Hunter region has something to give us if we’re willing to look at it logically.
If I told you the AFL had a chance to break into a region that’s got no team, is friendly to the game and has a market of 600k people untapped, would you turn up your nose at them if you didn’t know it was Newcastle?
