1. Wasteful Demons blew it!
To lose a game when you had 69 forward entries to just 37 is reprehensible. To do it in a final is calamitous. The Demons had a pretty flat first half but only trailed by 17 points thanks to their strong defence. After halftime, Melbourne dominated the contest but found goals very hard to come by.
Kicking 7.11 is bad enough, but the real story comes to light when you consider that a further seven shots at goal missed the lot. Kysaiah Pickett had his radar turned off, and even the normally reliable Fritsch had one shot he’ll want to forget. On the one hand you can credit the Pies’ defence for their pressure and strength, especially during that final term where the Dees threw everything at them, but their misses were as bad as any, and supporters no doubt would have left the ground wondering how they’d lost a game where the ball spent almost two thirds of the time in their forward zone. It has been a bit of a problem the whole year for the Demons and it’s something they’ll want to correct before their Friday night clash against Carlton.
In contrast, the Pies were a picture of efficiency for the first three quarters. At the final break, Collingwood were sitting on 9.3 and had made the most of their limited opportunities to score. They did get overrun in the final term which will be on the minds of Craig McRae and his team, but they find themselves in a Preliminary Final to be played against either Port Adelaide or GWS. It also seems likely that Nick Daicos will return from his knee injury. It all seems to be falling into place for Collingwood.
Some thought their late season form might see them stumble in the finals, but the way clubs manage their teams at this stage of the season keeps us all guessing as they flirt with form and hope to peak at the right time. Collingwood now would be favourites to take the cup. Brisbane do look ominous, but surely this MCG hoodoo keeps them below the Magpies in the odds. Whatever the case, a slot on that final day does seem likely, and they were the best side for most of the year.
2. Is Maynard stiff or silly?
It just couldn’t be an AFL finals series without at least one contentious incident to give the media plenty to talk about. Brayden Maynard has been referred directly to the tribunal and, if found guilty, it will be season over.
Anybody knows the game of Australian Football could see what his intent was. We all love the way players like Maynard go about it leaving nothing in the tank. His attempt to smother was seemingly within the rules of the game, however, it’s fair to say that the fact he’s ended up with both feet off the ground and then ended up colliding with Brayshaw and giving him concussion means it may not go his way. On the one hand, it’s fair to say that it was a football action and he should get off. I understand that, and a lot of former players in the media seem to be leaning that way. You could also argue quite successfully it was a reckless and poorly executed attempt to smother. The powers that be at the AFL seem to have adopted an approach to this game that suggests players can make choices in a split second to avoid harming other players.
What that really means is Maynard could’ve chosen to simply let Brayshaw kick the footy and allow him safe passage to do so at the detriment of his team. So Maynard chose to try and block him and he did so carelessly, and here we are.
Even though I understand both sides of the argument and can honestly see the decision the tribunal makes going either way, there’s something about things like this that bother me. I get the feeling the fact he was airborne may cost him. But I also side with him for his tenacity and determination to stop Brayshaw getting his kick away. I think he’s a little bit silly but also pretty stiff to find himself in this situation. And, of course, many in the media have had their say, and we all know how image conscious the AFL is.
When it comes to the social media platforms and the mainstream talking heads, Brayden might end up being another victim of the sport’s ruling body being reactionary to certain narratives. I hope he is allowed to play in a fortnight. I’m pretty sure Brayshaw would too.
3. The Blues will need to play better to beat Melbourne
I’m sure Blues fans will be more than happy with that win. The first half was a strong performance and it looked like Carlton were in a different class. That said, everybody expected Sydney to come out firing, and they only fell 6 points shy of what would have been an amazing comeback. What we saw in the second half was more run from the Swans and stronger marking. The Blues looked visibly nervous as the Swans drew closer, so that’s something they can ill afford to do this coming Friday.
Melbourne will be seething after dominating a lot of their clash against Collingwood and will come out determined to make amends. A Carlton side that only maintains its best effort for two and a half quarters will probably come up short. It could’ve been a different story if the Swans didn’t squander a few of their scoring chances as well.
Sydney did very well to play finals this year after being well back down the ladder just a couple months ago. They’ve certainly found an absolute ripper in Errol Gulden. His 23 touches and two goals had a genuine influence on the game. He’s a player to watch in the coming years.
The Blues might take some heart in the fact that Charlie had a quiet one finishing with just the one goal from 15 touches. They’ll be hoping for a big game from him this week. Patrick Cripps struggled to get into the game in the first half but was better as the game wore on. Jack Martin will be a huge loss after being suspended for his hit on Nick Blakey. Not only was he Carlton’s most effective forward on the night, kicking two goals, but he also went down back late in the game and took two timely marks as the Swans pushed forward. Harry McKay will also miss next week after being concussed.
It might be a race for time to get Jack Silvagni fit enough to come into the side. The two encounters between Melbourne and Carlton this season have been very low scoring affairs. It will most likely be the same this week and we’ll see another battle of the defences. And if this one goes down to the wire, hopefully this time Marchbank will actually make contact with the ball before it goes through for a goal.
4. Harry McKay is fast becoming a liability
As somebody who has followed the Blues since the 70’s, I’ve seen some frustrating players through that time, but I don’t think I’ve ever been as anxious as I and many other Blues fans are when Harry is lining up for goal.
In the early part of the season, he developed a pretty shocking case of the yips. For a little while they seemed under control. However, during the Port Adelaide clash, Harry went off injured and missed five weeks. It seems after he returned, so too did his wayward kicking for goal. Early in the third term his missed set shot from 15m out directly in front was nothing short of astounding. It would’ve given Carlton a six-goal lead, but as it sailed left of the goal post the disbelief around the ground was apparent. And, to make matters worse, the Swans then rattled off three quick goals to reignite their evening and the control Carlton had on the game was surrendered.
Blues fans are now questioning whether or not his current form warrants being selected, and this notion is also strengthened by the team’s good form winning all five games that Harry missed through injury. If Carlton have a successful night against Melbourne this week, and the forward line functions well, it may mean he isn’t picked for the following game. In his last three games he has managed to score just the one goal and is averaging 12 touches and five marks. They’re not exactly great numbers.
Look, it’s tough singling out one player like this. Perhaps I’m being a little harsh, but anybody with a functioning set of eyes knows that there’s something wrong with Harry on the field. His level of confidence when shooting for goal is at a very low point. He is a beautiful kick who has forgotten this fact. He can roost a drop punt sixty metres with that raking left foot, and in previous years he was reasonably accurate. This year has seen a succession of inexplicable misses and if he’s trying to convince anybody it’s not playing on his mind, he’d only be fooling himself. It’s almost as if Harry would be better served sitting out the rest of the season and focusing on getting himself right by exorcising his kicking demons in the off-season.
Whilst I’m sure there’s a little glitch in the technique these days, what I’m seeing is psychological damage from this season’s kicking woes that he carries into each game. I’m sure he’s much loved by all at the club who just want him to find his kicking form again, but you just have to wonder at this point in time whether or not he is helping the team in any way. Against the Swans on Friday night he had very little impact. This week the decision was made for them. A win that results in a trip to the GABBA will pose a dilemma. Normally, particularly against a Brisbane side with so much firepower, selecting Harry would be a no-brainer. I’d say that’s not the case right now.
5. The Giants travel pretty well
The Giants record away from home this season, particularly in the second half, is nothing short of excellent. In fact, since Round 11, the Giants have won in Geelong, Hobart, Alice Springs, Adelaide and twice at Marvel Stadium. Now you can add a finals win over the Saints at the MCG to that impressive list. You would think that they might go into next week’s game against the Power at Adelaide Oval with some confidence, but they met there just under a month ago in Round 22 and Port Adelaide pulled their pants down winning by 51 points.
The Power have been very good at home, so you’d expect them to go in hot favourites in this week’s 2nd Semi Final, but the Giants have definitely found their groove after their two consecutive losses in Rounds 21 and 22. The story may be a little different this week and Port Adelaide will do well not to think it will be as easy as their last encounter.
One player they’ll need to watch closely will be Josh Kelly who was superb against the Saints kicking two goals from his 27 possessions. In fact, the entire GWS midfield group are flying right now with Green, Ash and Whitfield all getting above 30 touches each. I imagine Coniglio will return to the side as well. This week’s scoreline might be a little tighter than Round 22.
The Saints were a little disappointing in this game. It was obvious fairly early on that the Giants had too much run for them, and they found themselves behind by over 40 points on two occasions during the match. Whilst they did well to fight back and make it a contest, they never got closer than three goals behind and eventually went down by 24 points to end their season.
Many had the Saints not making the finals during pre-season. The appointment of Ross Lyon seems a good one as it does look like he got the most out of what this list has to offer for a good deal of the 2023 season. Early in the year they had a long injury list and were winning games that set them up for a finals berth. They never fell outside the eight at any stage which is commendable, but this loss may indicate there is work to be done. Ross will need to address the deficiencies in their list during the trade periods and via the draft. He’s a clever man with a keen eye for talent. With him at the helm, St Kilda are every chance to push for finals again in 2024.
6. Brisbane finishing second is huge
It was only just over a month ago that the Power were sitting in second spot on the ladder eying off a home final in the first week. Unfortunately they lost four in a row from Rounds 17 through to 20 which saw them slip to third with the end result being a trip to the dreaded GABBA to take on the Lions in the 2nd Qualifying Final, a venue that they have not lost a single game at in 2023.
As expected, we witnessed a very comfortable win to the Lions featuring a five-goal haul from Joe Daniher and a host of winners all over the ground. Now Brisbane have the luxury of having a week’s rest while the Power have a home final against the dangerous Giants. As I mentioned previously, Port Adelaide were big winners against the Giants in Adelaide just a month ago and they’ll be hoping for a repeat of that effort to give them safe passage into the Preliminary Final which will be against Collingwood at the MCG. Port Adelaide and Brisbane both finished the year with 17 wins each, but Brisbane’s percentage was much stronger and they’ve taken full advantage.
This will possibly be Brisbane’s best chance at winning the premiership since their last victory 20 years ago. And just think how much less likely that would’ve been had they needed to travel to Adelaide to play the Power there. More than likely we’d be discussing these two teams in reverse right now.
Despite the Power’s four losses, it still looked unlikely that Brisbane would feature in the Top 2 after their shock loss in Round 20 to the Gold Coast Suns. The following week saw them have a narrow win by just three points over the Dockers in Perth followed by a one goal win over the Crows at home. However, it was their surprise win against Collingwood at Marvel in Round 23 that set up their home final. A lot expected them to miss out on that one. They also beat the Saints in the final game of the home and away season to ensure the home final would be theirs, and I’m sure there was plenty of cautious optimism within the club.
Phase one has been completed successfully. It would be a disaster if they somehow fell short in the Preliminary Final to lose their only game at home for the year. Now compare this to how difficult Port Adelaide’s pathway to glory is and it almost seems unfair. With all that in mind, we saw how difficult the Bulldogs had it back in 2016 I suppose.
7. Three coaches still in finals are under heaps of pressure
It’s a little strange to think that three of the coaches still alive in this year’s finals are still very much under the pump. You would think making finals would keep the powers that be happy within the club, but the weight of expectation for three of the remaining six coaches goes a little beyond that.
At the top of the list of coaches under pressure in the finals is Ken Hinkley. If the Giants get a win this coming Saturday, it will be another instance of the Power finishing in the Top 4 and not making it past a prelim in three of the last four seasons. The knock on the side under Hinkley has been the lack of finals wins, and if they were to go out in straight sets this year, there will be a lot of uneasy discussions at the club during the off-season.
The second of this triumvirate is Chris Fagan. He might be sitting pretty after a win right now, but God forbid they lose their Preliminary Final and waste the golden opportunity on offer to play in the Grand Final. Brisbane have now featured in finals for the last five years straight. On four of those occasions they were in the Top 4. Sadly, they also have never made it past the penultimate week, and with this year being the best chance to do so, another failure will possibly bring some pressure to bear on Fagan.
We always talk about premiership coaches, and then we talk about coaches that can get you close to glory but are just not quite able to close the deal. Both Hinkley and Fagan have that cross to bear right now, and there’ll be some sleepless nights between those two during this time.
To a lesser extent, but still under some pressure nonetheless, is Simon Goodwin. Yes, he took them all the way just two years ago, so that always gives you a little credit in reserve. However, last year, the Demons were unceremoniously dumped out of the finals race in straight sets after finishing second on the ladder and losing two consecutive home finals. If Carlton were to beat them this Friday, that’s twice in two years. It’s a bit like a batsman coming to the crease on a pair after making a duck in the first innings. I’m sure he’ll be feeling it.
8. This finals series is still very much open
It’s perfectly fair and reasonable to suggest that Collingwood and Brisbane are sitting pretty right now. And they are the two favourites by some margin. Despite this, however, they are both not invincible. Even Brisbane at the GABBA almost were beaten by the Crows late in the season. Collingwood came into the finals series losing three of their last five.
After this week, it’ll be down to just four. But both of these games could very easily go either way and nobody would be shocked. The Blues beat Melbourne just three games back. The Giants are in solid form. Even if you think the Power and the Dees should win, there’s every chance they may not. And even the preliminary finals will be open to any kind of result. A small part of me believes that a week’s rest can actually be a momentum stopper. It’s not uncommon to see sides come out flat after the break. We saw it in 2018 when Richmond lost to Collingwood and Mason Cox broke their hearts. In 2016 we saw the highly unusual scenario where both winners of their respective qualifying finals lost in the preliminary final.
What has also been good is we’ve had a couple of tight games. Port Adelaide will probably be disappointed with their result, but blowouts tend to happen when you’re travelling and playing in front of a hostile crowd which can really lift the home team. It would be an ominous feeling playing the Lions in Brisbane right now, but they’re going to lose there sooner or later. Will it be in a fortnight?
This week will also reveal once and for all whether or not there truly is a notable gap between the top four teams and the two remaining teams outside of that in Carlton and GWS. The number of wins suggest that there is, but these two teams entered the finals race having won nine of their last ten games giving them the status of the form sides of the competition for that period. So whilst I know which of the two teams I’d want to be right now, to me there are still six possible winners of this years’ Grand Final.
Being a Carlton man, please allow me to dream…