1. The Pies look like they peaked too early
Magpie fans may be starting to get a little nervous as they’ve watched their side lose three of its past four outings. In each of their losses, they would’ve been thinking that the men in black and white would fight their way back into the game and eke out one of their customary last-second wins, but they would’ve been looking on in vain. Whilst the Magpies are still certain to finish in the Top-Two on the ladder, what isn’t certain is how far they’ll go.
On what we’ve seen, they have certainly lost their dominant edge, due in part to missing stars like Moore and Daicos, and against the Lions on Friday night, their depleted backline conceded its biggest score for the year. They’ll probably win the final match against the Bombers next week, and then hopefully get some players back for September, as well as some of their earlier season form. But for now, the Pies don’t look too scary any more. Even with Pendlebury turning back the clock and playing a strong game out of the middle, they seemed powerless to stop the Lions scoring big. It’ll be a huge fortnight ahead for the club, and while they are still sitting in a good spot going into the finals, they’d be kidding themselves if they thought there was nothing to be concerned about right now.
This was a big win for the Lions. Not only because it was away from the GABBA and against the top side, but also for what it means for their premiership chances. As well as the Saints are going, I expect the Lions to be too good for them next week on home soil, and that means they’ll be no worse than second on the ladder with a home final in the first week. Not a bad result considering just three weeks ago they were soundly beaten by the Suns leaving us all questioning their credentials.
Lachie Neale did his Brownlow chances no harm in this game finishing with 31 touches. The feature of this match was the Lions’ high score on the back of their potent forwards in Cameron, Hipwood, Daniher and Bailey all hitting the scoreboard multiple times. All of a sudden we can see a side that could actually go all the way with their strong midfield and multi-pronged attack as well as a sound defensive unit. I’m guessing after this game that their premiership odds have tightened somewhat, but I imagine the fact that the big dance takes place at the MCG might make punters a little dubious on backing this Brisbane team.
2. Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin will be missed
You would have to be pretty happy hanging up your boots with three premiership medallions hanging around your neck after having played over 300 games at the highest level. That’s precisely what both Riewoldt and Cotchin have achieved in their long careers at Punt Rd. You don’t have to be a Tigers fan to have a tinge of sadness for these outgoing champions. From being a triple-premiership captain to singing on stage with The Killers, these boys have left their mark. But sadly, in their final year, the Tigers will not be playing finals despite prevailing against the Kangaroos.
Richmond can take some solace in Dustin Martin’s late-season form. He’s almost back to his best finishing this game with 31 touches and three goals in the 29-point win. Shai Bolton was also busy finishing with four goals from 25 touches. Soon we will hear of a new coach being appointed and telling the football world what he plans to do with the list. However, at this point in time, it is hard to see how they’re going to fill the gaping hole in their player roster with the departure of these two legends of the club. And I know what you’re thinking as you read this, but I’m not a Tigers man. These two guys were special no matter who you support.
North Melbourne also farewelled former captain and club stalwart Jack Ziebell at the MCG on Saturday. His final game wasn’t too shabby either finishing with 23 touches, but sadly it wasn’t enough to help his side to that fairytale win. In fact, he’ll have pretty dark memories of his final years at the Kangaroos with wins being few and far between. Nick Larkey continued his brilliant season finishing with an impressive six-goal haul taking his tally for the season to 62 in 3rd place in the race for the Coleman Medal. Larkey has been a shining light in a bleak year for the Roos, and so has debutante Harry Sheezel who hit the ground running in Round One and has played consistently throughout the year. Once again he had over 30 possessions and must be in serious contention for Rising Star honours. North Melbourne hosts the Gold Coast Suns at Blundstone Arena next Saturday to close out their season. It may just be a winnable game depending on which Suns outfit shows up that day. And after West Coast having a win, the Roos will not want to have two consecutive spoons.
3. Blues fans can finally start to celebrate playing finals
Long-suffering Carlton fans were once again put through the rollercoaster of emotions this year after the events of last year which saw their team basically missing the finals by 1 point. And nobody whose butt points downwards would’ve thought this year would be when the drought broke after ending Round 13 with just four wins and a draw on the board sitting in 15th place. Well Blues fans, you can enjoy this one. Winning 9 games in a row was all it took right? It’s been somewhat of a Jekyll and Hyde season for Carlton as we’ve seen them play some amazing football as well as some of the most inept efforts during those fateful six weeks of consecutive losses. This week’s game against the Suns actually showcased a bit of both which would’ve made supporters very uneasy in the early part of the game. Let’s just say that Carlton pretty much didn’t show up to play until around ten minutes into the second quarter. By that stage, they had already found themselves forty points in arrears and looking anything like a finals side. Then Charlie Curnow decided to chime in kicking four goals in the second term to bring his side back to within two points at the long break.
After halftime, the inaccurate Carlton from the early season showed up as they wastefully booted 1.7 in the third term. The last quarter started poorly as well with the Suns getting out to a 13-point lead before the Blues hit back and took the lead once more. Were it not for a late shot by Noah Anderson that went just wide with just over 30 seconds remaining followed by our hero Charlie clutching a mark on the last line of defence 20 seconds later, Blues fans would be drowning in self-doubt brought on by years of failures. But the four-point victory means finals are certain, and Michael Voss is a modern-day Houdini.
The Suns were all over the Blues early kicking seven of the first eight goals of the match. It has seemed a trend in those years where Carlton play Gold Coast twice in a year that there often is a 1-1 result. At quarter time it looked like heading that way and that the winning streak was about to be broken. But good sides do know how to find a way to win from such positions and the Blues did just that. Even with Sam Flanders racking up 36 possessions and Touk Miller tearing it up, their aim of winning more than their previous best in a season with ten wins won’t be achieved. The best they can hope for is a win against the Kangaroos next week to match that number.
This year they were in contention for a while but they still lack that four-quarter effort week in and week out that is needed to truly push for it. A standout up forward was veteran David Swallow who finished with a career-high four goals and just seemed to be in the right place whenever needed. Next year under Damien Hardwick might see that missing edge that could get them to the promised land.
4. Jesse Hogan beat the Bombers on his own by 19 points
We’ve all been waiting how long now for this Jesse Hogan bloke to really tear a game apart. Up until this week’s game against a very lacklustre Bombers, his best goal tally in a game was seven. Whilst he’s been pretty solid this season coming into the game with 32 goals from 18 games, this game was the one most of us have been waiting for.
He booted nine goals from 24 touches and outscored his opposition team on his own by 19 points in a 126-point drubbing against an Essendon team that played like a team that was not still in contention for a finals berth. Such was the ease with which the Giants dismantled the Bombers that even the great Toby Greene was given a rest as the game wore on. Watching it was almost laughable. Essendon ended Round 13 with an 8-5 record and looked a worthy member of the Top 8. The writing was on the wall when they went down to GMHBA where they were smashed by the Cats and looked very uncompetitive. Even in recent weeks they had close wins against the two bottom sides that most sides have had very little trouble dispensing with. I certainly didn’t see a twenty-plus goal loss coming, but I’m also not completely shocked either. So Essendon’s season is over. They play the Pies next week and they can then start planning for 2024. Based on the second half of the year they have a lot of work to do.
Thanks to the Eagles beating the Bulldogs, the Giants could lose to Carlton and still make the finals. They will also have the luxury of going into the game knowing the result of the Cats and Bulldogs match from the previous day. If the Dogs get up, you will no doubt see a very desperate Giants at Marvel that day, and it would almost be a shame if we go into that game knowing that the Giants will play finals regardless of the result. It’s as simple as that. And, let’s be honest. Carlton is due for a loss. They’ve just scraped home in their last two games and may run out of luck soon. You would also imagine Sam Taylor might do a decent job on Curnow as well. Whatever the case, this season has seen the Giants take a forward step under new coach Adam Kingsley, and I imagine they will be strong next year. And my smoky for the Brownlow in Coniglio had another blinder with 31 touches and a goal, although some bloke kicking nine goals might rob him of the three votes in this game.
5. The Saints have proven me wrong and are playing finals
I was fairly certain the Saints were going to come up short again this year. Their early season form was great, but since then they’ve been up and down. Despite patches of mediocrity in recent weeks, their last two wins against sides that were still in contention for a finals spot were impressive. St Kilda have managed to end the seasons of the Tigers and Cats and both with comfortable margins as well.
Max King kicked three goals and has been a factor in those wins kicking six last week. The Saints midfield were busy with Crouch, Steele and Hill all getting over 25 possessions each. Jack Sinclair is everywhere as always and he topped the possession count with 38. The Saints have to go the GABBA to take on the Lions in what is currently the toughest assignment in football. A win there could see them as high as fifth entering the finals. If they play the way they’ve started playing this past month during the finals, they may win their first game. I’d say that their coach might have a bit to do with how they’ve been able to get those recent wins and remain in the eight.
Where to from here for Geelong? It’s always a little concerning when a premier fails to make the finals in the following season. Compared to the Saints, the Cats looked a little slow. They were able to threaten a few times, but they never really got close enough to truly frighten their opponents. A lot of their better players were down as well. Dangerfield was quiet finishing with just 13 touches. Tom Stewart is still one of their best. He had 30 touches and worked hard, but seemingly played a lone hand in defence. They’ll be facing the Bulldogs at home next week, and their aim will be to knock them out of the finals race. Geelong’s home ground isn’t quite the fortress it used to be so the Dogs won’t enter that game with too much fear. And as for the Cats moving forward, I can think of three or four players on that list that might be just days from announcing their departure from the game. Watch this space.
6. Ben Keays’ kick did not hit the post
I’ve looked at this incident a number of times. To me, it appears as though there was significant daylight between the ball and the post as it sailed through. And I’m not buying the idea that the ball brushed the padding as a side-one view will tell you that the ball passed the post at a height well above where the padding finished. So here’s the question then: Why wasn’t this reviewed?
This would’ve been a great time to check for the soundwave graph as it passed the post. I’m fairly certain you’d see a flat line and the original decision would’ve been overturned. You see, now we have a team that should be still alive in the finals race sitting there scratching their heads and wondering why things weren’t done this way. It’s a damn shame to think that if the umpire got that wrong he has effectively just ended their season for them. Not good enough for mine, and Crows fans can feel very aggrieved with this result. From my vantage point, it was a goal.
So, once again the Crows go down in a close one. Only this time, the goal umpire got it wrong. Anyway, that’s the way it goes sometimes. Adelaide have made some advancement this year and are proving to be very competitive against most sides in most games. Next year they’ll be a formidable side with the likes of Crouch still racking up possessions alongside Smith, Laird and Soligo. Their forward line was made that little bit more potent with the addition of Rankine. Tex is still firing. Things are looking very good for 2024, and hopefully, they’ll learn to win in a few close ones as well as learn how to win when they cross the Victorian border.
The Swans are set to play finals too, although losing to Melbourne at home may cost them a home final, so they’ll be pulling out all stops for that win. All this is not bad for a team who just six weeks ago were sitting in 15th place on the ladder. Isaac Heeney continued his better recent form kicking three goals while Errol Gulden once again got 30 touches. The only concern coming out of this game was an injury to Tom Papley. Hopefully, he can come up quickly as this is a player who can ignite them during big games.
If the correct call was made regarding the Ben Keays shot on goal, I feel that we wouldn’t be talking about the Swans prospects in this manner at all. In fact, a quick look at the ladder tells me that the Swans would’ve entered Round 24 sitting in 8th place by just two points would you believe? Crazy stuff all right!
7. The Bulldogs are the biggest under-achievers for 2023
All year something hasn’t seemed right with the Bulldogs. Most football pundits rate their list highly, and there does appear to be a decent amount of high-end talent included, so why do they look like missing the finals, and how could it be that they just lost to the worst-performing side of the competition at home?
My question is this: Why was Beveridge given a two-year extension at the end of 2022? Surely that decision is under the microscope. They only just scraped into the finals last year after being smashed by the Demons in the 2021 Grand Final. Since their come-from-nowhere win in 2016, they’ve really been just average. Losing to the Eagles when a finals spot is on the line is symptomatic of a team that’s off the boil. Even with the return of some key defenders, the Eagles were able to score 14.8 and looked dangerous. Adam Treloar and Marcus Bontempelli both had big games with over 30 touches apiece, but up forward it was only Rory Lobb who looked potent finishing with three goals while Ugle-Hagan and Naughton had minimal impact kicking just one goal each.
There is still a chance the Dogs can make the 8 if the Giants lose to Carlton next week and they win against Geelong at GMHBA. But I think they’d only be making up the numbers, and I also get the feeling their coaches’ box is getting a little stale.
And speaking of coaches under pressure, Adam Simpson looked dead and buried just a week ago after the Dockers demoralised his team to the tune of a 100+ point hiding. They were simply terrible and looked to have already parked the bus for the season. Nobody could envisage a turnaround like this within a week of arguably their worst game for the season. Does this mean the coach gets a reprieve? Nobody truly knows, but it certainly hasn’t hurt his chances of staying on, and he can thank the efforts of Tim Kelly out of the middle to begin with. He was superb collecting 32 touches and was involved in around half of all their scoring efforts. Jamie Cripps also turned back the clock kicking five goals to suggest he’s not done with just yet.
It was a much-needed win for the ailing club that now find themselves off the bottom of the ladder for the first time in what seems forever. North Melbourne could beat the Suns next week and hand the spoon back, but after today they may go into next week’s home game against Adelaide with some belief.
8. The Hawks let the Blues down for the second year running
We all know how Carlton’s season ended in 2022. What many don’t realise is that on the same day there was a game between Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs being played in Launceston which would decide who would finish in 8th spot on the ladder. With Carlton losing to Collingwood by a solitary point, even if Hawthorn had lost to the Bulldogs by two goals or less, Carlton’s percentage would’ve been higher than the Bulldogs’ and the Blues would’ve broken the drought a year earlier.
But, sadly for Carlton, the Bulldogs won by a margin of 23 points and the rest, as they is history. This year, if the improving Hawks had a victory over the Demons, the door for Carlton to finish in the Top 4 would’ve been ajar, and with Melbourne heading up to Sydney to face the Swans next week, there was every chance that the Blues could’ve snatched the double chance with a win over the Giants. Beating the Dees was a big ask for the young and rising Hawthorn team, but once again the Hawks could’ve given Carlton a leg up and didn’t. Despite winning the possession count they fell short by 27 points against a more professional and efficient Demons team. Worpel was one of the best for the Hawks finishing with 30 touches. Hawthorn might fancy their chances against Fremantle next Saturday to close out their season. If they were to win, 8 wins in what is clearly the first real year of a rebuild would be a fair effort.
The Demons had to shake off a gallant Hawks after halftime. It was a good hit out leading into the finals against a team of the future, and the Demons stood up well to ensure themselves the double chance going into the finals. The likelihood is they will finish 4th as all the teams above them are expected to win their games next week, but they’d be hoping the Pies don’t slip up against the Bombers and slip to second which would result in the Demons having to take on the Lions at the GABBA. It’s hard to imagine the Bombers doing the unthinkable, particularly after their insipid effort against GWS, but the Eagles beat the Dogs coming off a 101-point loss, and Collingwood seem to be in a little bit of a hole right now.
Jake Melksham is looking dangerous for the Demons. He finished with three alongside Van Rooyen, but it could’ve been more had he been more accurate. Rivers was solid with 27 touches as was Viney with 25. They’re off to the SCG next week. It’s a tough assignment and the Swans have won their last six games. You might have to wonder if the Dees will rest any of their players knowing they can’t slip below 4th and it’s unlikely that they could climb the ladder at all. It’ll be an interesting week ahead.
9. Don’t count out Zak Butters for the Brownlow
Butters has been the forgotten man when it comes to talk of who will win this year’s Brownlow Medal. The Nick Daicos injury has thrown the door wide open with Marcus Bontempelli just now sticking his nose on front at $2.50 on Ladbrokes ahead of Daicos at $2.75. Zak Butters had a period during Port’s winning streak where he was knocking up best on ground performances so there’s a real chance he will feature prominently on that Monday night vote count. His odds are a solid $7.00. He recently had a few niggles and his form during their losses wasn’t quite at the same level of his earlier season form, but it’s back at the top level now so he may make a late charge to bring him somewhere near the top.
Against the Dockers on Sunday, Butters was arguably best afield finishing with 31 touches and a goal. He’s been good for the last few weeks and a big game against the Tigers at home next week will put him right into contention. Port are likely to finish third which could see them heading to the GABBA to play the Lions.
Fremantle had their chances in this one but just couldn’t hit the scoreboard enough. In his first full season, youngster Jye Amiss has booted 38 goals and has a bright future. They’ll be hoping he develops into that spearhead forward they so desperately need right now. Today he was kept goalless by the Power but he is still in development and will improve. Right now, the Dockers tend to rely on their smaller forwards like Walters, Schultz and Frederick to do the bulk of the scoring. It’s no surprise the Dockers are the 5th worst team for scoring. Their defence is pretty sound, but their forward line is not quite there yet. Serong and Brayshaw do a lot of good work in the middle and got plenty of it again against Port, but Longmuir may look at trying to lure a ready-made forward to their club or he may believe Amiss is the key. Taberner seems a lost cause due to his struggles with injury. It’s been a tough year and they’ll be hoping to finish on a high against the Hawks at the MCG next week.
10. With the Top 4 settled, we may see some weird results next week
The way the Top 4 teams are positioned on the ladder could be the way it will finish, unless of course there are teams who want to manipulate things to benefit their finals prospects. I guess I should explain.
I would imagine that the likes of both Port Adelaide and Melbourne would not be all that keen on heading up to Brisbane to play the Lions at home. The Lions are undefeated there for this entire season, and even though the Adelaide Crows almost got the chocolates last round, eventually going down by six points, for the most part they haven’t been troubled greatly when playing on their home track. On a do nothing basis, you’d expect Port to be too good for the Tigers next week, the Lions should beat the Saints at home, Collingwood should be way too good for the Bombers, while Melbourne will have to play well to beat the Swans at the SCG. That’s what you might expect to happen, but will it play out that way?
Well, that all depends on how the Friday and Saturday results go.
Collingwood play the Bombers on Friday night to kickstart the round. As I already mentioned, the Pies should win, but they are also well aware that they can’t finish lower than second on the ladder due to Port’s inferior percentage. With that in mind, they could so easily put out a makeshift team on the field to give a few of their battered and bruised players an extra week to rejuvenate for the finals. So let’s say they get beaten by an Essendon determined to redeem themselves after last week. This could allow the Lions to finish on top if they beat the Saints. The Lions will be doing their best to win in order to ensure a home final. So, if results went this way, all of a sudden you’ll have Port Adelaide making sure they win so they can avoid the Lions at the GABBA.
Melbourne’s game follows the Port game immediately. If Port were to win and give the Dees no hope of getting above 4th, do they all of a sudden pull a player or two citing stiffness during the warmup to give those guys an extra week off? This is just one possible scenario. The week off between finals and the last home and away game was created for this very reason. I would think clubs will still rest players and put out a side below their best just as much as before if there was not much at stake. The Pies have the least at stake. Friday night could be interesting.
