You’ve probably heard something similar across various other mediums – running an investment portfolio based purely on AFL entities is neither a new nor an original concept. In fact, it’s second only to the alternatively named ‘fact or fiction’ style of segment that dominates every major football television broadcast, radio show, podcast, panel, and otherwise.
But what you wouldn’t realise is that when I’m not gazing into the stars to bring you football’s Austrologically accurate HorrorScopes, or ghost-writing the AFL’s most read* weekly periodical in Sliding Drawers, I am actually heavily invested both literally and metaphorically in the AFL’s internal stock market landscape. I didn’t get the nickname “The Wolf of (Robert) Walls Street” from playing hacky sack.
*(most read in a vast case study trial of three family members and that weird, alcoholic uncle that divorced your aunty 28 years ago, but still comes to family functions)
For those unaware of how your everyday, run-of-the-mill stock market works, traders are ranked in categories from 1-5;
Level One being a Beginner Trader
Level Two being an Advanced Beginner
Level Three being a Competent Trader
Level Four being a Proficient Trader
Level Five being an Expert Trader
Boring!
My position here at the Mongrel Punt is built on the back of my Level 6 rating in AFL Stock Trading – making me a certified Prophet Trader. Or was that Profit Trader? Regardless, you may find yourself now asking: What does a week in the life of a certified Level 6 AFL Stock Trader entail? Well, aside from watching more footy in a weekend than one man probably should, drinking more beer than recommended, and cooking some of the finest jerky this side of the United States of School Shootings and Freedom – not a hell of a lot, if I’m honest.
So sit back, unclip your briefcase, and ring that annoying bell to signal the start of trading!
Oh, and remember – don’t take life, Brian Taylor’s commentary, nor my writings too seriously.
I’ll be looking to maintain my portfolio with a sizable investment in six open markets. I’ll then periodically check in on my investments and make informed decisions as to whether I am best to:
Hold – Where I simply hang onto my current investment and watch as my profits progress.
Sell – This can be tactical, unlike my failed ventures into cryptocurrency and NFTs. Selling isn’t necessarily a cut-your-losses scenario, it can be a sell high after buying low situation, which is what I aim for.
Invest – After selling off for (hopefully) a nice profit, what better way to consolidate your winnings than to double down and purchase further stocks in a different market?
Market One – Damien Hardwick
Verdict: HOLD
Talk about starting your investment profile with a bang! Within days of buying up as much Dimma stock as my Mongrel budget would allow, arguably, Richmond’s most successful ever coach told Dylan Buckley in a podcast interview, that the passion still burnt inside him to coach, and that he would probably return at some stage.
Any way you look at this scenario, the stocks behind Damien Hardwick are continuing to rise at a rate of very healthy return. Whether it’s as simple as his name being plastered across the media; hinting at every time Gold Coast lose a game, cheekily suggested whenever Ken Hinkley’s lack of contract extension is raised, left-fielded as the losses for West Coast grow larger or even just his own social media presence, the name, image and innuendo behind Hardwick’s coaching future will not die off any time soon.
With people like Caroline Wilson and Kane Cornes putting Stuart Dew’s job on the agenda every other day, the media circus alone is drumming up all the publicity I need.
Whether Hardwick’s imminent return is part of the annual coaching shuffle at the conclusion of the 2023 season, or later on in the piece around the 2024 season, I am putting these stocks on hold like a midweek Centrelink call.
Market Two – Port Adelaide
Verdict: HOLD
These stocks will continue to appreciate, even if only at a slow rate, as long as Port Adelaide keep winning and the mystery of Ken Hinkley’s future still shrouds the footy club and commands headlines.
Coming off an absolute nail-biter against the Bombers at the MCG last week, now heading into what should be a walk in the park fortnight against Gold Coast in Adelaide, followed by Carlton at Marvel, the next few weeks should see a substantial growth in value, as Power go into most of their games as easy favourites.
But the potential of great reward goes hand-in-hand with the potential of great risk. My timing with these stocks will be absolutely pivotal, as the home and away season concludes. If Power continue their current trajectory and finish top two on the ladder, their sale value will be extraordinarily high – only topped by winning a final, or two.
BUT! Should they make the finals and bomb out in straight sets, my investment goes from hero to zero pretty bloody quickly. Will I have the cojones to hold out come finals time? Or do I take the easier option and cash out on the eve of finals. Time will tell.
Market Three – Nic “Ricky” Martin
Verdict: HOLD
Still ranked statistically as one of the best wingmen in the competition, my boy Ricky was arguably the Bombers best player in the side’s disappointing trip to Perth, with his side lowering their colours to the Dockers. But last week’s showing from Martin against the Power at the MCG seemed well below his regular impact.
One down week is certainly not enough to see me jump off the bandwagon of one of Puerto Rico’s biggest exports in both talent and sex appeal. I’ll be backing in my investment to continue his rise amongst the AFL’s best wingmen, and round out season 2023 with a certainly high finish inside the Bombers best and fairest.
With games to come against Adelaide (Marvel Stadium), Geelong (Alphabet Stadium) and Western (Marvel Stadium), it’s a tricky three week period, but the sort of environment where a 21 year old up-and-comer can really flex his credentials, especially when the odds are stacked against his side.
Market Four – Allens Fantales
Verdict: HOLD (for now)
This investment will epitomise striking whilst the iron is hot, as production on one of Australia’s favourite confectioneries is set to conclude sometime in the coming weeks.
Knowing full well that the boxes I have stacked ceiling-high in my spare room do in fact have a Best Before date, I plan on cashing in this investment in the dystopian near-future, when Boomers and middle-aged Mum’s realise that their balls of chocolate coated, chewy caramel, draped in a fact-filled wrapper with half the bio of a movie star cut off, leaving you wondering who did win the 1963 Oscar Award*, are no longer available in stores, and subsequently do the mad dash to buy their packets anywhere possible.
*For the record, Gregory Peck won the 1963 Oscar award for his portrayal of Atticus Finch in the cult classic To Kill a Mockingbird, narrowly edging out Burt Lancaster, who was nominated for his role in Birdman of Alcatraz.
Market Five – Will Ashcroft
Verdict: HOLD
Watch for these stocks to climb exponentially come finals time.
Will Ashcroft, unfortunately for the 19 year old, has two factors going against him:
He is an up-and-coming star in a strong side, playing in a strong midfield, surrounded by strongly talented teammates.
He is starring in a non-Victorian side. Don’t hate me for saying it if you’re a Brisbane fan, and don’t hate me for hinting at Vic-Bias if you’re a Victorian fan.
Neither factor is his fault, nor within his control. But both cause some slight deviations in the rise of his stocks to the average punter. Does this phase me? Not in the slightest. I took all of this well into consideration before purchasing these stocks, and I fully intend to see where they take me, especially with his Brisbane Lions looking like a certainty to be finals bound.
Market Six – Josh Rachele
Verdict: HOLD
I’ll admit, I was a little cheeky with this investment. I know full well the potential of Josh Rachele, and have been following his season closely. I love, love, love the current forward line at Adelaide. When you have Rachele, Rankine and Fogarty playing below the current Coleman Medal leader in Tex Walker, entertaining things will happen.
I had noticed a down period in Rachele, slightly. After such a strong start to the season from the 20 year old, I noticed a slight change in his on-field role that was beginning to see the small forward come midfielder not quite influencing games the same way he was in the first part of the season.
Like the Hawthorn theme song strangely boasts, I was riding the bumps with a grin, and I’m sticking fat with Rachele, anticipating Adelaide to be finals bound as well, and expecting a rise once again from one of the more exciting young players in the competition.
A trip to Melbourne to take on Essendon, followed by the Giants at home and then the Demons back in Melbourne is a perfect three week period to get back on the board.
Market Report:
Barring injury, it will be a boring few weeks for those who love seeing stocks in and out of the portfolio, especially as we establish some profit margins early, we will likely see more holds than a Port defender on an opposition forwards arms and jumper (I’m looking at you, Aliir).
With the Allen’s Fantales likely to be the first stock to go, I’ll be keeping a keen eye on all markets for a new investment potential in the coming weeks. Whether it’s a quick flip before finals, or another long, slow burn, we will have to wait and see.
Let me know in the comments section who/what I should be looking at in the coming weeks!
Like this free content? You could buy Jimmy a beer, or a coffee, or something to trim his nasal hair as a way to say thanks. He’ll be a happy camper.
