Is the Pick Six Curse Over?

Of all players chosen with the sixth pick in the AFL Draft since the turn of the century, only two have made it to 200 games.

It sounds as though the curse of Pick Six is alive and well based solely on that number. But let me throw another one at you to further illustrate things. Of the 22 players selected with the sixth pick, just two of them have gone on to become All-Australian players; the same two blokes that have notched 200+ games.

Those two are Jack Macrae (2012) and Chad Wingard (2011) and they have five selections between them.

But what of the others?

In recent years, Adelaide really bombed out. In 2019 they selected Fischer McAsey, who totalled ten games before hanging up the boots and walking away from the game. Behind McAsey in that draft were Hayden Young and Caleb Serong.

Ouch.

The Hawks completely botched consecutive selections with pick six by picking up Beau Dowler and Mitch Thorp in 2005/06, respectively. And who was taken in the picks after them?

In 2005, it was Paddy Ryder. In 2006, the Hawks passed on a bloke named Joel Selwood, who went to the Cats and would come back to haunt the Hawks, time and time again. I seriously think Selwood would lift against the Hawks as I watched him (and Jimmy Bartel to be fair) drag the Cats over the line several times during the Kennett Curse era).

2013-16 saw luminaries such as Matt Scharenberg, Caleb Marchbank, Aaron Francis, and Sam Petrevski-Seton picked up with pick six, whilst 2020’s Denver Grainger-Barras continues to labour away in the VFL, unable to secure a place in the Hawks’ best 22 in his third year at the club. Worrying signs…

But are we too quick to jump on the failures at Pick Six?

Maybe, particularly given the recent selections of Ben King (2018) and Josh Rachele (2021). Both guys look as though they’ll be 200+ game players for their teams, with Rachele just signing a big contract extension with the Crows.

And if we’re focusing on pick six, what of those who were taken a pick later?

Selwood, we covered, however, others taken at Pick Seven include Andrew Mackie (280 games), Jordan Lewis (318), Daniel Rich (270), Brad Sheppard (217), Ollie Wines (214), Jacob Hopper (122), and in recent years Bailey Smith and Hayden Young.

Hmmm, I’ll take all the pick sevens, please. A couple of Brownlows, Flags, Captaincies, a Norm Smith, All-Australians…

Bailey Humphrey was the most recent Pick Six, taken by the Suns and he looked fantastic at points in 2023. At seven, Cam MacKenzie went to Hawthorn and looked good, as well. In a few years, I wonder which names will be added to the list of those at pick six who followed the pattern of the last 20 years, and which will go about further rectifying the reputation of the cursed pick. At the moment, King, Rachele, and Humphrey look like they’ll do their bit.

The indicative draft order right now sees the Dees with pick six, however, with a bid expected for Jed Walter, it is likely the Dogs will end up with that selection. The last time they had it, they made it work, snagging Jack Macrae. It holds no fears for them.

Thank God it’s not with the Hawks, though. I’m not sure I could handle it if they find their way into that spot again.

 

Below are all taken at pick six since the turn of the century.

 

2000: Dylan Smith (North Melbourne) – 21 games

2001: Ashley Sampi (West Coast) – 78 games

2002: Steven Salopek (Port Adelaide) – 121 games

2003: Kepler Bradley (Essendon) – 117 games

2004: Tom Williams (Western Bulldogs) – 85 games

2005: Beau Dowler (Hawthorn) – 16 games

2006: Mitch Thorp (Hawthorn) – 2 games

2007: David Myers (Essendon) – 123 games

2008: Chris Yarran (Carlton) – 119 games

2009: Gary Rohan (Sydney) – 185 games

2010: Reece Conca (Richmond) – 150 games

2011: Chad Wingard (Port Adelaide) – 218 games

2012: Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs) – 230 games

2013: Matthew Scharenberg (Collingwood) – 41 games

2014: Caleb Marchbank (GWS) – 60 games

2015: Aaron Francis (Essendon) – 69 games

2016: Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carlton) – 121 games

2017: Jaidyn Stephenson (Collingwood) – 110 games

2018 – Ben King (Gold Coast) – 72 games

2019 – Fischer McAsey (Adelaide) -10 games

2020 – Denver Grainger-Barras (Hawthorn) – 28 games

2021 – Josh Rachele (Adelaide) – 34 games

2022 – Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast) – 18 games

 

Oh, and 2016’s pick six, Sam Petrevski-Seton was delisted less than a month ago by the Eagles after they finished last. That’s how well he was going.

In conclusion… please, not Hawthorn… please, not Hawthorn. Not again…

 

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