Fewer games mean fewer things to learn. It’s basic maths, people!
Here’s Gab Rossi with seven things he learnt after Round 14
- Port Adelaide are the form side of the competition
It’s still a little hard to believe where the Power are at after what was a very ordinary 2022 campaign. This looked like a club going nowhere with a coach that would be lucky to see out the season.
14 rounds in and we have a genuine challenger for the premiership and they’ve increased their record winning streak to eleven games now. The hallmark of a good team is when their form players don’t fire, someone else steps up. In the last few weeks, we’ve seen Zak Butters tearing opposition teams apart. He still had a solid game with 23 touches, but if Chris Scott was able to keep him under control, there were the likes of Houston, Wines and Rozee to take care of, and this year’s Cats don’t seem to be up to the level of keeping that many guns under control.
Port’s second half was the stuff top teams are made of. The Cats really took it up to them in the first two quarters and lead by seven points at the main break. A third-quarter burst of seven goals pretty much put the game out of reach for Geelong and the Power eventually went on to win by a decisive 38 points in a powerful display. The combination of Finlayson and Marshall finished with seven goals between them, and if one of these guys has a quiet one down the track, chances are Charlie Dixon will step up. A tricky game awaits the Power after the bye when they take on the Bombers at the MCG in Round 16. They’ll need to break the emerging trend of teams coming out flat after a week off to extend their winning streak to 12.
Whilst a loss to the Power in Adelaide is hardly an unexpected result, the threat of last year’s premiers not making the finals is a distinct possibility on the back of such a defeat. With just six wins on the board from 13 games, the Cats will now have to find another six or seven wins from their remaining ten if they want to be a part of September action. Another injury blow to Patrick Dangerfield will not help their chances of getting the better of Melbourne in Geelong next round, but there’s also been the noticeable drop-off in form from star forward Jeremy Cameron. Arguably the Cats’ best player for the first half of the season, it seems his better form coincided nicely with Geelong’s wins. It’s certainly not all down to one man, but I’m sure the fans and coaching staff alike would like to see him back to kicking more than one or two goals a game.
An anomaly of this year’s fixture is that the Power will be playing Geelong again in just seven weeks. Whilst the task might be a lot tougher than taking them on in their home state, if the Power were to win that, it could be the knock-out punch that sees the Cats miss the cut. There are quite a few tough games besides that to contend with for Geelong. If they get through it successfully, they would’ve fully earned their spot.
- I can’t take the Lions seriously if they can’t win on the road
The Lions have five more games remaining at the GABBA as well as one against the Suns. It’s likely that they’ll win those six games, and those six wins alone could be enough to give them a top 4 spot. However, it’s been well documented that there’s a huge disparity between their form at home against their away form. Unless that disparity is addressed, I don’t see Brisbane as a genuine threat this year.
The Lions also had their fair share of trouble shaking off an undermanned Sydney Swans in this game, although booting 6.14 after halftime might’ve kept the Swans in the game longer than they should have been. Zac Bailey was one of the Lions’ best with 26 touches and two goals, although he also had three behinds limiting the damage he caused. Lachie Neale dominated with 29 touches while Josh Dunkley showed what a great pickup he has been with 28. Brisbane head to Marvel Stadium in Round 15 to take on the Saints. They simply have to win this game if they want to be taken as a serious challenger to this year’s premiership.
Sydney came into this game a few men down and many expected them to be blown off the park by the Lions at home. They stayed in touch for most of the game but will take little comfort from the fact that any hopes of finals have all but been dashed after this loss. The Swans should return to the winners’ list next week when they take on the Eagles at the SCG. They get to stay home again the following week to take on Geelong. That could be an interesting game for both clubs as they’re both facing uncertainty when it comes to the prospect of a finals appearance this season. Luke Parker fought valiantly for his 24 touches and a goal while Errol Gulden continued his good season with 27 touches and two majors. Young gun Angus Sheldrick picked up 19 touches for two goals in just the sixth game of his AFL career. The 19-year-old did his best to be a possible Rising Star nominee for Round 14.
- Don’t forget about the Giants just yet
A month ago the Giants sat in the bottom 4 with just three wins, and whilst they hadn’t suffered too many losses and were reasonably competitive in most games, any talk of finals might have resulted in a quizzical look. Since then, they’ve won three of their past four including an impressive win in Geelong. Josh Kelly returned to the side after a three-week absence due to a hamstring strain. He was arguably best on ground, booting three goals from his 33 touches. Toby Greene starred once more with four goals, while Jake Riccardi had the best goal tally of his career with a bag of five majors.
There was plenty to like about the Giants in this game, but they’ll be faced with a huge hurdle after next week’s bye when they meet the Demons at the MCG in Round 16. They have six wins from 14 games and can’t afford to lose many more if they want to have any chance of playing finals. Whatever the case, the manner in which they dismantled the Dockers will ensure none of their opponents will take them lightly moving forward.
The Dockers’ loss at home to the Tigers last round was disappointing after their commendable four-game winning streak. What some may have thought was a hiccup has turned into a fortnight that the club would rather forget. Being beaten by the Giants by 70 points is a result not many saw coming. They were beaten all over the ground and looked out of sorts and unable to score. It seems to be a return to their early season form where scoring was laborious and ball movement was clunky. One gets the feeling the loss of ruckman Sean Darcy has really unsettled the team as their dip in form has coincided with his absence. This was the biggest loss that the Dockers have suffered under Justin Longmuir. No doubt he’ll be frantically looking at ways to get their season back on track, and it will have to start next week when they take on Essendon at Optus Stadium. A loss there may put their season out of its misery once and for all.
- Cotchin turns back the clock in his 300th
There aren’t too many players who come with the tag of “triple premiership captain”. Two that spring to mind immediately in the modern era are Luke Hodge and Michael Voss. Yet, despite winning a Brownlow, it seems Cotchin is the forgotten man of this trio. While he is no doubt a highly respected player, it seems his low-key style of play when compared to the other two means he isn’t revered in the same way unless you’re a Tigers fan.
On Saturday, Cotchin ran out wearing the yellow and black for the 300th time. Those who think he was little chance of playing on next season might have to reconsider. He was one of the Tigers’ best with 29 touches and two goals in a display that was reminiscent of his peak years. And that effort contributed in a big way to a gutsy win which now has Richmond just half a game outside the 8 after looking like being no chance of playing finals just a few weeks ago. It’s amazing what three wins in a row can do, but these three wins came against quality opposition with two interstate trips.
The Richmond season is very much alive, and with Dusty firing, as well as Taranto looking on pace with some of the other Brownlow fancies, 2023 is not over by any means for the club, and it might not be over for Trent Cotchin either.
St Kilda came out of the blocks well and looked like they were going to control the game in the first quarter, but by the end of the term, the Tigers had wrestled control back kicking six goals to one after the Saints had the first four on the board. Richmond had a ten point lead at quarter time, and whilst St Kilda stayed within a few goals for the remainder of the match, they never regained the lead at any stage and eventually went down by 20 points. The Saints are still sitting 5th on the ladder with eight wins, but having won just four of their past nine matches suggests they are no certainty to remain there. The statistical battle was fairly even for both teams, but the difference may have come down to the fact that the Tigers were more efficient inside 50. Richmond had three less entries than the Saints yet managed 25 scoring shots to just 15. Crouch and Sinclair were both very good with more than 30 disposals each, but I imagine Ross Lyon will be looking at why they weren’t able to convert more when going forward. A home game against the Lions awaits them next week in a game that could go a long way to deciding their fate for a finals spot. The Lions will be desperate for an away win, but it’ll be hard to tip that based on their recent history,
- The Blues kicked the same number of goals this week as they did in their last three
It’s almost inconceivable to see a side who couldn’t have been more inept when it came to scoring in their previous 3 weeks then come out onto the MCG on Sunday and slam on nine goals in the second quarter after managing just one in the first, and then go on to kick 18 for the game to match the three consecutive weeks where the Blues only managed six goals in each. We can only hope for the sake of Carlton fans that this could be the circuit-breaker in their season where these low-scoring matches might be a thing of the past.
As it stands now, the Blues still have a slight chance of making the finals, but it does seem unlikely they’ll get there. After all, it would require Carlton losing no more than two or possibly three games out of their remaining nine to have any real chance. The Blues had a better-than-normal spread of goal kickers with nine players registering majors, the best of which were Cripps and McKay with three apiece. Harry celebrated his 100th game in style, and when Patrick Cripps starts kicking truly for goal, you know the Blues might just be on. Now they have a week off to analyse what they did so well in this game before facing the Hawks to try and keep their season alive in Round 16.
The Suns would’ve come into this game full of confidence. They’ve been in great form knocking off two top 8 teams to put themselves in calculations for their first finals appearance. Early on, it looked very much as though the Blues might have been in for another tough day after they kicked the two opening goals of the game and the Blues scored their one and only first-quarter goal at the 21-minute mark. The momentum shifted fiercely from the start of the second quarter and the Suns dropped right away. By halftime the Blues had ten goals on the board to just two and the game was all but over.
No doubt Stewart Dew will be disappointed at the lack of pressure from his boys during that period, but it is worth noting that Carlton’s tackle count this week was more than double their previous offering of just 33 against the Bombers. The Blues meant business and simply had a point to prove, while the Suns seemed to join their cross-town counterparts in the Lions by putting on a poor performance at the G. The Suns will be looking to make amends against the Hawks next week in order to stay in touch.
- Cody Weightman is up there with the best small forwards
Most of the better sides in the competition have some of the best small forwards going around. Collingwood has Elliott and Ginnivan, Port Adelaide have Junior Rioli, Melbourne has Pickett and the Lions have Cameron and Bailey. I’ve probably missed a few there, but the point is that we often underestimate the value of quality small forwards, opting mainly to focus on the key positions. Cody Weightman is definitely one you can add to that list of quality smalls near goal. He missed some games early this year through injury but has made a big impact kicking 19 goals from ten games including a best-on-ground performance against the Kangaroos with six.
As well as crumbing goals like any small forward is noted for, he is also strong in the air and on a lead. His game today could’ve been the difference as the Roos challenged hard, and if he keeps hitting the scoreboard, it will go a long way towards getting the Bulldogs into the cut and thrust of September. Best on ground honours could also be shared with Bontempelli who had the ball 32 times kicking three majors. After next week’s break, the Dogs face the Dockers at Marvel in a must-win game.
Watching Kangaroos games is hard enough for me and I’m not even a Roos supporter. I see them each week playing decent footy without getting the result. If I’m feeling the frustration, I can only imagine how hard it is for their fans. They had their chances this week but were unable to, once again, kick that one or two goals to get them in front at any stage later in the game to really make the Bulldogs nervous. Each time they drew nearer, the Dogs would answer and that’s pretty much how the whole second half played out. Nick Larkey and Jaidyn Stephenson both kicked three and were lively. Larkey has signed a lengthy deal with North Melbourne in a show of commitment to the club which is great news for the club and its fan base. The Kangaroos have the break next week before they have a tough assignment against the Crows in Adelaide come Round 16. There’s a win coming somewhere I imagine – or is there?
- The curse of the bye is still real
Last week we had four teams coming off a bye. Two of them in Sydney and St Kilda actually played against one another so at least one of them had to win after their break. However, the other two in Fremantle and the Lions both lost when entering the game as favourites. This week we only had two teams coming off the bye in Geelong and Gold Coast. There’s no real shock in the Cats going down to the Power over at Adelaide Oval, although it’s worth noting that despite having fresh legs from a week off that they did seemingly fade out of the game as it wore on conceding 11 goals to just four after half time.
Gold Coast also had a week off, and they came up against a team who had lost six straight games that was scoring below 60 for their last five games. Admittedly the Suns don’t get to play at the MCG too often, and after spending their two weeks prior to the bye in Darwin followed by going home to tropical conditions on the Gold Coast, perhaps acclimatising to a crisp June day in Melbourne proved difficult. However, we expected a more spirited performance than what we saw considering they could’ve been on the cusp of a top 8 spot with a win against the Blues.
One can’t help wondering if coming off a bye had anything to do with the flatness we saw from the Suns this round. If this bye curse is genuinely a thing, we’ll certainly have a better idea after next round. Six teams rested this week in Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Essendon, Melbourne and West Coast. Melbourne take on Geelong at GMHBA in what will be a tough game for the Demons. Collingwood host the Crows at the MCG. The Suns take on Hawthorn at Heritage Bank Stadium. Fremantle host the Bombers in Perth, and lastly, West Coast play the Swans in Sydney. Looking at those games, other than Collingwood and the Crows who both rested this week and play each other, there’s a very real chance that all those games will go against the teams coming off the bye.
Just remember, this concept of a mid-season break was designed to benefit the players and keep them fresh. I know it’s a little early in proceedings, but it also seems to halt any momentum teams may have gathered when you consider the recent form of teams like Fremantle and now the Gold Coast who had strung wins together before the break. I’ll be sure to give an update in this same space next week.
