Answering Your Questions for the 2024 AFL Draft
The AFL Draft has snuck up on me a bit, as I haven’t even begun my final phantom draft (keep your eyes peeled for that one). However, like last year, I thought I would answer some questions in a Q&A format to give some information and clarity surrounding the draft this year.
After all, I am the draft/off-season guy, and I am a man of the people.
Let’s begin:
Rich Anderson gets us started with a couple: The Camporeale boys. Do you see these two as ‘sure things’ as most Carlton supporters do?
Is this the last year before draft points are adjusted to devalue later picks a little more correctly?
And lastly, which player do you think has the most ‘go home factor’ about them in this year’s first round? Will it impact where he is selected?
I wouldn’t say the Camporeale boys are necessarily ‘sure things’. Both are considered to be mid-to-late draft picks and aren’t likely to be picked before the Blues’ second pick in the AFL draft, with Ben probably a bit above Lucas at this stage. That said, they’re certainly good prospects when you consider what a deep draft this is.
You’re correct as far as the draft points are concerned. In 2025 the 20 per cent discount will be reduced to 10 per cent and the new DVI will see points attached to only the first 54 picks (down from the current system of the first 73 picks). In addition, teams won’t be able to go so far into draft deficits to match bids. It’s a welcome change as far as I’m concerned.
I haven’t seen anything so far related to a go home concern. Instead, you might find this to be more of a team issue, with some more fearless in going interstate than others.
Jo Read asks: Will West Coast trade one of next year’s picks to get an extra pick this year? Also, who would be the better pick for the Eagles – Bo Allan or Xavier Lindsay? (I realise they could both be gone by the time of the Eagles pick).
Similarly, Thisal Balasuriya and Patty Mags asks of Essendon: Will Essendon trade back into this year’s draft if someone in their wishlist fell through top 10?/ Does Essendon trade back in this year to get a first rounder, plus Kako bid.
I think quite a few teams would be keen to trade back into the 2024 draft as it’s unanimously seen as stronger than the 2025 crop, but willing suitors to move back into 2025 might be few and far between. Never say never, given it’d be a nice pick for teams to pick up given the Eagles and Bombers didn’t make finals in 2024 and neither would be popular picks to move up the ladder too far in 2025.
As for Allan vs. Lindsay, I haven’t done a draft board (ranking the prospects as I see them by talent), but I would have Allan over Lindsay. I think both are excellent prospects, but I love Allan’s leadership and his blend of speed and power in the midfield, along his capacity to float back as a defender as well.
On the topic of Bo Allan, Aden Walters asks: Where do you see Bo Allan going if he’s taken before the Eagles Pick 12 (or whatever it ends up being after academy/father-son selections)?
My previous phantom draft had him going to the Demons at #11 (they hold #9, but it fell to #11 after bids), and I think that’s certainly a strong fit for both sides there.
Darryl James Waugh is already excited about the Lions, asking: Who’s going to be the best pick in the draft, and why is it Levi Ashcroft?
Hmm, is it Ashcroft though? Just kidding, it is. Well, maybe.
He’s certainly the #1 prospect, which makes it very weird for me that neither Richmond or North will be bidding on him (according to reports). Richmond and Brisbane did do a pick swap, was there some secret agreement not to? The AFL doesn’t want it to happen, but I can’t see how you can police it, and I can’t fathom why a team that needs help everywhere like the Tigers wouldn’t bid and keep the Lions honest.
Craig Woodward asks: Who’s got pick 42, the guy will become The Answer?
The current correct answer is Brisbane, but this will change due to the bids which will swallow up the Lions pick as well as the F/S and Academy picks shoving picks backwards anyway. So your guess is as good as mine there. I’ll say Essendon, for the hell of it.
And nice tip of the hat to Douglas Adams, there, Craig.
Nicholas Coles takes us down Melbourne’s way with: Will Melbourne use one of its top 10 picks on a midfielder or seek to fill holes amongst the forward and backs?
I think Harry Armstrong is a logical pick at #5 given they’re really lacking key forward prospects, but the deep midfield pool should see someone fall to their spot at #9, and I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if they go for someone there, given they and Clayton Oliver have been teasing a divorce for the last two seasons. Who it might be, I don’t know, but it’s something to watch. As mentioned above, I did have the Demons picking Bo Allan in my previous draft.
John S Taylor goes down the route of draft philosophy, asking: Is it better to choose the best available player at each pick, pick the best local player available, or select to fill perceived needs?
I actually did a whole article on this, and in general I believe the earlier you pick the more inclined you should be to go the best player available. If you’re picking early, odds are you need help in a lot of places and fit shouldn’t be the overall concern.
I firmly believe a team afraid to go interstate for talent is a team that doesn’t back its culture. Strong cultures tend to keep players the vast majority of the time.
Now in saying that, you should be flexible and I believe you can deviate a bit. For example, a key position player is harder to find than a midfielder, so two players of comparable draft hype should have a team going for the key position player most of the time. Additionally, if you had two comparable players and one is homegrown, you might consider their location a tie breaking factor.
In addition, I think it’s fine to go for team needs or take a flyer on players in the second half of the draft as well.
So some exceptions do apply, but in general, I would 100% favour going for best player available.
Adam La Porta asks the real draft question on everyone’s mind here with: Will St Kilda draft a player named Jack?
It’s a bit rich for pick 8 or 9, but if the Saints trade down or if they just really want a key forward and Harry Armstrong is off the board, they have the ability to confirm the biggest Saints stereotype in recent memory with Jack Whitlock here…
Evan Immelman asks: Where would you rate this draft compared to the last two?
It’s certainly a lot deeper than 2022 or 2023, however, the one thing this draft lacks is a true top prospect in the vein of Harley Reid last year. It’s probably not quite the mould of the 2001 superdraft, but it’s definitely the best class since the 2018 class which is the best of the last decade, and it has the ability to surpass even that.
Ben Stivala, Jay Frampton and Aaron Smith are similarly intrigued by North, asking: What will North do with pick 2?/ Would Richmond and North swap pick #2?/ Do North trade back with either Adelaide or Richmond and if so what do you think gets the job done?
It’s not a secret North would like to accumulate some more draft picks as they don’t pick until #62 after #2 after going all out to bring some veterans to the club. It’s also not a secret the team is enamoured with Alix Tauru and he’s odds on to become a Roo.
Richmond and Adelaide are the teams most likely to make a trade if it happens and would dangle #6 and #4 respectively. North are asking too much right now, which is making both teams balk. That said, Adelaide looms as a very desirable trade for two reasons in that Tauru is unlikely to be a target of either Adelaide (should they move to #2) or the Blues at #3, and because the #6 pick of Richmond makes it slightly dicier (though still more likely than not) that they get their man.
I’m unsure what’s on the board for Richmond, but the Roos want a 2nd round pick in addition to #4 from the Crows, but the latter are only offering two 3rd round picks. I expect North to cave, however, and I think it would be totally fine – they could get two extra picks in 2024 or 2025 to move down two spots to pick the guy they were going to pick anyway.
But if Richmond offers #6 and maybe a 2nd rounder next year, they might be able to beat the Crows to the punch.
Jayden Finlay takes us back to the draft class in general with: Which players in the draft do you think have the ability to play Round 1 (or 0) and have an “immediate impact”?
Hard to know when they all get talked up, but are there many that seem ready to go vs needing time in the 2s to build up?
Quite a few to be honest, which adds to the excitement of this draft class. Any of the top midfield prospects in this draft has ‘start me now’ potential, especially if they went to Richmond. Later in the first round, players like Joe Berry, Tobie Travaglia, Xavier Lindsay, Taj Hotton, Jesse Dattoli and Cooper Hynes could make their debuts sooner rather than later.
Finally, Dale Ford takes us to GWS with this question: I figure we draft 4 this year and don’t try to trade up. Lots of list positions unless we have real ambitions in the DFA space.
Gonna be hard that low down, but a view on who would be good. I won’t hold you to it.
Four picks sounds about right for the Giants, although I haven’t heard too much mail on them, and they seem to be playing their cards close to the vest (or is it chest? I hate using that idiom). For what it’s worth, with their three first-round picks I had them taking Xavier Lindsay, Joe Berry and Christian Morae with those picks. I’d be very surprised however if Lindsay or Berry fell that far now.
Could GWS use one of their picks to take a flyer on someone who’s draft stock has taken a hit this year? Luke Trainor has a chance to make it that far, but could Taj Hotton or Christian Moraes fall into their laps due to injury and a down year respectively as a steal?
