Ah, the silly season. Where every fan vastly overrates their own club’s players, Trade Radio ads make your ears bleed (almost as much as the hosts do) and misinformation springs eternal.
It’s a time of annoyance and optimism for AFL tragics, and it’s almost upon us.
But wait, I hear you say, we haven’t even reached the finals yet! Surely we can enjoy the highest calibre of footy possible before we’re forced into weeks of speculation and, well, largely total bullshit about mostly half-baked players.
Well, I’m here to rain on your parade, and in my most hypocritical fashion I’m here to write about said silly season just a mere three sentences after throwing shade at it.
Richmond premiership star Shai Bolton unofficially/officially hinted he might be kind of, sort of, but maybe not, open to a trade this week.
He’s apparently let the club know he’s open to the idea of a trade, but not “demanding” one, which sounds suspiciously like my wife when she desperately wants something… my advice, Tigers: Make it happen, immediately.
Of course, footy contracts aren’t a marriage, and Richmond don’t have to worry about being forced into a long period of celibacy should they make the wrong decision.
Anyway, as it is with all trade scenarios, Bolton’s “unofficial” request immediately generated plenty of discussion about the livewire mid/forward’s worth at the trade table.
Logical Richmond fans want two first-round draft picks, illogical ones want much more. Of course, fans of the WA clubs he’d like to land at will tell you why he’s not worth that much, and round and round the conversation spins in a perpetual crap shoot.
Largely, the conversation around trading these high-end draft picks has two different trains of thought. From what I’ve seen in my years of following the discourse, you either:
- Absolutely detest trading first-round draft picks, believing it a cardinal sin of the highest order due to the risk attached, OR
- Believe clubs need to be ruthless in their pursuit of star players to make genuine runs at a flag
As a known fence-sitter, I believe the answer lies somewhere in the middle of these statements.
For clubs tossing up the idea of whether to trade their first round draft picks to bring in more ready-made players, it’s all about timing. Is your list genuinely ready to win now, or have you incorrectly evaluated the talent at your disposal?
We have examples of both.
The Eagles’ trade for Tim Kelly is often pointed to as Exhibit A of why you don’t trade first round draft picks in bunches, but the flip side of that is Geelong on-trading those picks to bring in Jeremy Cameron who, well, you know how good he is.
So what’s the point of all this? Well, it got me thinking about which clubs should, and should not, be wheeling and dealing their top draft capital in what looms as a monstrous AFL Trade Period.
So without further prolonging what is already a too-long intro, let me give you my takes on which clubs currently rumoured to be in the trade market should (and shouldn’t) be taking leaps of faith this summer.
Teams that SHOULD be dealing first round draft picks
Fremantle
We hit the Shai Bolton rumour at the top, so we may as well address his most likely destination first up.
The Dockers have spent the better part of the last 10 years drafting kids, they rank among the five youngest and inexperienced lists in the competition and still, they had glimpses this season where most of the AFL landscape considered them genuine premiership threats.
In fact, up until three weeks ago, they had serious claims on a top-2 position.
So their list is already choc-full of young talent. Caleb Serong and Hayden Young remain just 23 years old, Luke Jackson will join them there next month and the likes of Jye Amiss (21), Josh Treacy (22), Matt Johnson (21) and Jordan Clark (23) are all still in their early years.
Somehow, the Dockers have three first round draft picks, and absolutely no need to hold onto them. Should they be able to bring in a player like Bolton who could vastly improve their biggest area of need at small forward, you spend the picks without question.
Hawthorn
This was a tricky one for me, because despite the absolutely smoking hot run the Hawks currently find themselves on, I can’t help but feel like they’ll regress to the mean at some point.
Maybe I’m just a cynical old bastard, but I feel like this young team’s wave has to crash, and when it does maybe they’ll want their first round pick.
But then, much like Homer Simpson often does, I told my brain to shut up. That’s all speculation, and I’m here to deal in reality.
The reality of the Hawks’ situation is that their first round pick is currently slated at pick 12 (not exactly a boom pick), and their target is West Coast defender Tom Barrass.
I wouldn’t be offering two of those coveted first round picks if I was the Hawks, but like Fremantle, they’d be filling their biggest position of need with a proven star for the cost of a near-negligible draft choice.
Do it, Hawkies!
Melbourne
Now I feel like less people will agree with me here, but hear me out.
Yes, the Demons are faltering and appear on a downward trajectory, and usually that would mean you hold on to your top draft picks like they are Faberge eggs at some kind of Faberge egg convention (it’s late, my metaphors are running thin).
However, let’s deal with reality again.
The Demons’ reality is that they’ve made long-term commitments to star players to take a crack at a run of sustained success. For a multitude of reasons, that doesn’t appear to be going too well, but to pivot away from that strategy now may mean another decade in the doldrums for a club that fought so long to get out of there.
For all the rumours that surround them, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Max Gawn and Jack Viney are all signed up long term. That alone means you simply must continue having a crack at a flag each year they remain on your list, whether that’s realistic or not.
The Dees also, thanks in large part to a Luke Jackson trade, have made their share of first round draft selections over recent years, so you can feel safe banking on the likes of Jacob van Rooyen and Caleb Windsor to continue improving while you bring in more ready-made players.
Dan Houston is the main target rumoured for the Dees at this point, and if I’m them, I’m spending a first rounder to bring him in.
And if a gun forward presented, you’d throw more than one at him.
Teams that SHOULD NOT be dealing first round draft picks
Adelaide
I find the Crows intriguing on so many levels.
Touted to make finals by many (myself included) and now labelled the utter disappointments of the 2024 season. Did we all go a bit overboard on our expectations, or did they fail to deliver? Probably a bit of both.
Looking back, the Crows just don’t have the list to achieve what we were expecting. They have serious holes all over the ground, really.
Their key defensive posts are less than inspiring, they have an ageing midfield that, outside of Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine, doesn’t give them much, and we were robbed of seeing enough of Riley Thillthorpe this season to feel confident about their ability to replace Taylor Walker.
So, is this really a team that should be giving up a first round draft selection to bring in Jack Lukosius? Because yes, I believe that’s what it will take to get him out of the Gold Coast.
The answer is no. The Crows don’t have some great depth of quality young talent coming through, and they need to build that.
Don’t get me wrong, the likes of Thillthorpe, Daniel Curtin, Josh Rachele and Jake Soligo reads well, but they need more.
Lukosius hasn’t done enough to convince, keep the pick!
West Coast
Pretty obvious, this one. When you’re as bad as the Eagles have been for three years now, which is to say they are in full rebuild mode, you need all the picks you can get.
Still, the reality is most clubs do need to bring in outside talent during the trade period, which puts the Eagles in an interesting position.
Tigers premiership star and vice captain Liam Baker has been linked to the club, presenting a classic case of value residing with what the buying club is willing to pay.
If Baker nominates Fremantle, most of us wouldn’t bat an eyelid at them dropping another first round pick to bring him in. The Eagles are a different matter, however.
If the Eagles could pry pick 12 out of the Hawks for Barrass, the Tigers would be within their rights to ask for that same pick in exchange for Baker.
West Coast should avoid doing that at all costs. Baker is a great glue-guy, a real team player who will play a role reliably, but he’s not a star and that pick should be another Faberge egg at the egg convention for the Eagles.
Stay away, West Coast! Or at least, find a better deal.
St. Kilda
They’re not really linked to any targets, but we all know how much the Saints love tripping over themselves at the trade table.
Remember when they traded a top 10 pick, who went on to be Caleb Serong, for Brad Hill? Ha, good times. Well, not for the Saints fans…
Just keep it in your pants this year, Sainters, you need all the young talent you can get.
