Is the Minor Premiership a Poisoned Chalice?
It used to be that finishing at the top of the ladder in an AFL season was a great indication that a team would be a shoo-in for the flag, but is that still the case? Last year, Brisbane won the premiership from third on the ladder, finishing the home and away season a spot behind their Grand Final opponents in Geelong, while minor premiers Adelaide went out after losing back-to-back games.
In 2024, Sydney made it to the Grand Final after finishing the season as the minor premiers, but capitulated to the Brisbane Lions, who became only the second team to win the premiership from outside the top four.
In fact, you have to go to 2023 when Collingwood won the Premiership. Collingwood was actually the last of a three-season run where the Minor Premier was the same club that took home the flag. However, those were the only three times in the last decade when the team that finished on top of the ladder at the end of the home and away season went on to win the flag.
This suggests that a team may be better served by finishing further down the ladder, especially in the decade since the AFL introduced the pre-finals bye period.
Let’s take a look at the minor premier for the last decade and see how they finished the year, shall we?
2016 Minor Premiers – Sydney
It’s been almost ten years since the AFL saw the first-ever premiership from outside the top four since it first introduced the McIntyre final 8 system. That year, Sydney finished the season in first place, before losing the first Qualifying Final to their cross-town rivals, the Giants. Sydney, much like eventual premiers the Western Bulldogs, fought through the adversity, defeating Adelaide and Geelong on their way to the Grand Final.
In the Grand Final, the emotion of the occasion saw the Western Bulldogs run over the Swans by 22 points to win their first premiership in 62 years. This was the first of two times that Sydney finished on top of the ladder in the last decade, but more on that further down this article.
2017 Minor Premiers – Adelaide
In 2017, Adelaide finished on top of the ladder, a position that has been a real problem for the team. It’s almost like teams from Adelaide do not do well when they finish the season towards the top of the ladder. This was the second time that Adelaide finished in first place at the end of the home-and-away season, and also the second time that they failed to use that advantage to win the flag.
Adelaide made it through Greater Western Sydney in the first Qualifying final, a hurdle that tripped up the Swans the previous year, and also took out Geelong at Adelaide Oval to seal their date with destiny at the MCG. This was the disastrous Grand Final where the Crows employed Collective Mind’s pre-game Power Stance to intimidate Richmond before the bounce of the ball.
Needless to say, the Tigers trounced the Crows to the tune of 48 points to win their first grand final in 37 years.
2018 Minor Premiers – Richmond
After winning the Premiership, the Richmond looked almost certain to go back-to-back in 2018 after finishing the season two games clear of runners-up West Coast Eagles. After the pre-finals bye, Richmond made easy work of Hawthorn to book themselves another weekend off, before their preliminary final against Collingwood.
Unfortunately for the Tigers, the Preliminary final was where their hunt for their second successive flag ended, going down to Collingwood by 39 points. The loss to Collingwood ended Richmond’s 22-game winning streak.
Collingwood, after eliminating the Tigers, would end up losing in the Grand Final to West Coast.
2019 Minor Premiers – Geelong
Geelong finished the 2019 season with only percentage points keeping them ahead of second-place Brisbane Lions and third-place Richmond. It was Geelong’s first minor-premiership since 2008, when they finished four games clear at the top of the ladder.
Geelong would lose the First Qualifying final to Collingwood in a close and low-scoring contest, with a total of 16 goals scored between the two sides. Geelong then defeated the reigning premiers, West Coast, at the MCG in the Semi-finals, booking a showdown with Richmond in the Preliminary finals.
Ultimately, the Tigers would end Geelong’s season on their way to a second premiership in three years.
2020 Minor Premiers – Port Adelaide
In the Covid-shortened 2020 season, it was Port Adelaide that took out top spot with 56 points. The minor premiership was Port’s first since their breakthrough premiership season in 2004. In another close season, Port finished just ahead of Brisbane by percentage points alone.
In the final series, Port Adelaide defeated Geelong in the first Qualifying Final, setting up a Preliminary Final clash with reigning premiers Richmond. In another low-scoring affair, Richmond eliminated Port Adelaide by six points before winning back-to-back flags for the first time since the early 1970s.
2021 Minor Premiers – Melbourne
Winning their first Minor Premiership since 1964, the Demons managed to finish only 2 points clear of Port Adelaide at the end of the home-and-away season. Melbourne only lost four games in a season, still partially affected by the Covid-19 pandemic that loomed over the season for the second successive year.
Melbourne defeated Brisbane in the first Qualifying Final to give themselves a week’s break before dominating Geelong in the Preliminary Final by 83-points, the Demons’ greatest ever winning margin over Geelong. This set up a match-up with the Western Bulldogs in the Grand Final.
Like Western Bulldogs did in 2016, Melbourne finally ended their premiership drought. The Demons comprehensively defeated the Western Bulldogs by 74 points in their first Grand Final appearance in over 20 years. Melbourne also became the first Minor Premiers to win the Grand Final in eight years.
2022 Minor Premiers – Geelong
Geelong returned to the summit of the AFL in 2022, some 5 years after their last minor premiership. The first-place finish came after many dismissed Geelong as being “too old” to compete, with aging stars like Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield, and Isaac Smith.
Geelong defeated Collingwood and Brisbane in the Qualifying and Preliminary finals, respectively, setting up a Grand Final against Sydney. Geelong completely decimated the Swans in the decider to the tune of 81 points, the biggest win in a Grand Final since the Cats took apart Port Adelaide in 2007.
2023 Minor Premiers – Collingwood
Collingwood’s 2023 season is the most recent example of the Minor Premier going on to win the Premiership later in the same season. During the season, Craig McRae’s Collingwood would be excellent in tight games, winning five games by two goals or less.
The Pies would take this close game form into the finals, beating Melbourne, the Giants, and the Lions by a cumulative total of 12 points on their way to their record-tying sixteenth flag, squaring them up with Essendon and Carlton.
2024 Minor Premiers – Sydney
Sydney finished the 2024 season in top spot, returning 8 years after their previous minor premiership. In a tight season, only eight points separated the top four teams. Like in 2016, John Longmire again took Sydney from the top of the table at the end of the home and away season to the Grand Final, defeating the Giants and Port Adelaide on their way back to the most important game of the season.
However, the Swans were again foiled in the decider by a team that didn’t even finish in the top four. Unlike the previous occasion, where the Swans were beaten by a Bulldogs team that finished the season in sixth, the Swans capitulated at the final hurdle to Brisbane, who finished two points out of the top four in fifth position.
This second heartbreaking defeat in a Grand Final saw John Longmire retire, handing the keys over to his assistant coach, Dean Cox.
2025 Minor Premiers – Adelaide
At the start of this recap, we mentioned that Adelaide doesn’t perform well when they seem to come into the finals after finishing on top of the ladder. The Crows have finished first three times in their time in the AFL, including last year, where they finished in first place on 72 points with a healthy percentage of 139.3.
Coming into the final series with such promise, the Crows proceeded to make an absolute meal of their finals series. Not only did they lose their first home final since the 2017 Preliminary Final. The Crows then became the first minor premiership side in AFL history to go out in straight sets, losing to the Hawks by 34 points.
Conclusion
Now sitting almost halfway through season 2026, the two front-runners for the Minor Premiership are Fremantle and Sydney. While Sydney may be hoping to remain in second place, given their history of heartbreaking Grand Finals when they finish the season in first, Fremantle might also want the unfavourable recent history that comes with finishing the season in first place.
The Dockers have finished on top of the table once in the club’s history, back in 2015, where they were later eliminated by eventual Premiers Hawthorn in the Preliminary final, a single win away from setting up a Grand Final Western Derby against the West Coast Eagles.
Given the respective histories of the two teams currently occupying the top spots so far this season, and the performance of the minor premiers over the last decade, perhaps it wouldn’t be the worst idea if Sydney and Fremantle “let” other teams catch up a bit towards the end of the season.
