ROUND ELEVEN
After the Prophet decided he needed a week off from the AFL’s ineptitude, he came back to AFL-sanctioned salary cap breaches for the benefit of Scott Pendlebury and Collingwood. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
There are some ladder-shaping matches this weekend. A boundary umpire officiates game 450 at the MCG on Saturday. And there’s now a social media controversy for fan channels. You can’t script this week! Oh, and don’t forget the Chris Scott presser about Bailey Smith’s taped shoulders, likening the flamboyant Cat to Chris Judd …
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Eleven.
The Guarantee
The AFL will ensure that Collingwood wins. There is no way, after all of the buildup, hype, allowing Pendles to be an egomaniac with a gold number on his back (relax, Pies fans, this is called sarcasm) … There is no way the competition allows the Pies to lose this one. Not to mention broadcasters will shoehorn a Pendlebury mention into every other game this weekend.
On a less rage baiting of Collingwood fans note, Freo end the round a game clear on top of the ladder. It’s a bold call, but I can see the Cats – just – beating the Swans and the Doker doing the job against the Saints.
Bring on Wharfie Time! Also, the potential Josh Treacy v Cal Wilkie matchup is tantalising.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
On the flip side, Pies fans and the AFL hierarchy and some media personalities might spontaneously combust if the Eagles spoil Scott Pendlebury’s milestone game. Go Eagles!
For the Dockers, them losing at home to the Saints, when they could really solidify top 2, and maybe even top spot, would be a nightmare for the Purple Haze!
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
The Suns have clearly improved in recent seasons, and while Norf’s improved season met a bit of a sticky moment last week, this Saturday’s match at Superhero Stadium could be very interesting.
I would imagine that Clarko has read the riot act to his players after an abysmal showing in Adelaide last week, so I expect a response from the Roos. Will they beat the Suns? It’ll take a big performance, but if there’s a truly unlikely winner this weekend, it will be Kanga Kanga Kanga. Especially given that the Suns, while they appear like the Undertaker at Wrestlemania in Darwin, they can become a bit more Doink the Clown away from home, even as they improve. This will be an interesting watch.
I think the Suns win, but let’s get wild … I’ll tip North!
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
The Dreamtime at the ‘G contest ends up in a boring, uninspiring draw. In what should be a celebration of our Indigenous heritage in the greatest game on earth, this could be a game that no one wants to revisit the archives to talk about. For the first time in the history of the game, Richmond and Essendon play each other as the bottom two sides. Both are not good. Both are trying. Both would love to give their supporters something to cheer. Unfortunately, in a result befitting of where both clubs are currently at, this game will end in a draw.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Hokball has been in free fall in recent weeks. They have lost a little aura and mystique and need to get back onto the winners list. That needs to begin on Thursday Night as they host the Crom in Tasmania. It’s an interesting choice to stage an autumn night game in Tassie given the propensity for wet and windy conditions, but that might be of benefit to the Hawks.
If the conditions are a little off, it requires them to play a little more on instinct as opposed to getting everything perfect in terms of skill execution. As for the Crom, they want to stay in touch with the top six. They have had their own ups and downs and need the win as well.
There’s a lot on the line for both sides coming into this Thursday Night fixture.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
While I expect them to win, the last nine quarters that the Lions have played have been pretty ordinary. They’ve been disappointing and not the Lions we have come to expect. I do think that we will see some improvement from them. And they rightly enter this away game – and the travel may galvanise the team – against Kelli Underwood’s Orange Team as the favourites.
After capitulating on the road last week and being embarrassed by the Eagles, the Giants need to respond. Much will depend on their forward line setup. For all the promise Aaron Cadman has shown, he struggles as the main man up forward. If there are reinforcements, the Giants could cause a little upset. But, I expect them to continue to struggle in 2026, petering out as a trickle, moreso than an orange tsunami this year.
The Lions, while they have conceded some big scores, at least have decent set shot defense. The Giants defensive setup has struggled in recent weeks and so I think the Lions will get too many ‘good’ looks at goal.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Hard to go past Saturday twilight in the non-MCG game. You have the 3rd placed Cats hosting the top of the ladder Swans at Cat Park. Big names all ove the park and the prospect of some truly tantalising match ups.
The true advantage for the Swans is with Brodie Grundy up against Mitch Edwards in the ruck. It’ll be on the Cats defense to hold fast. And while there’s been some slander towards Charlie Curnow and his slow start to life as a Swan, he has a pretty decent record against the Cats. That will be a big watch.
And how the Cats go forward of the ball will also be very interesting. Can Shannon Neale stand up? Will Jez get off the chain? Can Shaun Mannagh do it again? And who will Oisin Mullin play on?
The Cats will need coach Chris Scott to produce another masterclass in coaching if they are to win this one.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
The Blues to push the Power from Port at Adelaide Oval. Now that they have tasted victory again, I expect the Blues to back it up with another competitive performance. Whether or not they win remains to be seen.
The Power will match the Blues around the ball, so that may remove one of the Blues primary weapons. When Port get on a roll, they score at ease. I think they have too many avenues to goal for the Blues, but don’t be surprised if the Blues make a genuine game of it.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The Demons. That might seem weird, given their recent form, but they go into this game against the wounded Dogs as favourites and, so, this is a must-win for Melbourne. These are the games that young sides can sometimes drop – the one’s they are supposed to win.
While the Dogs still have a lot of genuine talent on the field, Bont is clearly playing injured and the Dogs are a little broken. Can they regather some momentum with a win here, against the Dees, or will the Dees keep marching on?
Steven King will be hoping his side continue their resurgence and win at Marvel on Sunday.
The Don (player of the round)
Hard to go past Brodie Grundy. He will be the dominant ruck on the ground and his follow up work will test the Cats rucks. How the Cats go against Grundy and their attempts to curtail his influence will have a big say on the outcome of the game.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
I’m excited to see Cam Nairn get a run. I liked his profile going into draft night and now he makes his debut for Hokball on Thursday night.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Let’s go with Zak Butters to have 25+ disposals, 10+ clearances, and to hit the scoreboard again as he ensures his Power get the win … and makes Dogs and Cats fans very excited for what could be in season 2027.
The Winners (currently on 64; last week 7)
Hawthorn
The Draw (Essendon, if I absolutely must pick a team)
Fremantle
North Melbourne
Geelong
Collingwood (but I hope West Coast wins)
Port Adelaide
Brisbane Lions
Melbourne
Predictions were submitted with only the Thursday Night Football teams named. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.