The Prophet’s Perceptions
Saturday afternoon in the first week of Sir Doug Nicholls Round sees two sides who could have been forced together in the ‘90s, as Melbourne hosted the Hawks at the home of football.
The Hawks enter this game with some question marks after a draw and a narrow loss in the previous two weeks, and are no doubt ready to get back on the winners’ list.
The Dees, in the same time, had a narrow loss to the ladder-leading Swans and a solid, if unconvincing win against the Eagles. Both sides need a win and will throw everything at the game. Here’s how it all played out.
Tale of Two Halves
The first half saw the Hawks get the ball moving from stoppage – particularly out of the middle – but they couldn’t capitalise on this effectively. The Demons had their running game up and going and their ball movement was a highlight. But the Hawks stayed in the game through their early stoppage dominance and overall ruck dominance.
Lloyd Meek and Ned Reeves got their hands on the ball first at ruck contests. The Hawks were +17 in hit-outs and capitalised on their advantage of Max Heath in particular. But despite their advantage in these stoppage scenarios, the Hawks rucks were rendered practically impotent, having a combined eight disposals for the entire match. Max Gawn had 18 and had an impact.
At different points, he would drift behind the ball and intercept or force a contest; at others, he was an offensive threat down the line, ensuring the ball came to ground, allowing his half-forwards to get their hands on the ball.
So, not only did the Hawks fail to maximise their early stoppage advantages, they couldn’t curtail Gawn. And so, the longer the game went, the more the Dees evened up the clearances and started to run away with the game. A highly entertaining third quarter saw Melbourne lead by 20 points at the last break, and they got out by as much as 51 points at one point in the final quarter. This ability to overrun teams will set them in good store the longer the season goes, especially with them playing on instinct and seemingly having the freedom to do so.
Efficiency Up Forward
While they had more inside 50’s (+1 on Melbourne), the Hawks had nine fewer shots at goal. Early in the game, this inefficiency started for the Hawks. Calsher Dear had a few early looks on goal and was inaccurate, missing some set shots. While this didn’t hurt overall in the first half (Hawks down by a goal at half-time), missed opportunities impact momentum.
As the game progressed, we saw the Demons have greater success at scoring from their entries and having repeat entries. Their ability to keep the ball in their forward half helped them put significant pressure on the Hawks’ defence. It’s interesting, as the Hawks took considerably more marks inside 50, which often results in better efficiency in front of goal and more looks at goal. Unfortunately for the Hawks, they weren’t able to capitalise on these marks.
Different Styles
I haven’t seen a lot of Melbourne this year, and that is my loss. I have followed their results and am stoked for Steven King. The Hawks, well, as a Cats fan, I am well-versed in how they play.
Looking at the overall stats, the Hawks had more of the footy, more marks (including I50 as we’ve discussed), and ruck dominance. You’d perhaps be forgiven for thinking that they won this game. What Melbourne were prepared to do was absorb the Hawks’ pressure, force the Hawks into a kick-mark game, and then hit them on the counterattack. The Hawks like to score from stoppage and have great weapons, but the Demons came with a plan, and I feel like they executed it well.
The Hawks had moments, but their personnel issues and Melbourne’s intensity saw the Dees be better for longer. This presents a challenge for Sam Mitchell’s philosophy and coaching and it’ll be interesting to see how he gets his side ready for next week.
Other Things
Mark Howard is a pretty good commentator. However, he has a habit of referring to smothers as spoils and did it again in this one. Be better, Howie.
Shout out to Koltyn Tholstrup. He’s learning his craft and is more known for his offensive tricks, but today went head-to-head with the Wizard. Yes, the Wizard kicked three, but it was a fun back-and-forth matchup that Tholstrup ultimately had the last laugh in.
Josh Weddle was under pressure early, with three early goals from his direct opponent, Harrison Petty. However, a second-half effort where he provided some run and carry from D50, burning off Latrelle Pickett, kicking in board, and then receiving the ball back and kicking a long goal.
Daniel Turner is growing into a really proficient footballer. He is developing nicely, and we are seeing the benefit of him having a coach who gives him some consistency. I’m looking forward to seeing his continued development.
Finn Maginess has a decent track record of curtailing opposition stars. Lining up on Kozzy Pickett is no easy thing, but Maginess had a significant impact on the fluency and effectiveness of Kozzy’s game. He kicked two goals, sure, but only the 13 disposals in total. Maginess was one of the few winners on game day for the Hawks.
What Did We Learn?
Dees – that Melbourne are the real deal. A new coach, new standards, clearing out those who didn’t want to be there, and now the Dees are flying. They play fun footy. By fun footy, I mean fast footy. They are combative, they run, they use the ball aggressively, and they can score freely. This win lifts the Dees into the top 6, and above the Hawks on the ladder. Can they maintain the rage, so to speak? I think so! They have an edge about them that we haven’t seen for a while with the Dees, so strap in for the Steven King
Hokball – that without Tom Barrass and Jack Gunston, two of their key pillars, the Hawks are a bit out of sync. They lack stability in defense and are missing Gunston’s efficiency up forward. All sides would struggle missing key pillars, so I won’t be writing off the Hawks completely; however, they need to find some fluency and a mode of play that works without these two. Some of their young key forwards need to get more involved and be able to deliver when the time comes. Overall, some of their stars were down in their overall performance, so they will want to bounce back, and soon!
The first half was scrappy, interesting, and tight. While the Hawks were dominant around the ball early, the Dess were able to hold a minimal lead at half-time. But after the main break, Melbourne kicked 12 goals to 7 and ran away with the game. A statement win for the Dees, who are proving a handful thus far, especially at the MCG. The Hawks have five days to ponder what happened and right their current slide as they host the Crom Launceston on Thursday Night, while Melbourne has an eight-day break before travelling across town to Superhero Stadium to face the Dogs next Sunday.
Subscribe to the Mongrel Punt for all the analysis from those and all future matches.