The ceiling and the floor. We hear a lot about them, but mostly in regard to individual players.
“This guy’s ceiling is the Brownlow… that guy’s ceiling is the Coleman…”
But what about each team? What are their ceilings and their floors in 2026?
Well, time to have a look.
ADELAIDE
THE CEILING – THE FLAG
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
Injuries are starting to bite before the season commences, but the Crows have been there before. And they now have the depth to cover the losses, as a result. Their defence is a patchwork quilt that has been sewn together from a variety of parts, and unlike every patchwork quilt in the history of embroidery… this one bloody works! Thilthorpe could tear games apart, and Dawson emerged as the best skipper in the league last year. If they can rectify the pace issue around stoppage (Rankine/Rachele will help), good things will happen.
BRISBANE
THE CEILING – A THREE-PEAT
THE FLOOR – TOP EIGHT
You’d be a fool to forecast anything but another win for the Lions. They have incredible young talent, the best big defender of the last decade (and one of the best of all time) and a coach who gets the best out of his players. Forget the noise about Lachie Neale and the follow-up stories about players breaking up with their partners… far out, it’s gossipy crap. This team has runs on the board, and will be incredibly difficult to stop over the course of a whole season.
CARLTON
THE CEILING – TOP EIGHT
THE FLOOR – BOTTOM FOUR
Several people I’ve spoken to have pegged the Blues as a bottom-four certainty. I’m not so sure. Yes, Curnow and De Koning are losses. Silvagni, given his absence in 2025 is a lesser concern, but the bones of a good side are still there. Maybe that’s the issue? The bones have always been there – Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, McKay… the Blues will likely need all of them up and about, all season long, to make any noise. And when you’re reliant on too few to do the bulk of the work, that’s when problems start. Or continue, perhaps.
COLLINGWOOD
THE CEILING – TOP FOUR
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
I don’t think the Pies can win the flag. So much has to go right for them, and it is far too seldom that things do that. Moore is already doubtful for Round One, Bobby Hill leaves a hole no one else at the club can fill, and nine of their best 23 are 30+ years of age, with Jordan de Goey to join that cohort as the season commences. They will have moments – this team was the best in the competition for the first two-thirds of 2025 – but others have got better. The Pies have not.
ESSENDON
THE CEILING – WILDCARD ROUND
THE FLOOR – BOTTOM FOUR
Is the Wildcard Round the Bombers’ ticket to a finals win with an asterisk? There have been a few teams ripped apart by injury in recent years (West Coast, Adelaide, Carlton) but Essendon were probably the hardest hit in 2025. They were trotting out kids to fill the role of men, and it ended as you’d expect, with 13-straight losses. The whole team just feels unstable at the moment, and they need to have their best team stay on the park for a couple of months to give them a sense that the worst is over. Otherwise, things could go horribly wrong. Again.
FREMANTLE
THE CEILING – THE FLAG
THE FLOOR – TOP EIGHT
Give me any list in the league right now to work with, and I pick Freo. They have everything! Class mids, a well-drilled defence, and I adore their forward line… mainly because Josh Treacy is a star, but also because of the way their big men refuse to allow safe passage for the rebounding defenders. Is Hayden Young the key to going all the way? There are more than a few Docker fans who think so. A year older, and a year wiser, they should be ready, and there are very excuses not to be.
GEELONG
THE CEILING – THE FLAG
THE FLOOR – TOP EIGHT
Death, taxes, and Geelong in the race for the flag up to their eyeballs. Bank on it. The Grand Final was a disaster. Danger looked banged up, Jezza was cradling a broken arm, and the use of the sub was a complete mess. And yet, I don’t expect a post-Grand Final lull from the Cats at all. It’s not really who they are, is it? You know as well as I do – when things get tight late in the season, they’ll do what it takes to ensure they make finals, and once there… you never write this team off.
GWS
THE CEILING – PRELIM FINAL
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
Always around the mark, but the Giants seem to have lost a little bit of that depth that has made them such a consistent finals presence. Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer, and Toby Greene have a combined age of 93 years, so Aaron Cadman becomes vitally important as injuries start impacting the group. The defence is impeccable, as always, and it remains to be seen how two inside bulls, in Clayton Oliver and Tom Green, work together. Keep a close eye on this team – they’re never too far away from putting it all together.
GOLD COAST
THE CEILING – THE FLAG
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
Yes, they can win the flag. You only get so many chances to make the most of a burgeoning list, and right now, the Suns appear to have everything a team needs to make a serious challenge. A solid home ground advantage, stars in the midfield, a potentially powerful forward line, and a defence led by the most underrated key defender in the game, gives the Suns every chance to build into an historic year. They should, at the very least, finish top four.
HAWTHORN
THE CEILING – THE FLAG
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
I’m a natural pessimist when it comes to Hawthorn, and the latest off-season made that a little easier. Lost players, gained nobody, and then the player most would say is the key to their midfield got injured again. At their best, Hawthorn are brutally efficient. At their worst, they are a team reliant on a senior citizen to kick goals. It worries me.
MELBOURNE
THE CEILING – WILDCARD ROUND
THE FLOOR – BOTTOM TWO
This could go either way really easily. If the forward line works, it rectifies a pretty significant weakness the club has endured for years. If it fails, the defence no longer appears as powerful as it once was, and the midfield, with Jack Viney now out for months, doesn’t pack the same punch. The kids have to stand up, and will have every opportunity to do so. It’s a very tough ask.
NORTH MELBOURNE
THE CEILING – WILDCARD ROUND
THE FLOOR – BOTTOM FOUR
LDU can say whatever he likes, but talk is cheap, and North have not demonstrated enough to convince me the big leap forward occurs this season. I would love to be wrong – their supporters are long overdue for a taste of consistently competitive footy – but after finishing 16th in 2025, there is going to have to be a significant uptick from a host of players to propel them up the ladder.
PORT ADELAIDE
THE CEILING – FINALS
THE FLOOR – BOTTOM FOUR
New coach, President saying finals are the goal… no pressure, right? For me, the way the back six combine will be pivotal in the 2026 fortunes of the Power. If their three talls can get it together, and Todd Marshall adds a consistent marking option back there, then the midfield is capable of carrying this team into September. If things go awry, you have a star coming out of contract, a forward line very reliant on one player, and a club that could struggle to register enough wins to stay out of danger.
RICHMOND
THE CEILING – WILDCARD ROUND
THE FLOOR – BOTTOM FOUR
Are they going to continue to grow, or regress as the rebuild continues? That’s the million-dollar question as the Tigers enter 2026. For me, the issue is young legs getting tired as the season progresses. If the Tigers start fast, hanging around that 10th-11th position is in play, but I don’t expect them to come home with a rush this season. A year of growth would be a great outcome, and if that is complemented by a couple of extra wins, they’re on the right track.
ST KILDA
THE CEILING – PRELIM FINAL
THE FLOOR – MISSING THE FINALS
This is the team with the most fluctuation of all. The sudden influx of talent could propel them upwards, but if the team takes a while to gel, we may not see Ross Lyon’s grand plans come to fruition until 2027. I know, Saints fans… the wait is excruciating, but it’s not like you’re not used to it! I see ups and downs for St Kilda this year. The talent to push into finals is there, and I’d love to see them win one, but teams do take time to come together, and part of me thinks this may be the case at Moorabbin in 2026.
SYDNEY
THE CEILING – TOP FOUR
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
I do worry about the Sydney defence a bit – so much rests on the shoulders of Tom McCartin remaining healthy. If he does, and they get the expected return from their stars, they could bounce back into contention very quickly. That said, we saw what happens when injuries hit key players, and like so many other teams, they’ll need luck to find their way into the upper echelon of the ladder.
WEST COAST
THE CEILING – OUT OF THE BOTTOM FOUR
THE FLOOR – STONE, MOTHERLESS LAST
This year is simply part of the process for the Eagles. I have read some people saying ten wins is the ceiling. After one win in 2025, I reckon five or six would be a huge improvement. The flip side is that they are still very shallow when it comes to second-tier players, and a few injuries could see their entire structure fall apart. If that occurs, another spoon is on the horizon.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
THE CEILING – A FINALS WIN
THE FLOOR – WILDCARD ROUND
The Dogs are too good to be out of the running, but I cannot see them going further than one win in September. They’re fielding a similar team to 2025 where they should have made finals, but managed to fall short. They potentially have the best tall forward in the game and the best mid on the same team, but their defence needs to come together quickly to give them a legitimate shot.
So, quite a few teams *could* win the flag, right? A third of the listed teams, according to the Bozo writing this… which is me.
Yeah, of course they could. If everything goes well, there are a heap of team that have a high ceiling, but we should look at their floors for more context. The floor is where many ended up.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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