ROUND TWENTY-THREE!
The penultimate weekend of the Men’s comp is upon us. There are season and finals defining match-ups, and some, like Friday Night in Vic (Ess v Saints), that have no right being on prime time. And there are opportunities for non-finals teams to play spoiler for their opponents.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Twenty-Three.
The Guarantee
There was a discussion among the Mongrel writers this week as to who we think is the Premiership favourite at the moment, if not the Crows, or despite the Crows. I think it’s the Lions, despite some various inconsistencies.
So, I am staking my claim and reputation as the oracle by guaranteeing the Lions have a win for the ages, on the road, against the Purple Haze in Perth. The Doker have been really good, that said, I don’t trust them as much as I do the Lions; especially with the Lions on the road, they’ve been incredible when travelling this year.
Friday Night will be no different.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
A loss this weekend snowballs, and the Suns don’t win another game and miss finals after being so close for so long.
It won’t happen, but if they were to lose their final three games, starting with the Expansion Cup against the orange team this weekend, it would be catastrophic for the Suns and would be very difficult to recover from.
Similarly, for the Giants, a loss in this one will leave them vulnerable to being bypassed by the Dogs, thanks largely to the Dogs’ much superior percentage. They need to win to, ultimately, keep their season alive.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
As a Cats fan, I’m very nervous about Sunday. The Swans have been playing some good footy late in the season. Sure, this weekend, their season is officially over in terms of finals, and Brodie Grundy is missing, but their leg speed and spread from their midfield will stretch the Cats, who haven’t won at the SCG (against the Swans) since 2019.
I’m still not 100% sure on who I tip, but the Swans are definitely in this game. The Cats will likely secure top two if they win this game, so there’s a home final to play for.
It should be a cracking game and a decent tune-up before finals for the Cats, should they turn up and play four quarters.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
I don’t know why this has to be a bold call, as I would have them favourites, but the bold call is that the Tigers beat Norf in Tassie. The Tigers, from my perspective, have been more believable than North and have been more consistent. There are more positive signs, and while all these teams can play for now is pride and a glimpse to the future, I’mm low-key interested to see how this one plays out.
Essential Result (Must Win)
You can make an argument that this is a must-win for both Adelaide and Collingwood. The Crows sit pretty on top of the ladder, a game clear of next and with the best percentage. However, they have lost their last 10 against the Pies, and the last five have all been close and riddled with controversy. If the Crows are going to go deep in September, this is a demon that they must slay on Saturday Night.
Alternatively, for the Pies, they’ve lost four of their last five matches (all four losses being against finals teams) and have looked a shell of their normal selves. However, they love the Adelaide Oval, having won their last 10 games at the venue.
Both teams have made some forced nd unforced changes to their lineups. A loss for the Crows won’t cost them top four, but could cost them a home final. A loss to the Pies will likely have them miss the top four and be in a battle for a home final.
This shapes as one of the key finals shaping matches over the next two weeks and we will all be seated on Saturday Night for this one.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
The AFLW. It was great that they had standalone Thursday Night footy, but the timing of the season still creates challenges when placed alongside the men’s season. It feels like there hasn’t been a lot of promotion for the women’s game, which sucks, because we’ve seen some great improvement in recent seasons. Here’s hoping the AFL as an organisation does its part to set the AFLW up for success.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
In a morbid kind of way, in terms of how big a score the Dogs can kick, the final game of the round, at Marvel, is a sadistic must-watch. The Dogs are big scorers and flat track bullies – in this case, that’s a compliment. They could kick a huge score against the Eagles, who are competitive at home, but fade when travelling.
This potential percentage boost, even with their already huge percentage, will be a great asset for the Dogs if certain teams happen to drop a game.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
While I don’t expect them to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Demons push the Hawks. After last week’s win over the Pies, Hokball is flying. They need to ensure they don’t get complacent against a lower side and really consolidate their place in the top eight.
Melbourne, on the other hand, have players that are potentially playing for their futures – whether it is maintaining a spot on the Melbourne list or to try and get another opportunity elsewhere.
This one is relatively easy to predict, but should be a good watch nonetheless.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Connor Rozee. After having to publicly refute some pretty despicable made-up rumours about his personal life, I hope he can respond on the field. And maybe even be permitted by the AFL to offer a bird to whoever is spreading these.
Just because these players are good at sport doesn’t give keyboard warriors, journo’s, whoever the right to pry or follow them around. This is part of the reason I gave up studying journalism back in the day: the lack of ethics.
Anyway, here’s to Rozee and the Power showing up and showing out against Carlton.
The Don (player of the round)
Part of me thinks I should put Darcy Moore, as the emphasis on his deficiencies in recent weeks will surely lead to him improving in a big game? But, I’m more inclined to back in Riley Thilthorpe to go LARGE against the Pies, and win the game for his team. Back in Filthy for 6+ goals.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
I’ve really liked what Hugh Boxshall has shown us this year. Against the Bombers on Friday Night, he could really stake his claim as an AFL footballer. His run and carry will bother the Bombers.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
He’s done it once already this year, but if Geelong are gonna win the midfield battle, then Bazlenka needs a good game. I am hoping he pulls of a 30-20-10 (30 disposals, 20 contested possessions, and 10 clearances) or more game.
The Winners (currently on 127; last week 7)
St Kilda
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Adelaide
Richmond
Geelong
Western Bulldogs
These predictions were made before Sunday teams were finalised. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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