Tasmania’s imminent entry into the competition doesn’t exactly leave the AFL in a quandary on what to do next. Nobody wants an odd number of teams in the competition, and having a 20th AFL team ready to go would give the AFL massive leverage when it comes to the negotiations of the television rights once the current deal ends at the end of 2031.
And I know what you’ll say reading this. “Tasmania hasn’t even entered the league yet, why are we talking about yet another team right now?”
Yes, true, but believe me the prospective new locations aren’t resting on their laurels, so it bears speaking about.
Now the locations are starting to creep into the race. Enter Darwin and Western Australia into the ring. It’s a real head vs heart matchup for the race to be the 20th team.
There are going to be other locales named, but they don’t merit further consideration right now. Canberra won’t be considered because GWS have their secondary base there, there’s no real support in South Australia especially with Norwood denying they want to enter the AFL, and another team on the other side of the Barassi line it looks like Newcastle or Cairns doesn’t seem to be a realistic prospect.
What does look to be a realistic prospect however is Darwin or a third WA team, based most likely in Bunbury or Joondalup. All three locations have shown massive enthusiasm in hosting a full-time AFL team with Darwin and Bunbury already hosting AFL games, and Joondalup recently beginning the process of upgrading their facilities.
Darwin is the sentimental favourite for most fans. With Tasmania entering the league, the Northern Territory will be the only location in the AFL landscape without a team other than Canberra (who won’t be considered for the aforementioned reason) and the AFL would love to raise Indigenous representation in the AFL. In addition, the desire for a team is truly evident in the Top End. It isn’t the most populous area, but you can’t deny the passion for football in the top end. Any team would surely be passionately supported.
The issue with the emotional favourite however is that given it will be a small market, it will need some serious cash flow from the AFL to remain solvent. Like $30 million a year type of money. It’s a lot, is the point here.
The strongest case from a logical standpoint may be Western Australia. The strongest thing standing in the way was the all-powerful Western Australia Football Commission, who previously stated pointblank they would not consider a third team in the AFL from the state. But they seemed to soften their stance this week when WAFC CEO Michael Roberts said:
“It’s positive that a third WA team is being spoken about ahead of potential options interstate. We need to make sure the clubs here in WA aren’t like some of the clubs in Victoria who are putting their hands out or struggling for members. We need to understand what is viable, and I think there’s still a lot of work to do to see if a third club would be supported here in WA. Any future arrangement would also require a review in how community football would be funded, given the two local AFL clubs assist in funding local community football. We look forward to future discussions with the AFL and state government.”
So yes, the door seems open to say the least.
From a financial standpoint, WA is the smart choice. It can financially support a third team according to a feasibility study, and WA has an independent streak that makes them want to pay their own way. The amount of money the AFL has to foot would be much less, and they can play at Optus stadium and base themselves in Bunbury or Joondalup who both are desperate to play host to an AFL team.
Obviously, it isn’t as romantic for the average AFL fan to see a third team in Western Australia, but the ability to put a financially viable team in just in time for the new round of TV right talks would be understandably tempting for the AFL.
The choice isn’t going to be made overnight and WA, the NT, and any other locations are going to get their chance to make their final pitch, which means the landscape could change. Right now, however, that’s the lay of the land.
The smart, financial choice vs. the sentimental favourite. The gloves are off, and the bell is going to ding soon, and more likely than not it’ll be one of those locations that gets the nod.