ROUND EIGHTEEN!
We’ve just come from a round of top nine vs. bottom nine, and we now see many of the top eight facing challenges from within their own ranks. It *crosses fingers* hopefully is a good weekend of games, even if Thursday Night prime time shapes up as a snoozefest … sorry, Blues fans.
Be forewarned: while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your poor betting decisions and the use of my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Eighteen.
The Guarantee
The umpires continue to get in the way of players and there continues to be contact. This whole adjudication of only players needing to be aware is dumb. Umpires need to be as aware of their surroundings as the players are. I don’t want to see Matt Rowell miss a final because an umpire runs into him.
Charlie Curnow hasn’t kicked a goal in nearly a month – symptomatic of the beleaguered and struggling Blues. I guarantee he FINALLY breaks this cycle on Thursday Night, kicking at least three goals.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
The Suns fail their test. With Collingwood still missing some players, and the Suns humming along, this is a game that they should win. They are at home, prime time, and the Pies need to remember what travel looks like … I wonder if Pendles will get on the plane?
In all seriousness, this is a huge test for the Suns, and there is absolutely no reason why they cannot and should not win this game. The ball is in their court. If they are going to be taken seriously, and want us to become true believers, then they win this. A loss confines them to still being largely irrelevant.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
I could put the Suns in here, but based solely on betting odds currently, the Crom to beat the Dogs under the roof over inside Superhero Stadium. These are arguably the two most fun teams to watch. They can score heavily, take big marks, and don’t shirk the contest. It’s a shame it is confined to early Saturday, rather than Thursday Night, but expect this one to be a shoot out and the Crows to firmly establish their top 4 and Premiership credentials with a win.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
West Coast travel across the Nullabor, grab the four points, and Ken decides he’s had Kenough. Do I really think this happens? Well, no. But I have liked the improvement we have been seeing from the Eagles and what they are building. The more games they get into some of their talented youngsters, and the continued cohesion they are developing with new recruits and leaders like Liam Baker standing up.
The Power continues to show glimpses of what they can do, but aren’t consistent enough, and now, they are losing players to injury fairly readily as well.
Essential Result (Must Win)
GWS v Geelong. It’s a must win for both teams. For the Giants, they want to solidify themselves in the 8, while the Cats are seeking to further strengthen their top four claim. Both teams have had great wins are some not so great losses. Many would have had the Giants as a legitimate Premiership threat – they are when they are up and going.
Geelong will need to curtail the orange tsunami while the Giants will need to try to stop Jeremy Cameron and the Cats forward, with a likely depleted defensive setup.
It shapes as a cracking game, and that’s added to with the stakes at play.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Fremantle. They are just outside the 8 and ready to pounce, and host Hokball at home. You could argue that both teams need to win and have a lot at stake. A loss for the Hawks, though, still keeps them in touch. A loss for Freo, and they fall further away from the top 8. If they want to play finals, then it starts with a win for the Dockers.
The Hawks will challenge them, and it won’t be easy for the Dockers, but they need a good result.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Not because I think it’ll be a pretty game to watch, but Thursday Night Football has a lot of stories. The Blues are imploding, their supporters are frustrated, Vossy has copped abusive messages, and Josh Dunkley says that the Lions need to be wary … it’s at the Dome, and provides many storylines to watch. Will TDK stink it up again? Will other Blues be half-hearted hoping to be traded? Or will they FINALLY respond? Tune in to find out.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
I like the prospects of North Melbourne this weekend. I don’t trust them enough to pick them, and the players that Melbourne still have on-field are very good, but if the Dees are inaccurate or fail to be at their best, North are a sneaky chance. They have shown growth, but lack the ability to really close out games, given how infrequent wins and success have been for them. Don’t sleep on North, even if you don’t trust them.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Dean Cox and the Bloods. The Saints play Marvel really well and they have their moments where they really turn it on. The Swans have been building and pose a threat from outside the 8. They may be coming from too far back to play finals, but they can do some damage along the way. Because of that, I think that they account for the Saints – mainly through the middle of the ground. This is the sort of game where Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner can really flex their muscle and dominate.
The Don (player of the round)
Saturday Night has Zach Merrett written all over it. He has been great this year, even if he hasn’t had as much influence recently, but he can lead his side to a comfortable win against the Tigers. Back him in for 30+ disposals and 2+ goals.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
This is an easy one, but George Stevens at the Cats. Stephen Wells and his team have done it again. Plucking George at pick 58 in the 2023 draft, he debuted last week, and looked like a 100-game player. His ability to hold space and dispose of the ball setup players like Max Holmes to have maximum impact. Yes, I know it was against the Tigers, but he was playing against Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, who are no mugs, but I’m keen to see George ply his trade against a dominant Giants midfield.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Izak Rankine to run rampant against the Dogs. Many of the Dogs half-backs are all mostly offensive weapons. Rankine can capitalise this and have a significant impact. Back him in for five goals and a Crows win.
The Winners (currently on 91; last week 9)
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Greater Western Sydney
Essendon
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Sydney
Port Adelaide
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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