1 – BRISBANE SEEM TO STRUGGLE WHEN PLAYING AGAINST LESS FANCIED OPPONENTS
A quick analysis of Brisbane’s first half of season 2025 is putting out some pretty bizarre data. Most teams sitting in a top two spot on the ladder would often be a tough side to beat for the other top teams, while you would expect the struggling teams to be decimated more often than not. However, as we saw earlier this month, the then top of the ladder Lions could only manage a draw to the 17th placed Kangaroos followed by a shock loss at home against the 15th placed Demons. They then made light work of the Hawks in Melbourne just a week later, and in bizarre fashion once again, they had trouble shaking off the Bombers at home, eventually kicking the final three goals of the match to win by 19 points.
When I crunched the numbers, there was virtually no disparity between Brisbane’s record this season against those teams up in the eight compared to those outside. Against the better teams, Brisbane is 4-1 with a percentage of 113.4%. Against the rest of the competition they 4-1-1 at 117.4%. Their record against the lower sides is actually marginally worse than it is against the power teams when you factor in the drawn game. To illustrate the point a little better, if you compare that to the Magpies, they have a record of 5-2 versus teams in the eight with a percentage of 114.8% while they have a 5-0 record against the lower teams with 172.6%. Those numbers seem to line up better with the ladder position.
This week’s game against the Bombers saw a very spirited effort by the visiting side. Even though the Lions held sway for most of the night after jumping the Bombers early, Essendon worked their way back into the contest and amazingly took the lead during the final term only to see a professional Brisbane team wrestle back control to win by that three goal margin that seems to be roughly where they end up in a lot of games. They did it against the Eagles in Round Two. They led the Tigers comfortably before Richmond scored a flurry of late goals with the end result being a modest 28 point victory. We all know about their draw with North and their four-point win over Sydney way back in Round One. Is this a concern? Well, it can be when percentages play a role in determining ladder positions, but the draw all but makes that irrelevant, but I would still be concerned with how the Lions turn up for some games. Not being switched on from the get-go will eventually catch up with them.
Kai Lohmann missed a lot of football this year and we all know what a great talent he is. It was good to see him having an impact and kicking three majors. McCluggage was superb with 41 touches and possibly benefits from the opposition focus on Neale who was held to 26. Will Ashcroft continued his great form with another 30 disposal game. The Lions bank the win and move on to meet up with the Crows over in Adelaide in what is looming as a match of the round. Adelaide are looking ominous after their demolition job on Sydney, but will it be another case of the Lions lifting their intensity against one of the top teams again? Time will tell, but there is definitely a different approach to games depending on their opponents that I’ve noticed this year in Brisbane’s games.
I kind of feel for Essendon. As a Carlton supporter, it pains me to admit that, but I can see they are trying so hard. In so many games they’ve given their all, and they just can’t seem to get over the line against teams that are in that top bracket. When they hit the front in the last quarter, it took everything they had. The problem was that there was a lot of time left and the Bombers were spent. Caddy, Wright and Martin booted two each for the Bombers including a goal from Caddy that might contend for goal of the year. Calwell was prolific with 30 touches and a goal while Martin had 29 and Merrett 28. The Bombers face arch-rivals Carlton next round and will fancy their chances against the out-of-form Blues. That game will reveal a lot about where both clubs are at.
2 – HAWTHORN’S PREMIERSHIP CREDENTIALS ARE IN TATTERS
So many thought after last year’s effort that the Hawks might be the team to beat in 2025, and for a while they looked on the money. The cracks appeared against Port Adelaide, followed by a spirited loss to the Cats, but the reality is that, after winning the opening four games of the season, they’ve now managed just three victories from the last eight games, all against teams well outside the eight in West Coast, Richmond and Melbourne. After Round 9, they were third on the premiership table with seven wins. Things still seemed on track at that point, but wiser heads had noted that their wins were all against teams no higher than 8th on the ladder. Their last three outings have all been against teams that will likely play finals, and it’s concerning that in the last fortnight in particular, they have seemed well below the level of their opponents in Brisbane and Collingwood. The Hawks need to take a scalp at some point if they are a genuine threat this year, and until they do, it might be wise for Hawks fans not to cancel their September vacations just yet.
Collingwood enjoyed the return of some big name players and were unstoppable on Friday night. None more so than Jamie Elliott who is enjoying what is probably his best ever month for his AFL career. He’s booted 18 goals in May alone to put himself in second place in the race for the Coleman on 33 goals for the year. It’s a remarkable effort at the best of times, but especially so at 32 years of age. His five goals on Friday night kept his side in a winning position after half time, while the Daicos boys did their thing with Josh (24) and Nick (32) topping the possession count. And speaking of players above 30, Steele Sidebottom had yet another cracking performance with two goals from 27 disposals. The Pies season just seems to get better by the week, and I expect them to be too good for Melbourne on the King’s Birthday Big Freeze celebration.
Hawthorn do get an opportunity to take a scalp as they face the Bulldogs. A win in that game will steady the ship somewhat, whereas a fourth loss in a row will be cause for alarm. The game started well with Ginnivan hitting the scoreboard early against his old club, but the joy that his three goals brought was short-lived as the Pies booted the last three goals of the second term to go into the break with a handy four goal buffer. The Hawks couldn’t find a way to make inroads to the deficit, and by the end were on the receiving end of a 51 point crushing defeat. Jack Ginnivan was clearly out to send a message to the club that discarded him with 31 touches to go with his three majors, but aside from his heroics, only four other Hawthorn players were able to get 20+ touches. With their season on the line, the upcoming clash with the Bulldogs certainly will be season-defining for both clubs.
3 – FREMANTLE CAN WIN ON THE ROAD, JUST NOT IN VICTORIA
After Fremantle’s embarrassing loss to the Saints in Round Eight, I had come to the conclusion that the Dockers were no good on the road. They’ve since given me plenty of reasons to reconsider after wins against the Giants in Sydney, followed by this week’s strong victory on the Gold Coast. They’ve lost all three games in Victoria, two of which were by considerable margins, so perhaps they just can’t win in that state. Fortunately for the Dockers, they won’t need to enter Victoria again until Rounds 19 & 24. This may enable them to play finals, and I’m guessing they’d want a home final if possible. All jokes aside, three weeks ago, things looked very gloomy for the Dockers. There were big expectations coming into the year with a lot of pressure on the coach. This last three weeks has put them right back in the mix and one suspects they might feature in September action. They’ll go into the bye next week feeling somewhat better than they were feeling just a few weeks back, and they get to play a North Melbourne home game in Perth would you believe?
The Suns find themselves in a slightly precarious position at this point. The football world is anticipating a poor second half of the season as has been the case in past years when the Suns were up and about. A loss at home is always going to hurt. The captain did his absolute best amassing 39 disposals but it wasn’t enough to get his team across the line. Sam Flanders booted three goals and is enjoying his new role up forward. Ben King was kept quiet with just one goal. The Suns came close to snatching an unlikely win, drawing to within five points before Jye Amiss kicked the sealer in the 29th minute. Looking ahead, the Suns take on the Cats at GMHBA next round, and that’s hardly the sort of game you need after a loss.
Fremantle will go into their break next week full of confidence and also with some sense of relief. They’ve taken up the challenge with wins on the road against teams that are vying for a finals spot. It seems difficult to pinpoint where this turnaround has come from, suffice to say it was absolutely necessary. Brayshaw and Serong both got plenty of the ball, but they’ve been doing that all year. Luke Jackson was busy with 27 touches, and if the rumours are true regarding a possible move back to Demon-land, the club may need to do some clever negotiating to keep him wearing purple. Shai Bolton seems to be enjoying his footy after a slow start to the year. He booted three goals along with Patrick Voss. All in all, things are on the up and up with the Dockers, and it’s not something I would’ve expected to be saying after that St Kilda game.
4 – GIANTS CAME BACK STRONG, BUT WHERE ARE THEY REALLY?
It’s extremely hard to get a read on the season the Giants are having. It seemed to start well, but there seems to be a battle for them to find consistency week-in, week-out. They strung three losses together, culminating in a loss to the struggling Swans at the SCG in Round Eight. At that point, things looked grim, particularly when their following game was against Geelong away from home. Despite their impressive record at that ground, they went into that game as clear outsiders, and somehow found a way to keep their run of victories in Geelong intact. They went into the following week’s game as raging hot favourites against the Dockers, and they let that one slip. Carlton was their next opponent, and the bookmakers favoured the Blues as it was at Marvel and the form of the Giants was mediocre the week before. They won that, and nobody expected them to be troubled at all by the Tigers, and although they had a last gasp win after trailing for over 100 minutes, it was concerning that they were in that position. They are somehow 7-5 at this stage, but trying to predict their results is beyond any holder of a crystal ball.
Lachie Ash is one player at GWS who is finding consistency. He was very good again with a game-high 36 touches while Toby Greene followed up his stellar performance against Carlton with another 30 possession game. Callum Brown topped the goal scoring with three majors while Cadman and Riccardi booted two apiece. Richmond’s defence kept Hogan goalless and it might’ve resulted in an unlikely win had the young Tigers kept their nerve. The Giants head to Canberra next round to take on Port Adelaide who are having their own share of problems. You would expect the Giants to prevail in that one, but as I said earlier, you just don’t know what you’re going to get when GWS run out onto a football field.
Richmond could so easily have been knocking on the door of the eight if they were able to get over the line in a couple of close ones. Regardless, the Tigers have already exceeded expectations for this year, and it’s a genuine credit to them that they are competitive as often as they have been. After a long lay-off, Dion Prestia came back into the team and had an immediate impact with 31 touches and a goal. Green, Lynch and Taranto kicked two goals each. They were impressive for three quarters, and it’s a huge shame they were unable to finish the deal. I somehow get the feeling that the rebuild that they’re undergoing may not be as long as some thought. And who knows? Sydney next week at the MCG might be winnable…
5 – SYDNEY’S SEASON JUST REACHED A NEW LOW
You’d have to go back a long way to see a Sydney Swans team go down by 90 points at the SCG. It almost looked as though they had turned the corner after beating the Giants and Carlton just two short weeks ago, but since then they were smashed by Melbourne on the road, and this week the Crows put a full stop on their season once and for all. Adelaide were dynamite, so let’s not take anything away from what the Crows brought to Sydney, but there is clearly something amiss at this football club. After dominating for much of last year, they’ve now become a rank outsider in most matches. None of this augurs well for the coaching credentials of Dean Cox. Even he must’ve thought he was inheriting a prize bull of a team, but instead it has become more like a rebuild prospect as some of their stars are heading towards their twilight a little faster than anticipated. Whatever the case, their form is baffling.
Adelaide are not showing any signs of dropping off at this stage. They have the highest percentage in the league and have a fairly tidy 8-4 record. They average over a hundred points per game due to the plethora of goalkickers playing for that team. In this game alone they had 14 individual goal scorers with Rachele and Keays topping the list with three each. They were certainly aided by their accuracy around goal with a return of 21.5, but that can also be attributed to what was a lack of pressure coming from their opposition. Top possession winners for the Crows were Neal-Bullen with 25, Worrell with 24 and Keane with 23. The workload seems very well spread among the playing group, and they’re definitely building towards something. Friday night’s clash against the Brisbane Lions will be a huge night for the club. If they can beat the Lions, the Crows would really be inching closer to a Top Four finish, but we all know that Brisbane tends to rise to the occasion against the better teams.
In what was a dirty night for the Sydney Football Club, Justin McInerney had a game-high 27 disposals while Grundy and Heeney battled hard for 23 each. Hayden McLean was the only multiple goal scorer finishing with two. It was a sorry night and right now the only way is up for the Swans. Next week sees Sydney face off against the Richmond Football Club. What would’ve been considered a likely win a couple of weeks ago is anything but now. Richmond have shown enough to suggest they are a definite chance against the Swans next week, especially when you consider they beat them at the MCG last year with one of their two wins.
6 – THE DEMONS PLAYERS FORGOT WHERE THE GOALS ARE
On the surface, you could look at a game like this where Melbourne had 57 forward 50 entries to 40 by the Saints, plus the 28 shots on goal to just 21, and think it was a simple case of Melbourne’s terrible conversion rate that cost them the game. After half time, the hapless Dees only managed 1.12 which was farcical at best considering the simple shots they butchered. But a more damning statistic was the possession count where Melbourne had 91 fewer than the Saints. As wasteful as the Demons were, the right team won the game. St Kilda moved the ball with far greater efficiency and looked way more polished than their opponents.
Dan Butler was one beneficiary of that quick ball movement. He finished with four majors while sixth-gamer Isaac Keeler showed promise with a return of three goals. Callum Wilkie had a huge impact on reducing the effectiveness of Melbourne’s forays into their forward zone by taking an impressive 15 marks to go with 31 touches and countless intercepts. Wanganeen-Milera had 29 touches while Windhager had 28. In fact, nine St Kilda players had 20 or more touches while Melbourne could only manage four. The Saints will enjoy their break a lot more after this win and will come back to face the Bulldogs in Round 14 who were far too good for them earlier this year. It’ll be hard to see the Saints bridging that gap, but I guess not many believed they would beat Melbourne.
Melbourne will be ruing all those missed opportunities no doubt, but the reality is that they showed up not quite fully switched on, giving St Kilda a nice start before working their way back, and then spraying a ridiculous number of kicks towards goal. Petracca was Melbourne’s only multiple goal scorer with two. He also shared top possession honours with Max Gawn with 22 apiece while Steven May had 21. Looking ahead, it’s a huge King’s Birthday clash against Collingwood that they’ll need to get over to be any sort of chance to play finals, and they’ll certainly need to be switched on both from the start and in front of goal. Even if they manage to do all that, it still might not be enough to defeat the in-form Magpies.
7 – GEELONG FIND ANOTHER GEAR TO SHAKE OFF THE EAGLES
The Eagles certainly tested Geelong for three quarters, and the upset looked on when the Eagles kicked the first goal in the final term to draw to within a kick from the visitors, but like good sides do, the Cats raised their intensity and ended up running out comfortable 43 point winners with a seven goal to two quarter which included four goals to Jeremy Cameron. Jezza is a genuine matchwinner, and he’s now five goals ahead of Jamie Elliott atop the Coleman table. He’s one of Geelong’s greatest assets right now, as is prize recruit Bailey Smith who stunned the locals with 38 touches in a standout performance. Miers had a solid day with two majors from 26 touches. Stengle also kicked two goals along with Ollie Henry.
The Cats have seemed vulnerable at times dropping a few games they were expected to win, but despite all that they are 8-4 and looking good to finish high up on the ladder. The upcoming clash against the Suns at home will be another test for them, but at home it’s hard to see them let that game slip away.
So the Eagles are seemingly not quite the basket case they have been for a few years, but the fact remains that they have just the one win against their name and are in real danger of finishing last again. Oscar Allen was impressive kicking four goals. Liam Baker is enjoying his midfield role with another solid 28 possession game. Cole, Duggan and Hewett were also busy while Harley Reid showed a moment or two of brilliance. The clubs are circling for the youngster, and it seems less and less likely by the day that he’ll remain in Perth. Meanwhile, the Eagles will want to have a better second half of the year. They take on the Kangaroos in Bunbury next week. I sincerely hope that North Melbourne do well out of selling a home game, because handing the Eagles a home state game could prove the difference between winning and losing. The Eagles don’t want another spoon.
8 – I THINK THERE’S A FEW TEAMS WE CAN WRITE OFF FOR THE YEAR NOW
It’s fairly safe to say that the Eagles, North Melbourne and Richmond will not make the eight this year. Port Adelaide look shot as well judging by the heavy defeats they’ve endured. The Swans are hard to understand, but on what they’ve served up this past fortnight, they will almost certainly miss out on a finals appearance. As much as it hurts me to say, I think Carlton’s season is cooked as well. This isn’t 2023, and this year’s version of the Blues looks likely to maintain their mediocrity unless they can somehow tidy up their kicking.
Next in line you have the Saints and the Demons. Before this week’s game I would’ve said that Melbourne are a genuine chance of making the eight, but with both of them sitting on five wins with rather poor percentages, they’ll find that a lot will need to go right for them to have any sort of chance. Then you have the Bombers who’ve given it their all so far this year. They’ve been able to bank some wins over the journey, but the better sides have exposed just how far off the Bombers are at this stage. I think finals might be beyond them, but if they were to play finals, it would be a fine effort indeed.
That just leaves nine teams vying for a position in the top eight. One will have to miss out, at this early stage, I’ll nominate the Hawks as the unlucky party. What will change my mind would be a win against the Bulldogs. A win there gets their season going again while possibly then making life difficult for the Bulldogs. That game will tell us all some story all right.
