It’s the middle of the AFL season, and in 2025, you know what that means. It’s time to forget about the actual football being played and focus on which players might be moving to new clubs in the spring.
The West Australian newspaper dropped a bombshell report last week claiming it was all but certain Fremantle’s superstar ruck Luke Jackson will request a trade to back to the Melbourne Demons, where his career began, at the end of the season.
I refer to it as a bombshell since, as a Freo fan, I basically blew my house to smithereens when I spotted it in my newsfeed. Think Homer Simpson when Mr Burns forgets his name.
Naturally, the report sparked a totally calm, measured and not-insane-at-all discourse on the internet… lol.
Of course, I am being facetious. The following discussion around the superstar big man’s request was, well, less than sensible – but I expect nothing less from a collection of passionate, one-eyed footy fans!
What makes this one particularly interesting is Demons livewire Kysaiah Pickett. Kozzy has been largely tipped to return to WA, specifically Fremantle, at season’s end.
So, ipso facto, the quick conclusion to jump to here is a straight Jackson for Pickett swap… but what is each player worth? Would one club be getting rorted there?
I tabled our Mongrel Punt group chat with this question, citing my (not at all biased) thoughts that Jackson is worth a bit more than Pickett. He’s a ruckman, a bloody good one, and the Dees are crying out for a Gawn replacement.
From memory, those who responded mostly agreed, but this did get me thinking more broadly about how we as fans tend to over-value our own club’s players.
I reckon Melbourne fans would likely tell you Kozzy is playing the better footy right now, and therefore is worth more. They may even have a point.
That elongated intro leads me to this: A new exercise I’ve cooked up for our Mongrel writers.
The task is simple. I have compiled a list of names, and I am asking our team to tell me what they think they’d be worth at the trade/free agency table.
I specifically haven’t given a criteria for this. There’s no “if they were being traded to a certain team” sort of rule, but we’re also applying common sense, so if a player is heavily linked to a club, we can suggest a trade value based on the receiving club’s assets.
The list of names themselves is a collection of blokes currently involved in trade rumours. Basically, I’m just interested to see how far public opinion can differ on a certain player’s value, and what better guinea pigs to use than a bunch of blokes who sit on their asses watching footy all weekend?
Anyway, I’ve gone first myself, to give the boys an example – I’ve led the horse to water, now make it drink, fellas.
Luke Jackson
Looking for a return to Melbourne following what The West cited as “significant off-field issues”. I have no idea what that means, but anyway.
- Justin – Kozzy + a second round pick. Melbourne will have to pay for Jackson’s ceiling, as well as the fact he is a ruckman. They might also be armed with a fair few picks should Oliver and Petracca revisit trade requests.
- Matt Passmore – Pickett, Second rounder, some kind of future pick swap. This is just a matter of practicality: a player like Jackson comes around maybe once a draft and takes 4 or 5 years to develop. Players like Pickett are everywhere and are often pretty ready to go. Melbourne can lose Pickett and have someone doing the same role just as well within a year or 2 but Fremantle has a massive dent to fill.
- HB Meyers – If he is going to go, and my hope is that he doesn’t, Freo paid a bomb to get him, and need a bomb to come back if he leaves. That bomb comes in the form of Kysaiah Pickett, and a sweetener on top. My reasoning is that a good big man is worth more than a good little man, and Jackson is very good.
- Slugger – Have to agree with the above. If Jackson goes back to Melbourne, Pickett would go a long way to a satisfying return, but he is not enough on his own. It also might mean the Dockers reinvest in Sean Darcy. He could come roaring back from injury and suddenly the Dockers will look like geniuses.
- Disco Monagle – This is a really weird one as Jackson broke his neck to get to Freo and now, a bit like a former Freo Coach, he wants to go back to where he started. Freo needs to play hardball with Jackson, and they should not only be asking for Kysaiah Pickett, but also a future first round pick. Okay, Pickett and a future first round pick for Jackson is not a fair deal, but if Melbourne want to get Jackson back then Freo are entitled to ask for overs to get the deal done.
- Timbo Higgins – It cost Freo two first round picks + a second round pick to get Jackson in, so that should be the baseline for this deal. It won’t be though. With Pickett wanting to get to Freo it will probably be a straight swap + a second rounder from Melbourne, and a bunch of later pick swaps that appear to mean little. I think Jackson is worth more than Pickett, but players rarely do not get to where they want to go these days.
Kysaiah Pickett
Third time lucky lodging a trade request? By reports, wants to get to Freo, going even so far as to text other Dockers players to let them know he will be in purple in 2025.
- Justin – Two first rounders. Brad Green wants three, but I am pretty sure he’s clinically insane. In the Freo specific situation, it’s a swap for Luke Jackson.
- Matt Passmore – a first and second, maybe two firsts if they really push hard. Pickett is a very good player but Freo don’t need him that much and West Coast won’t want to spend more than they need on him.
- HB Meyers – well, we have this covered above, so let’s assume Jackson wants to stay at Freo, shall we? If that’s the case, the Dees will want a bazillion first rounders, according to Brad Green, but they’ll probably settle for one top ten pick, and one in the early teens. If I am Freo, I’d prefer a first and second rounder to be the deal, with the latter a future selection.
- Slugger – Passmore has it right here. A first and a second rounder for Pickett. If they can get Jackson for him, take it and run. This team has small forwards to spare that will continue to develop over the next few years. Unless they have it in their mind that they’re winning the flag in 2026 or 2027, then they should let Pickett go as part of a bit of a mini re-set.
- Disco Monagle – I tend to agree with Brad Green in asking for three first round picks. Pickett is arguably the best player in the AFL especially when he is in full flight. In a conversation I had recently I was adamant all clubs who believe they are in a premiership window should be trying to recruit Kozzie as he is a difference maker.. If Brad Green wants three first round picks then I deem that fair. On a lighter note, the other Mongrel writers openly laughed at me when I suggested a straight swap of Kozzie for Joel Amartey as a fair deal – I still think it is viable?
- Timbo Higgins – If this is part of the Jackson deal then for Melbourne it is pretty much a straight swap. Otherwise, I think Freo gives up a first and a bunch of later pick swaps takes place. I know Kozzie seems to want to go to Freo, but after recruiting Shai Bolton this season, do they need him? Very similar type of player.
Darcy Cameron
Premiership ruckman rumoured to be keen on a return to his home state in WA. West Coast are suitors, but don’t be surprised if Freo joins the party given the Jackson reports.
- Justin – One first rounder. Weird one for the Pies, would be a tough loss, they may want more. I wonder if the Pies would take a flyer on Sean Darcy if the situation presented itself? Freo would obviously need to contribute more to that deal.
- Matt Passmore – straight swap for Sean Darcy would make me happy. But ultimately, he’d go for a couple of seconds rounders or a first rounders with some later round steak knives.
- HB Meyers – I hadn’t even heard anything about this, so this is interesting. Fixes a massive problem for the Eagles, but he turns 30 in July, so I am not sure you want to trade for someone who likely won’t be there when you’re contending again. I’d pass. As for Freo, he only becomes a consideration if either of Darcy/Jackson move. I’d say he remains a Pie and gets a substantial salary increase.
- Slugger – West has to be the only option, yes? I had heard Cameron was considering a move but had not heard WA. Makes sense though. Even if Freo did trade Jackson, surely they’re not getting rid of one ruck just to land another? And one of the same ilk as the one they’re keeping? SURELY NOT! Pies will be wanting a first for him, but may have to settle for a second and maybe a future third, or something similar.
- Disco Monagle – Collingwood is probably the most astute club when it comes to recruiting players who fulfill a specific need. If big Darcy really wants to head west to join the Eagles nest then it wouldn’t surprise me if the Pies asked for Reuben Ginbey in exchange to replace an ageing defender ot three. Cameron for Ginbey pima-facie looks like a fair swap on paper, but if it is not enough to get the job done then the Eagles could soften the exchange by adding Bailey Williams to the deal.
- Timbo Higgins – A a Pies man I’m confident we’ll find a way to keep Cameron, but we have also been bitten before when handing large contracts to ruckmen! He is 30 so any contract over two years is probably a risk, and there may be clubs out there willing to offer him more dollars or a longer tenure to prise him away from the Pies. Teams that could use him in the next year or two would probably be both SA clubs, Geelong and Essendon. Given how the Pies are travelling though, I expect the deal to get done with niether WA club looking promising when it comes to premierships in the near future
Harley Reid
Rumoured to split his body via mitosis and be traded to all 10 Victorian clubs.
- Justin – Three first rounders. He hasn’t done much (if anything) this season, but let’s be realistic. Any team trading for Harley is paying for potential, and he has plenty of it. Also, West Coast isn’t going to let a number one pick walk away easily.
- Matt Passmore – 3 firsts or like 4 from the first and second Rounds. Seriously, the Eagles could use a Reid trade to set up a dominant side. His potential is limitless, so the Eagles should be going hard and cashing in as much as they can. Trade out one Reid, get 3 or 4 players almost as good and there’s a dominant midfield for years to come.
- HB Meyers – My preference is he stays in WA and makes the Eagles his team. However, should he decide to move, he is gonna cost – BIG TIME! I would not be surprised to see a team cough up two first rounders and a future first, with a second coming back, or something like that, to land him. Right now, the Bombers have two picks in the top ten. So do Richmond. What I would really like to see is some mature conversations between player, management, and club, so that everyone knows whether he is staying, or whether they should start chatting with other clubs and making the process as smooth as possible for all. Stay Harley… you’ll be the one to drag the club to the top, eventually.
- Slugger – Come home Harley! You’re from country Victoria. According to the AFL, as soon as you leave the outer suburbs of Melbourne, the rest of the state is basically just Geelong. Would cost a bit though. At least two first round picks plus more. Likely a decent player or two. Not sure I want the Cats to pay such a price. I like the idea of the Bombers, and they’ve got the capital. West Coast could go big in this draft if they do it right and get beefed up with talent before Tassie comes in and cleans house.
- Disco Monagle – How many Joel Amarteys is a stud bull worth? This is a unique situation where the Eagles hold all of the cards, and it wouldn’t surprise me if a big Melbourne club sells the farm and then some to get him to their club. I will watch this one with interest as the rules of diplomacy may be thrown out the door as the bidding war gets hostile.
- Timbo Higgins – I have so many question marks around this. If you are a club chasing him, he is still a massive risk with what he has produced to date. He has had some great moments, but I worry he is not consistent enough or hungry enough when I watch him play – but is that a by product of him being somewhere he doesn’t want to be? 2 first rounders is probably about right, he has no runs on the board really and when you consider Jezza went for three firsts, I don’t think Reid is worth that currently.
Tom De Koning
A free agent, but let’s pretend for a second this would be a trade move. The Saints are offering him a bazillion dollars, Carlton is not… which way will he go?
- Justin – Living in fantasy land and pretending this is a trade, I’d have the Saints coughing up two first round selections for TDK. In a real world scenario, I expect him to be a Saint, and I expect it to help both their forward line and back up ruck positions immensely.
- HB Meyers – I expected him to have re-signed by now. The Blues are not doing themselves any favours by playing so poorly. If he can be paid handsomely to play on a different poor team, then why wouldn’t he do so? How the remainder of the season plays out will likely have an impact on where he plays next season. Over to you, Carlton…
- Slugger – A first and a second round pick should be enough. But, surely Carlton could not justify matching the Saints reported $1.7 million per year?!? What if they match and the Saints baulk at their demands? What if he decides to stay? It would destroy what is left of their already imbalanced salary cap. With the way the Saints have talked this year with Ross Lyon, they’re not about to ruin their entire draft strategy and get swindled for one player, no matter who that is. So much risk involved for everyone.
- Disco Monagle – If TDK doesn’t sign with the Blues in the next month then I suggest he may go and get a Cotton On Contract, with a hobby farm thrown in, from the Cats. I really think it is that simple, either he stays at Carlton or he heads to the Surf Coast.
- Timbo Higgins – Why would you leave one pretender only to go to another? Trading Carlton for St Kilda is like trading a left sock with a hole in it, for a right sock with a hole in it. I guess money talks though and if he does leave, with the dollars being floated about the compo pick will easily be a high first rounder. I do think neither Carlton or St Kilda need to be selling the farm here though – Marshall is a better ruck, Pittonet is a fine ruckman. Carlton probably don’t need him forward of the ball with McKay/Curnow, but maybe that’s where St Kilda see him?
Matt Rowell
Another number one draft pick with Vic clubs circling the Suns hard nut.
- Justin – Two first round picks. Sounds crazy having Rowell ranked less valuable than Reid, but this is how the trade world works. Feel like this one will be polarising among the Mongrel crew.
- HB Meyers – He is not a free agent, so you have to pay to pry him away from Gold Coast, and the Suns will be asking a bomb! What do you offer for a bloke who can lead the league in tackles, contested possessions, and clearances? I ask because I think that is Rowell’s ceiling. Two picks in the top 12 for this bloke is a reasonable price to pay. That said, I hope he re-ups with the Suns, who look like they’re on the verge of something great.
- Slugger – Has to be two first round picks, or one and a first 18 player. The Suns are likely about to enter a contending window and they’re not going to want to be offloading one of their three best midfielders to another team who they could be matching up against in September without it costing them something on the way back.
- Disco Monagle – If Rowell moves on from the Carrara for greener pastures then there will be a feeding frenzy from all clubs to get his signature. Having said that, I don’t believe the Suns will let him go – full stop! It would be a backward step for the Suns who are finally developing a good culture to release him. Rowell stays! I have a soft spot for the Suns and this is the time for them to stand strong and succeed.
- Timbo Higgins – Yeah two firsts I would say. There aren’t too many clubs who couldn’t use a player like Rowell. I still maintain the player the Pies missed the most through injury last year was Tom Mitchell – he offers what Rowell offers and we had no-one else who could offer that last season. I know Pies were heavily linked with Rowell, but I think the emergence of Ned Long has cooled any interest. Rowell is undoubtedly a better player than Long, but the Pies really ask for guys to fill roles in their system, and Long is filling the roll Rowell would be in.
Zak Butters
No Kenny after this year, so apparently Zak might want out. The Herald Sun reports the Bulldogs are frontrunners for his signature, with Sam McClure adding the Hawks are in with a sniff.
- Justin – Two first rounders + steak knives. Has to be the same as Rowell, if not worth more. If Port wants a player in the package, I’d be putting my hand out for Joel Freijah.
- HB Meyers – Geez, there are some names being floated here. Firstly, if I am Port, I throw the kitchen sink at this bloke. He is a heart and soul player that can back it up with skill. They just don’t come around that often. My guess is that if he does want out, it will be to a contender, and the thing about that is there isn’t usually contenders with a lot of high draft picks to throw back. If he wants out, this one will be messy an won’t be done until just before the final bell during trade period.
- Slugger – If he leaves it starts at 2 first round picks. To a team only likely to play Geelong and Oisin Mullin once each year.
- Disco Monagle – Should he stay, or should he go? There are not many players in the AFL who are entitled to choose where they want to finish their career, but Butters is one who is entitled to determine where and on what terms he wants to finish his career. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes to Collingwood with Pendles and Sidebottom coming to the end of their decorated careers, or he ends up in the harbour city in a deal involving Joel Amartey.
- Timbo Higgins – 2 firsts. Out of Reid, Rowell and Butters I think Butters is the player I rate the highest. When he is up and going Port look an infinitely better side. He is quick and uncompromising in his attack on the ball. Any club would love to have him.
Christian Petracca
The Dees superstar requested a move last year, but it was shut down. Will he try again in 2025?
- Justin – Two first round picks. But will “Brand Petracca” land where he wants? Could Collingwood or Carlton accommodate a deal like this?
- Matt Passmore – second rounder, maybe a third if they’re lucky. I feel like his best years are behind him and clubs won’t want to give up too much of their future. Top 4 sides going for a crack may be interested, but they’ll be weary of a Tim Kelly Repeat.
- HB Meyers – You know, I wouldn’t pay as much for Trac as I would Rowell or Butters. You’re just gonna get more from those blokes over the journey. Trac is contracted until 2029. You’re going to have to pay way overs for him, and he turns 30 before the start of the next season. A first rounder, and maybe a second, but that’d be the extent of my offer… which is why I wouldn’t land him.
- Slugger – Agree with HB here. Petracca has lost some value in the last 18 months. Two firsts is probably more than he is worth right now. A first and second rounder would be about right for the right club (maybe a swap of later picks and a steak knives player?). Hard to see where he might end up. People love to drag the big clubs’ names into this, but is the interest really there? Big contract. Big identity. You get the best of him and anything you pay will be unders, but how much of that is left?
- Disco Monagle – Petracca’s body language this year suggests he may want to move on at the end of the season from the Dees. There are a few clubs up north who are looking for the missing link to be a contender at the pointy end of the season and Petracca would fill that hole. It would be mutually beneficial for Petracca to move himself from the Victorian bubble to reside up north to fill the void of a club on the verge of contending. Possibly two future first round picks and as a sweetener, maybe a player like Joel Amartey.
- Timbo Higgins – When the Pies were linked last year, I remember thinking it was a risk considering what it would cost. I was also questioning how he would come back from his horrific injury. There is no arguing with his form so far this year, particularly if he doesn’t want to be at Melbourne – he’s not really showing it. Given his age though, I think one first rounder would be enough, although Brad Green would probably want three, the soul of your first-born child and naming rights to your next child.
Clayton Oliver
Another Dee who wants to move, but unlike Petracca, this bloke’s value has dropped dramatically over the past 18 months.
- Justin – A second round pick. Sounds absolutely insane, but Oliver hasn’t played good footy for a long time now and comes with significant baggage. The receiving team will have some leverage here.
- Matt Passmore – mid to late second rounder. Ultimately Melbourne need to take what they can get and he’s too unreliable for Melbourne to be fussy.
- HB Meyers – A massive fall in value over the last two years. He would have been the type to command two early picks. Now, if he truly wants out and requests a trade, he comes with baggage, so not only will the Dees have to accept peanuts, but they’ll end up paying part of his salary, too. The offers will be lowballers, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up staying again. Even if he maintains his current level of play, he is worth more to the Dees than they’ll get back in a trade.
- Slugger – To the Cats for a future 2nd round pick. Next! Could’ve got the farm for him last year with a future first and third and stacked themselves up for a big draft, but the Dees were just a bit too delusional to see the cliff coming.
- Disco Monagle – Clarry lives life to the beat of his own drum, and any decision he makes at season’s end would not surprise. Anyone who watched Oliver’s game last weekend would have little doubt that at his best he is still one of the best in the game. I have a gut feeling Clayton will end up at either Hawthorn or the Bulldogs, or he stays at Melbourne. Whatever he does at the end of the season it will be entertaining and it will generate a lot of click-bait. (It doesn’t matter which way I look at this, I doubt Joel Amartey would be the sweetener.)
- Timbo Higgins – Honestly, I wouldn’t trade anything for him. At his best he is a great player, but we haven’t seen his best for awhile. Consistent off-field issues and injuries have dogged him the last few seasons, and he is about to turn 28 – it’s not like we are talking about a 19 year old making these sort of mistakes off-field. I figure he lands at Geelong for a 2nd rounder – they have a history of rehabilitating players like this for minimum cost. The Geelong nightlife will really come alive with Clarry and Baz down there!
Nasaiah Wanganeen-Milera
Talk is he wants to head home to South Australia, but I’m sure other clubs outside of SA will also have a crack at this rare talent.
- Justin – Two first round picks + steak knives. I actually don’t think it would be unreasonable to ask for three first round picks. This bloke is a superstar.
- HB Meyers – Eek! Port and the Crows must be cracking open the piggy banks for this bloke. He is 22, playing great footy, and looks like he will be one of the best players in the game at some stage. Start at two first rounders and work out a deal from there. Imperative that St Kilda hold onto him.
- Slugger – Wow. What a heart breaker this would be for Saints fans. Looks like a lock for HBF AA Blazer in 2025. Done his time learning his craft and now might leave just as he is about to pay dividends. At least 2 first round picks and a little bit more. Butters coming the other way could smooth things over a bit. How long has it been for a direct player-to-player swap? Would anyone lose in that trade?
- Disco Monagle – Nasiah is a real special talent, and if he is available for talks then all clubs would be obliged to do their due-diligence to try and secure him. South Australia might be his desire, but I reckon an apartment in Bondi and a juicy contract might swing him. At the very least, Wanganeen-Milera is worth at least two first round picks and a player like Joel Amartey as part of the deal.
- Timbo Higgins – Probably two first rounders. Collingwood essentially gave up 2 players and first round rick to land Houston, and “The Big Wang” is worth more purely due to being younger. His last few weeks have shown he is more than a just half-back as well, with Ross using him all over the field.
James Worpel
Another free agent, but again, let’s play imaginary trade machine. Linked to the Cats, the Hawthorn midfielder could be a great value pick up for the right team.
- Justin – If he was a trade asset, a second round pick would get the job done. As a free agent, I’ve got him playing in the blue and white hoops next year.
- HB Meyers – F’n Geelong… always have that pull of the Falcons that brings them back. I thought he was gonna go the last time his contract was up, but now…he’s free to leave via free agency. No team matches a bid, these days, so if he wants to go to Geelong, I hope they pay him heaps, so the Hawks get decent compensation, at least.
- Slugger – Wooo!!! Free player! Will slot in nicely next to Atkins, Smith and whoever happens to be the ruckman of the day.
- Disco Monagle – Another looking for a Surf Coast hobby farm and a Cotton On contract, or in another universe, a second round pick and Joel Amartey.
- Timbo Higgins – Geelong will have to decide which inside midfielder they want out of Rowell, Oliver and Worpel apparently! Given Worpel is a FA he would obviously cost them the least in terms of draft capital, but even if a trade had to be negotiated, I think it would cost them more than Clarry – that’s how far I believe Clarry has fallen. Worpel is only 26 and often flies under the radar at the Hawks. Has been super consistent and no off-field issues that I am aware of.
There you go. Who got them right and who is a little swayed by their own team? And will Disco Monagle get his way and jettison Joel Amartey from the Swans? I hear he isn’t a big fan.
