ROUND TEN
Another week, and another set of self-inflicted own goals and controversies at AFL House. We are almost at the point where more headlines are coming off-field than on it, and that’s a damn shame, given the quality of football we are seeing every week. As we enter into Part One of the Sir Doug Nicholls Round, we set ourselves with anticipation to celebrate the moments on-field.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Ten.
The Guarantee
Collingwood narrowly overcome the Crows thanks to a controversial non-call from the umpires. I mean, this headline writes itself given the recent history of these two. In 2025, it’s the frugal Pies defence up against the free-scoring Crows – Pies are ranked #1 for scores conceded and the Crom is #1 for points scored. This will be a fascinating contest and will really test the overall credentials of Matthew Nicks’ Crows.
The Pies will get some reinforcements back for Saturday’s clash and look primed to go deep again this year. The Crows are building nicely. They’ve stumbled once thus far in big games (Gather Round) and wouldn’t want to do it again.
As exciting as their footy is, the Pies play the ‘G so well. I don’t see them dropping this.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
The Saints lose to the Eagles. You know what, I’m gonna take a punt and tip this. The Saints have been pretty solid this year and have been pushing more highly fancied teams. However, given the Eagles got so close to winning this year against the Tigers, they would have to be buoyed to go one better. It shapes as a snoozefest – we saw how Ross the Boss turned last week’s game into a dour, no-scoring, slugfest, and the Eagles, well, they just aren’t very good. If the Eagles can get the crowd going early, they could pinch this one.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
Part of me wants to select the Swans here, but I will save them for another section. The Suns have won their last seven in Darwin. They play the ground and conditions well – playing consecutive games there and not travelling in between helps.
After almost dropping the game last week against the Dogs, and the Hawks having to fight harder than expected against Melbourne, I reckon that Hokball is a legit chance to get this done. Sam Mitchell will have a plan, he will have got his players up and about for this one. Do not be surprised if the Hawks FIFO and cause an upset of sorts.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
I said I’d mention the Swans somewhere else, well, to quote Paul Roos: “here it is!”
On paper, expected output, and current form, you’d probably expect the Blues to beat the Swans at the SCG. Maybe not super comfortably, but they have been a little better overall.
However, there have been signs in recent weeks that the Swans are getting back into the groove. Their win against the Giants two weeks ago, and their fightback last week show that they can play good football. Don’t sleep on the Swans in this one.
Essential Result (Must Win)
This category can apply to both the Power from Port and the Cats. Both lost in tight games last week and will want to respond. Geelong have won 6 of their last 7 in Adelaide, and ransacked the Power in last year’s Qualifying Final at this venue.
Port have the extra day and no travel, but can their forward line function against a Cats defence that seems likely to receive reinforcements? It shapes up as an intriguing game. Midfield dominance and, therefore, field position will play a big part in this one. Geelong have the weapons to go up against the Power, but also can be a bit inconsistent around the ball.
A win for the Power keeps them in touch. A win for the Cats gives them some breathing space in the top eight.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Fremantle and Justin Longmuir. This seems to be becoming a regular segment, potting JL and his side. They are littered with talent, but perpetually underwhelm and fail to deliver. The Giants had a great win at their new home ground of Alphabet (GMHBA) Stadium in Geelong, while the Dockers came up short against a slightly depleted Pies.
On the road this week, the Dockers have an opportunity to show some heart, some courage, and some footballing skill as they hit the road and try to beat the Giants at their home base. It’s unlikely, but this season has been full of surprises thus far. Why can’t the Dockers shock everyone? (They won’t).
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Saturday Night at Superhero Stadium puts the rampaging Dogs against the unexpected Bombers. Under the roof, this could be a shoot-out. Essendon are growing, and their young players are emerging before our eyes. And we know what the Dogs can do.
This game shapes up as a really interesting contest that is likely to be close. (I say this, and the Dogs might blow them away.) The test for the Dogs will be their recovery from Darwin’s conditions last week, and then if the Bombers can follow up their performance by taking out a contender.
Keep an eye on the bevy of young stars in both sides.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
It’s hard to gauge who the underdog should be out of Richmond and North. Sure, the Tigers have three wins and North have 1.5. But North are further along their rebuild – well, at least, they should be.
Last week the Tigers barely escaped against the Eagles, while North claimed a draw against the reigning Premier – albeit, they butchered things late and tried to kick a goal rather than simply fashion a score. There were good signs from North, so the question is, can they back it up? I’m not sure, as consistency hasn’t been a strong suit of theirs.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Willie Rioli. I expect that he returns to the field this weekend – it wouldn’t be SDNR without him – and it’ll be interesting to see how he navigates the challenges of recent weeks. The Cats’ defence has been a sieve in recent weeks – but may have some reinforcements for this week – so it shapes as a great opportunity for Willie to fill his boots, so to speak.
His side narrowly lost the Showdown, so they will want to bounce back. Willie can lead the charge up forward and will be important for positive Power results.
The Don (player of the round)
This might hurt me in the end, but Jeremy Cameron hasn’t quite been at the level we expect of him this year. That’s fine, as Premierships aren’t won in the first 9 weeks. But he needs to start to get rolling. What better time than this weekend against the Power? Aliir Aliir and Esava Ratugolea weren’t great last week and are down in confidence. I’m backing Jezza to get back to somewhere near his best.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
I’m loving what Harvey Langford is doing this year. I wanted him to be a Cat, but that was never likely. But I’ve kept a fascinated eye on him and what he is doing. He was excellent last week against the Hawks, and he has the chance this weekend to face off against the Ashcroft boys and perhaps flex on them. Show that he has them covered with what he can do.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Izak Rankine, returning to the scene of heartache against the Pies, to have 25+ disposals, kick 4 goals, have 10 clearances, and absolutely show out!
The Winners (currently on 50; last week 5)
Gold Coast
Sydney
Collingwood
Greater Western Sydney
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Richmond
Brisbane Lions
West Coast
These predictions were made with only Thursday Night teams revealed. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
You can buy Jimmy a coffee for his efforts if you like? He puts in the hard yards to bring you these free articles… and he does like a coffee.
Hit the link below and give Jimmy his caffeine fix.
Or, you could join The Mongrel as a member and leave the mainstream echo chamber behind
