ROUND EIGHT
There’s been controversies all week – from Tribunal deficiencies and inconsistencies to clubs trying to cancel certain AFL journos. It’s been spicy, and so this weekend shapes up to be spicy itself. Some same town clashes, to modern powerhouses facing off again, there’s lots to be excited about this weekend.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Seven.
The Guarantee
Apparently, there’s some connection between the Federal Elections and Collingwood winning. If this is the case, then I am prepared to double down on the stat and say Collingwood beats Geelong on Saturday Night.
The Pies are cruising, and the Cats looked tired on Sunday. The Cats have another six-day break, while the Pies enjoy their second eight-day break in a row. I’m not insinuating anything, just outlining a fact. Besides, the Pies form is solid while the Cats haven’t been convincing across four quarters yet this season.
In terms of the election, there will be a winner and there will be a loser – you heard it here first.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
This is probably a major overreaction, but after finally beating a team not named West Coast or North Melbourne, Carlton can’t back it up and win again. The Blues fans are already up and about and getting carried away – rightly so, Geelong are the greatest team of all – but they wouldn’t want to let this slip.
Nor would the Crows. After being the favourites in their dash across the Nullabor last week, the Crows failed to escape with four points. Darcy Fogarty is in line to return, and while Mitch Hinge was the victim of corruption, the Crows need this. Having dropped a few games over the past month following an encouraging start to the season, their season is again on the line before the halfway mark.
Both teams need to win, and for the loser, they step into a nightmare scenario.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
Hugo Garcia and his Saints. The teenager was roasted by Angry Ross (Cuddly Ross has disappeared) on the weekend for his subpar performance. One of the things a spray does to a player is show their resilience and ability to respond. If you wilt because of a spray, you don’t believe at the top level. Garcia seems like the sort who will come out ready to respond. I think he will, and that the Saints will upset the Dockers at Superhero Stadium under Friday Night lights.
There comes a time for every player to mature, and I hope that this can be the game for Hugo Garcia to do that.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
After the week they’ve had and throwing the toys out of the cot towards the Korn (Kane Cornes), expect North to come out with a chip on their shoulder. Expect them to hunt the footy and their opponent.
Essendon are gettable, even if they are a better side than the shinboners. So, I’m going out on a limb and tipping North to win on Thursday Night. Also, who thought this match would be a good idea for prime time?
Essential Result (Must Win)
Having recently remembered what winning feels like (two in a row), the Demons must win their third game as they venture West to face the hapless, disastrous, and all-around basket case West Coast Eagles. Their coach bemoaned their opponents shifting their fullback forward last week (Tom Barrass at the Hawks) – McQualter, maybe focus on getting your side to be cohesive and be competitive before bemoaning resting players, etc… as disrespectful.
The Dees will lose all their goodwill and any semblance of form they’ve found if they drop this game.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Sydney. They have had moments in games where they’ve looked incredible, but they have yet to put four quarters of good football together. With a dysfunctional forward line, some key players missing, and yet to find their mojo under big Cox, the Swans need a line in the sand game.
Coming up against their little brother in the Battle of the Bridge this weekend, they find the Giants smarting after their loss last week. They are a little bit vulnerable, and if the Swans are ever going to shop up in season 2025, this is the weekend. They must limit Lachie Whitfield off half-back and Tom McCartin MUST play full-back on Jesse Hogan; any other match-up, and he kicks 6+ and the Giants romp it in.
The Must Watch (match-up or game)
Most people will probably point to Saturday Night and the election, however, I think that the two really interesting games this weekend are the early Saturday game (Dogs v Port in Ballarat) and the last game of the round, the Q Clash – or, as I saw it referred to on X recently, the Pineapple Grapple.
Let’s focus on the early Saturday game. The Dogs are playing some incredible footy. The return of the Bont has been stellar, and the Dogs continue to show up and play an exciting brand of footy. The Power have been good, bad, and indifferent at various points. They need a win to stay in touch with the top 8, and the Dogs want to push the top four.
The midfield battle will be where this is won and lost. I know that that’s no surprise, but the way in which the Port mids can limit the Dogs mids and then impact going forward will be decisive in this one. Can Zak Butters – who is possibly auditioning for his spot in the Dogs midfield next year – and the horny one curtail Bont and Libba? Can Willem Drew do a job?
With the form of Matt Kennedy and the depth of the Dogs’ midfield line, I think they edge out the Pear. Just. In a cracking game of footy. We’ll see how accurate this turns out to be when I review this game over the weekend.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
We likely all expect Hokball to account for the Tigers on Sunday. The challenge for the Hawks is that they’ve come off an uncompetitive game against the Eagles and now face another struggling side. Can they motivate themselves to perform?
Teams have shown that good small forwards can have an impact against the Hawks. So, I’m going to back in Seth Campbell, who could well be in All-Australian squad contention, to kick 3+ and be one of Richmond’s best.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
The AFL being a contact sport – notably, it’s a big weekend for the tackle. After Paul Curtis copped a three-game ban for a legal tackle, questions are now being asked if the game is done, finished. Maybe not quite there, but I hope that the North players all wear black armbands for the death of the tackle.
The tribunal also needs a response and to sort itself out. With Adam Cerra and Mitch Hinge both challenging one-game bans for the SAME THING, how is it that the Blues player is successful and the Crows man isn’t? There is clearly some form of Carlton bias at AFL House – especially in this instance, with the Blues and Crows squaring off against each other this weekend.
Kane Cornes. He’s been cancelled by a few clubs for doing his job. Love him or hate him, he speaks his mind and isn’t afraid to ruffle some feathers. Hopefully, channel 7 put him on to broadcast one of the teams who won’t engage with him, just for fun.
The Don (player of the round)
It’s easy to back in the Bont or Nick Daicos (who Geelong don’t have a natural match-up for) for this weekend. But I want to look up North at the Pineapple Grapple and back in Matt Rowell. The Lions will start favourites, but they haven’t faced the Suns in this form. Rowell and co need to have big games and set the tone. I’m backing him in for 25+ disposals, 15+ contested, and 10+ clearances to set the tone for his team.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Hugh Boxshall showed a lot during the pre-season. His ability to cover the ground and find the ball will benefit the Saints a lot over the coming years. Regardless of whether he starts or debuts as the sub, I am expecting some highlights from this kid.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Given they’ll be doing a lot of defending, I’m backing in Tom Atkins to continue his unprecedented and history-making start to the year and have another game with 12+ tackles.
The Winners (currently on 40; last week 8)
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Carlton
Melbourne
Collingwood
Greater Western Sydnet
Hawthorn
Brisbane Lions
These predictions were made with all team lists available and a game late – that’s on me. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
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