As this week’s games come before us, we are starting to find trends in matches and for teams. For some, they are setting up their season nicely … just don’t forget that Premierships are not won in March/April. And for others, their season is already teetering. What we do know is that all it takes is a single win to get some momentum rolling.
While we think we know what’s going on, we can rest assured that things will continue to pivot and change. What can we expect this week? The things we love about the game and no doubt something that infuriates us.
Be forewarned, while I am the Mongrel Punt’s resident oracle for all things AFL, I hold no liability for your bad betting and using my predictions in your multis. So, please, gamble responsibly.
So, strap yourselves in for the Prophet’s Predictions for Round Four.
The Guarantee
The Giants bounce back. This is a relative no-brainer given the quality of the characters in the Giants lineup, and it is compounded because they play the basket case Eagles. The Giants will do this in a canter. The big question is about how ruthless they choose to be and by how much they choose to win.
The Ultimate Nightmare (Worst Case Scenario)
Carlton go 0-4. For neutral fans, this may be cause for celebration, but for the Lygon Street faithful, and for Michael Voss, the jungle drums will hit fever pitch if Thursday Night doesn’t end in a win. With the way the Blues are playing and their inability to score, you can’t tip them. It looks like another long week for Blues fans, another ill-fated bet for Richmond Gorringe, and perhaps and early end of season for Michael Voss. They need a win to kickstart their season, but also to buck the trend of only one win in 270+ days.
The Outsider (unexpected winner)
Western Bulldogs (based on betting odds). I think that on form, the Dogs are clear favourites. However, because the game is in Perth, the Dockers are favourites. While Freo finally got a win on the board, they have been vanilla, underwhelming, and not threatening. The Dogs have navigated injuries and unavailability really well, and I expect them to continue their form with a win over the Dockers, even if Freo looks a better side with Shai Bolton running around.
The Money Maker (Bold Call)
As I’m writing this, I’ve seen that Tom Papley is now injured. This impacts the Swans in a few ways – the energy he brings and how he impacts the scoreboard. Can the Swans cover this? They’d love to have Luke Parker and/or Jacob Konstanty this weekend … alas, they are playing for their opponent. North have been really brave this year. We have seen greater consistency from them and with the continued injuries for the Swom, this is a legitimate chance for the Roos to cause an upset and steal a win. Do I have the faith to tip them? That remains to be seen.
Essential Result (Must Win)
Port Adelaide must win this weekend. The Saints have been great at Marvel, but questions remain away from their roofed stadium home. The Power legitimately turn up at home, so on that logic, the Power should win. But, they have been far from convincing. If Port are going to show any form of heart, then they turn up and win this week. I will back them to do that, but not with a lot of confidence.
Port will need to bring the fight and a ruthless aggression, reminiscent of a young John Cena, to combat the way that the Saints have been moving the ball and the ability of their small and mid-sized players to score.
Most at Stake (Vulnerable)
Geelong. Having lost their last two, and coming up against the winless and hapless Demons in Geelong, the Cats must win this. A loss here leaves significant questions about their season and their ability to win. This is simply a game the Cats cannot lose. Some have referenced the destroyation in 2011 and this week having a similar vibe – I don’t see it. Melbourne will be up for the fight and they often rise to the challenge in these games. Can Geelong put together four complete quarters? That’s the big question.
The Must Watch (match up or game)
1.20pm on Saturday, on the Goldy. Imagine, before the season even started, that you get to Round 4, which features Carlton v Collingwood and Geelong v Melbourne, that the headline act, the must-watch game, is between the suns of the Gold Coast sky and the pride of South Australia.
With the Suns and the Crows both undefeated thus far, this shapes as a red-hot, high-scoring affair. The Crows have been ruthless in their attack on the ball, and their ball movement has been fun to watch. This is culminating in big scores. The Suns, albeit with a two-game sample size, are showing some maturity. They have been solid at home in recent seasons, so I think they pull off a little upset this week, in their first game at home, and they outscore the Crows in a shoot-out.
The Sam Collins v Riley Thilthorpe match up will be fun to watch.
The Unexpected (underdog performance)
While I expect Brisbane to do a number on the Tigers, I’m hopeful that there continue to be some moments for the young Tigers. Toby Nankervis has had a great start to the season, and I expect that to continue in the ruck. Can some of the young blokes come with him and prevent this from being a blowout? I’m going to back the Tigers in to be within five goals at the closing siren.
It’s a Big Weekend For …
Oscar Allen. After being careless in when and how he met with Hawks coach Sam Mitchell, the Eagles Co-Captain must show up this weekend. After a terrible derby in which you might be excused for thinking he didn’t play, Allen needs to let his football do the talking.
The Don (player of the round)
The winner of the Caleb Serong v Tom Liberatore battle. These two have been in incredible form and have been well supported by their teammates. Libba has taken to captaincy like a duck to water. And Serong continues to shine. Whoever can have the most influence of these two will go a long way … in fact, I’ll declare that the winner of this match up wins their team the match.
The Underboss (rookie of the round)
Geelong have an innate ability to allow opposition young players to have career games. Harvey Langford returned with a vengeance for the Demons last week, and given the way he plays, he is the type of player that could light up GMHBA Stadium and cause the Cats some issues.
Individual Brilliance (predicting a stat accomplishment like x goals or marks)
Toby Greene, Jake Stringer, and Jesse Hogan to combine for 15+ goals against the Eagles. Don’t just pencil it in, write it in pen!
The Winners (currently on 18; last week 5)
Collingwood
Geelong
Gold Coast
Brisbane Lions
North Melbourne
Greater Western Sydney
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
These predictions were made with only the Thursday Night teams available. Drop us your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned over the coming weeks to see how the Prophet goes with his predictions.
