Well, after the AFL did their utmost to ruin the momentum of the season, it is time to start generating it again.
We’re a couple of days off all 18 clubs finally getting out onto the park for a proper round of footy, and with that, comes some expectation and excitement that simply wasn’t there last weekend. I’m so glad to put that shitshow behind us and move into the proper season.
And with that comes some things I am looking forward to. So, why not go all-in on those and have a look at HB’s Great Expectations for Round One.
THE TIGER CUBS
Everyone expects the Blues to romp this one home, and for good reason. The Magpies hammered Richmond in the AAMI series, treating them like a bunch of kids.
Largely because they were a bunch of kids, but a week earlier, one of those kids stood up. And he has put his hand up for a Round One berth despite fracturing his jaw a couple of weeks ago.
Carlton have their own debutante, with Lucas Camporeale to play his first game, but most eyes will be on the Tiger cubs, and how they stand up to the heat of Round One.
Sam Lalor will be in the team, as will Luke Trainor, and Harry Armstrong.
This is the draft that the Tigers had to nail. They went all in on it, and we now get to see three of their prized picks trot out for their first games. They’re going to be up against it – the Blues are battle-hardened, and have bolstered their defence with Nick Haynes, whilst the Tigers not only lost names like Graham, Baker, and Rioli, but also see Noah Balta on the sidelines, serving suspension.
It might get ugly… just look for the positives, and think about the long-term, Tiger fans.
NO FEAR AT THE CATTERY
I make a point of watching Freo visit Kardinia Park e ery chamce I get. It holds no fear for them, and I reckon they take it as a challenge, internally, every visit.
Both Freo and GWS have had some great success at the Cattery, and the Dockers will be looking to re-establish that “anyone, anywhere, anytime” mantra that is always present when they have good seasons.
What better way to implement that than at one of the toughest road games of the season?
They are not without issues to deal with – Sean Darcy is still a month away, whilst Hayden Young and Alex Pearce are both touch and go for the contest, but this Freo team promises so much. Let’s see what they can deliver!
I’ll be keeping a close eye on Shai Bolton. I’m not a fan of what he produced against tough opposition in his time at Richmond over the last couple of years. This is a big test for him.
As for the Cats, they are once again flying under the radar. You know who is on their injury list? Cam Guthrie… that’s it! He’s barely been a part of the team for two years; they work around him, now. They’re cherry ripe in 2025.
Sleep on them at your own risk. Round One, at home, with an injury-free list… you can be up for it all you like, but this is a tough, tough ask.
Did you know it’s been eight years since Geelong beat Fremantle at Kardinia Park?
Interesting, huh?
TIME TO GET WACKO?
One of the stories of the pre-season was the rise of Isaac Kako in the esteem of not only Essendon supporters, but of all footy lovers.
Let’s face it – we love when a fresh face hits the big time and brings some excitement with him, regardless of what colours they wear. And Kako gave the Bombers something they’d really been missing – a genuine, lively, pressuring small forward.
He strikes me as the type of player that has the crowd volume rise whenever he heads toward the footy – you can never have enough of those blokes out there. They make footy worth watching.
Throw in Nate Caddy launching at the high ball, and Elijah Tsatas winning clearances… the new breed of Bombers looks great!
The Hawks have a dilemma, with James Worpel on the sidelines. His ball-winming ability in the guts allowed both Will Day and Jai Newcombe to get forward in Round Zero. How they address his absence will be an interesting watch. If it were up to me, I’d push Finn Maginness into the guts, superglue him to Zach Merrett, and make someone else beat you.
Also, I reckon Nick Watson might have a fire lit under him after an underwhelming Round Zero. I’d back him to upstage the small forward at the opposite end of the ground. I’ve got him kicking three.
THE GRAND FINAL REMATCH
A daunting prospect for the Swans, who welcome the premiers to the SCG and are looking at an 0-2 start to 2025 if they cannot get the job done.
Sydney played 20 minutes of good footy in the opening round – they did that on multiple occasions in 2024, and so good were those periods of footy, they were able to put teams away with them. But they need to become a four-quarter team again, and not this surge-based squad, surviving on patches of brilliance.
The Lions have had their training all discombobulated, due to the impact of the cyclone, and they’d be champing at the bit to get out on the park and get their season started. Lachie Neale is injury-free, which is concerning for everyone else, and they have Darcy Gardiner, Keidean Coleman, and Tom Doedee all working back from ACL injuries. Line by line… they’re a formidable unit, even with the horrible news that Linc McCarthy suffered a second ACL injury in as many seasons, just today.
Key matchup for me? The McInerney v Grundy clash in the ruck. Brodie was humbled a little last week – he looked like a player who just got over the line in a fitness test, and Lloyd Meek got the better of him early on. The Big O is a workhorse, and will push Grundy hard, as well. The Swans’ big man needs to make those most of those second efforts he’s made his name on.
And he might need a back-up in the team, as well. McLean or Ladhams?
THE ROOS WILL NEVER GET A BETTER SHOT AT THE DOGS
Okay North… no more screwing around.
Here, you have the wounded Western Bulldogs, without Liam Jones (their number one defender), Marcus Bontempelli (their number one player), Cody Weightman (their number one small forward), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (their number one… something), and maybe Bailey Dale (their number one rebounder).
If you end up as number two in this game, it is a massive fail.
Amazing to think that the heat is on the Roos heading into this one, but I genuinely think it is. They have a team that, George Wardlaw aside, is about as good as it is going to get. They are starting with a clean slate and have recruited experienced players into the mix to offer leadership.
This is it.
This is where it pays off.
Are North going to finally make a move and drag themselves out of the cellar? They have a wounded Dogs outfit in front of them. They just have to exhibit a killer instinct.
Also, calling it now – if North win, it’ll be Caleb Daniel… three votes.
HOW ARE THE LEGS THIS WEEK?
The Pies ran up and down on the one spot against the Giants last weekend, blown off the park and made to look tired, old, and slow.
Maybe they are tired, old, and slow, but they’re nowhere near as bad as they looked in that game. Surely, right?
Fast-forward six days and they have a visit from Port, whose hard run from their onballers has been a game breaker in the past. Sadly, they’ll be without Zak Butters this week, which drops that midfield unit down a few notches, and slows them down, as well.
Port will need to lean on Connor Rozee to get off the chain in the midfield and do some damage in a game that counts (he was excellent in the pre-season), whilst the return of Sam Powell-Pepper adds more toughness to this unit.
As for the Pies, so much focus will be on Nick Daicos. He was shot after halftime of the season opener, and without too many other game breakers in the mix (particularly if Jordan de Goey doesn’t get up), they’re going to lean on him, again.
CROWS’ CHANCE TO FLEX
This should be a live kill for the Crows, and a chance to get their season off to a great start.
Playing the Saints at home, with St Kilda missing Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou, and Dougal Howard, means that Adelaide *should* be able to get hold of them.
But I am not writing the Saints off. Not yet. I saw something in this mob in the back half of 2024, and I saw it in them in 2023, as well. There is heart in this group, and hard work beats talent when talent does not work hard.
The Crows are going to need all three of Fogarty, Walker, and Thilthorpe controlling the air and stretching the thin St Kilda talls down back, whilst the Saints are going to need something special from Rowan Marshall to drag them over the line.
Also, if I were sitting in Matthew Nicks’ chair, I would be very proactive in limiting the run of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera. If the Crows simply allow him to dictate terms off half-back, he is going to hurt them. I’d go to a bloke like Luke Pedlar, give him the role of making life difficult for him, and reap the rewards. But that’s just me…
A GAWN MASTERCLASS?
I loved what I saw from the Giants in the opening round, and now they get an early taste of MCG action, facing the Dees on Sunday.
But this isn’t the same Melbourne as 2024 – no, this is a Melbourne team with their midfield fully functioning again, and as the Giants enter the game without their best, and really, only big man, Kieren Briggs, Max Gawn must be licking his lips.
Gawn is the best ruck of his generation by a fair margin, and coming into a clash with Lachie Keeffe and maybe someone like Max Gruzewski, or Leek Aleer as the backup… things could get messy.
With Viney, Oliver, and Petracca, all hanging around like clearance monsters at stoppages, the Giants will be hoping that Tom Green has done enough to get back and even things up in the middle. Otherwise, I feel the Dees may be able to get hold of GWS out of the guts.
Gawn is good enough to play over the top of some of the best rucks in the game. I’m a little afraid of what he might do against Keeffe.
THE TEST
So, the Achilles Heel of the Suns in 2024 was their abysmal road record. It was only rectified late in the season, when the finals were out of the question, meaning that when they needed to win on the road, they failed.
And now they have a very-winnable game in Round One.
I know this is a very early call, but we’re going to find out a fair bit about the Suns in Round One. This is the EXACT type of game the club should be picking up this season, whilst maintaining a solid defence of their own home fortress. They got the latter part right in 2024, but these trips… they really troubled the Suns.
Damien Hardwick pulled no punches with his assessment of where the club is at, telling them they need to grow up. This is where the growing up starts. Away from home, against a rebuilding club… time to heed the words of the coach.
As for the Eagles, they have added toughness, with Jack Graham using the AAMI Series to demonstrate just what a strong body can do to a midfield group. He played a ten minute patch that made the Eagles walk taller, and both he and Liam Baker will be vital to West Coast sending the Suns home with their tails between their legs.
So there we go. Plenty to look forward to from where I sit, with a full round of footy the best thing that could possibly happen for the league right now.
Seriously, did you see what was passing as footy ‘news’ over the last few days? The Fox Footy score update, two coaches had a discussion, and Christian Petracca changed management groups.
Let’s get on with the good stuff and leave that bullshit in Round Zero where it belongs.
As always, massive thanks to those who support this work. You can see the amount of care that goes into it. I love footy, I love writing about it, and I hope you enjoy reading it. Without you, this whole thing falls over. Sincerely… thank you – HB
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