PART EIGHT: THE CHAMPION AND THE CONTENDER
We’re at the pointy end now, the projected 2025 top four. These are the four teams I believe will be battling it out in the penultimate week of the season.
We begin with two sides that have been around the mark for the better part of a decade. These teams have been the benchmark, and each has defied the respective odds to lift the premiership cup; one in 2022, the other just last season. Both will be around the mark again, but each has a big question that may hinder their quest for another flag.
List Analysis Part Eight: Geelong and Brisbane.
GEELONG:
2025 Best 23:
B: Tom Stewart, Jack Henry, Jake Kolodjashnij
HB: Max Holmes, Mark Blicavs, Zach Guthrie
C: Ollie Dempsey, Bailey Smith, Shaun Mannagh
HF: Patrick Dangerfield, Jeremy Cameron, Ollie Henry
F: Tyson Stengle, Shannon Neale, Gryan Miers
RK: Sam De Koning, Tom Akins, Tanner Bruhn
INT: Lawson Humphries, Cam Guthrie, Brad Close, Jack Bowes, Jack Martin (sub)
ANALYSIS:
Every year we expect Geelong to finally fall off the perch, but like the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots, every year they somehow find a way to stay relevant and in contention. And here they are still, with one of the oldest teams in the competition, and they’ve regenerated their list so that they aren’t as reliant on those champion veterans as they once were.
The Cats have an embarrassment of riches in their tall defensive stocks, despite only having a handful on their list. You might think that’s contradictory, but remember that one of their prized big men found himself surprisingly squeezed out of the line-up at the end of last season, and has been earmarked for a different role in 2025.
And when you look at the two names that make up Geelong’s defensive mainstays, it’s not like they’ve got supreme height on their side either. Jake Kolodjashnij is the taller of the duo at 193cm, while Jack Henry is listed at 192cm. Still, both these players have deceptive strength to aid their cause, and their defensive craft makes it much easier to curb an opposition key forward. Connor O’Sullivan is the long-term replacement and could taste even more game time in 2025 after his solitary appearance in 2024.
Then there’s perhaps the most versatile player in the AFL, Mark Blicavs. A player who despite playing 270 games, still hasn’t found his absolute best spot. Equally effective as a hard-running wingman, mobile ruckman, and key defender, whether as an interceptor or blanketer, Blicavs is a diamond to coach Chris Scott, and while he will be utilised in a variety of roles when push comes to push, I think it will be in the backline where Blicavs will find himself more often than not.
Geelong’s rebounding defenders make up arguably the most talented group on the Cats’ list. Tom Stewart is in a league of his own, and there’s really nothing else I can say this isn’t just going over old ground. Instead, we’ll talk about the other players, all of whom are young and up-and-coming, and have big things set for their futures.
First, there’s Max Holmes, who is arguably the most important player in Geelong’s future. The reigning Best & Fairest, Holmes is the prototype of the modern footballer, and while he cut his teeth as a smooth-moving half-back, the midfield is where Holmes will eventually spend the majority of his time. Zach Guthrie is another who has come on in leaps and bounds and has become a vital component of Geelong’s defensive set-up. Seen as a bit of a token pick-up thanks to his brother, Guthrie went from a too-skinny kid to a tough-as-nails running machine.
Plucked from obscurity as a complete no-name, Lawson Humphries went from playing WAFL reserves to the big time, and in 11 senior appearances, showed a calmness well beyond his years, and proved that diamonds can be found where you least expect them. Humphries rise has been so swift, he has already cemented his spot in the Cats’ best 23. Irishman Oisin Mullen has shown some promising signs and looks like a player of the future, but he still needs time in the VFL to properly develop. Finally, there’s Jed Bews, who has been usurped by the young quartet we just mentioned, but he provides plenty of toughness and leadership whenever called upon.
If there’s any team that has proved that you don’t necessarily need a dominant ruckman to achieve success, it’s Geelong. Sure, they had Brad Ottens for their premiership successes in the late 2000s, but they’ve kept themselves around the mark since then, and it certainly hasn’t come off the back of dominant ruck play. They’ve had Rhys Stanley since 2015, but there’s always been this sense that Chris Scott would rather have someone, anyone, else in that role.
Which brings us to Sam De Koning. Seen as the next big thing behind the ball, in 2024 De Koning found himself in unfamiliar territory, either in the ruck or out of the team altogether. And as we’ve just mentioned, Geelong’s riches in key defence make De Koning obsolete in the backline. But the silver lining is that his niche might just be like his brother; as a dominant mobile ruckman. De Koning still has a lot of development to do in the ruck, but this could be the start of a career renaissance. Toby Conway is the other long-term solution and has some excellent potential, and Mitchell Edwards, Jacob Molier, and Joe Pike provide even longer-term cover.
On paper, the Cats seem to possess one of the deepest midfields in the competition. But a closer look indicates that while Geelong’s midfield does indeed run deep, they don’t seem to have the next wave of superstars coming through.
Because let’s face it. The fact that 34-year-old skipper Patrick Dangerfield is still as important as he is causes concern for Chris Scott and his team. I’m sure it is Geelong’s preference for Dangerfield to spend at least 65% of game time up forward, but there is a worry that without Dangerfield in the middle, the Cats’ other midfielders aren’t damaging enough.
Mitch Duncan is on his last legs, and many Cats’ fans are calling for him to hang up his boots, Cam Guthrie can’t get his body right, and just this week had surgery on his Achilles and Mark O’Connor does better when he’s tagging an opposition player out of the game.
Sure, they’ve also got some younger guns coming through, names like Tom Atkins, Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes, and Jhye Clark all showing that they can be the next wave, but none of them have fully stepped up to take the baton from Dangerfield. I will admit that they have shown some excellent signs, and on any given day each could be the best player on the ground, but they just don’t do it consistently enough. Rising Star winner Ollie Dempsey and mature-age recruit Shaun Mannagh have proven to be revelations in their wing roles, and there is hope that someday each of them can become just as effective inside ball winners as well, but that part of their games isn’t quite there yet.
And that’s what makes the recruitment of Bailey Smith so important. He can be everything this team needs. He can be the new leader of the Cats’ inside midfield, and he can combine with Dempsey and Mannagh to hurt the opposition with devastating outside run and carry. Names like Mitch Knevitt, George Stevens, Ted Clohesy, Xavier Ivisic, Patrick Retschko, and Cillian Burke are the longer-term prospects developing in the VFL.
Geelong has done well to prepare for life after their two big forwards, and now that one has retired, the future is now for a young gun. It was perhaps fortunate for the Cats that Tom Hawkins missed a large portion of the 2024 season because it allowed his replacement, Shannon Neale, to grab the reins and show his potential. In his third season, Neale kicked 23 goals from his 15 matches, which proved that with more experience under his belt, something he will now have, given he is the undisputed number two forward, he can become the 50-60 goals key forward that will lead the Cats into the future.
Geelong also has its replacement for Jeremy Cameron in 190cm Jay Polkinghorne. While 190cm doesn’t sound tall enough to be a key forward at AFL level, Polkinghorne is deceptive and plays well about his height. A very good set shot, Polkinghorne loves nothing more than flying for a mark and also has deceptive strength when in contested situations.
But the bulk of the pressure still rests on Cameron’s shoulders, and now that he has Neale to take more control of the deep forward 50, Cameron will now be able to venture further afield to use his speed and athleticism to turn his opponents in the wrong direction and sprint back to goal. If Neale can improve his tally to 35-40 goals, and Cameron can contribute his usual 60-plus, the Cats have most of the forward sorted.
In the absence of Hawkins, and with there still being a slight unknown about Neale, it is the quartet of small/medium forward stars that will have the biggest say on the Cats’ scoring power. And the beauty of these four is that each brings their unique strength, and they are all as important to Geelong’s forward line as the other.
Gryan Miers is the king of the score assist, and if there is a better player in the AFL who uses this strength as effectively as Miers, I have yet to find it. Ollie Henry is the third tall forward and uses his height and aerial strength brilliantly. Tyson Stengle’s biggest strength is his goal sense, and he is as tenacious as anyone when Cameron and Neale bring the ball to the ground. Rounding out the quartet is Brad Close, whose strength lies in his defensive prowess. But don’t let that fool you. Close is as good as anyone in taking a mark, and will regularly bob up with multiple vital goals.
Oliver Wiltshire and Keighton Matofai-Forbes, two relative no-names plucked late in consecutive drafts will have plenty of time to continue their development in the VFL, while Jack Martin should be considered the cherry on top of an already loaded forward half. If he can get his body working again, Martin could be a late-season spark when the stars need a rest before finals.
BRISBANE:
2025 Best 23:
B: Brandon Starcevich, Harris Andrews, Ryan Lester
HB: Dayne Zorko, Jack Payne, Keidean Coleman
C: Will Ashcroft, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage
HF: Callum Ah Chee, Eric Hipwood, Cam Rayner
F: Charlie Cameron, Logan Morris, Kai Lohmann
RK: Oscar McInerney, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale
INT: Zac Bailey, Tom Doedee, Levi Ashcroft, Jaspa Fletcher, Darcy Wilmot (sub)
ANALYSIS:
Honestly, how much is there to analyse about the team that strode their way to a 60-point Grand Final victory? A triumph they earned without arguably five of their best 23. They’ve enjoyed one of the deepest and most talented lists in the competition for the best part of a decade, and although they’ve been around the mark for years without saluting until last season, it seems that this team still has plenty more premiership assaults left in it.
In defence, they’re loaded. An Opening Round ACL injury to 2023 revelation Keidean Coleman was thought to be disastrous for the Lions, but no matter. Dayne Zorko was moved to half back, and he enjoyed a career-best season at age 35. Then it was Darcy Gardiner’s turn to feel the wrath of the football gods with his own ACL injury, and again the Lions regrouped and pressed on. Recruit Tom Doedee also went down with yet another injury, and his absence was swiftly dealt with.
They’ve got Harris Andrews and Jack Payne to handle the bigger bodies, Brandon Starcevich and Ryan Lester to control everything else, and Zorko and Coleman to rebound, with Darcy Wilmot to support them. This is a group so strong that Doedee has been demoted to the interchange bench, Gardiner has been omitted completely, alongside premiership players Noah Answerth and Conor McKenna, and they’ve got even more AFL experience on the sidelines in Bruce Reville, Shadeau Brain, James Madden and Darragh Joyce.
I could go on for days talking about this group, and there isn’t enough time to keep gushing on a group so talented and vast that you can’t even find holes in the future, and that includes the replacement for Andrews, with the Lions drafting Zane Zakostelsky, a player with the best surname in the league, to take over when the time is right.
In the Preliminary Final, Brisbane’s ruck depth was severely tested when Oscar McInerney went down with a twice-dislocated shoulder. This injury sealed the deal with many pundits, ruling that Brisbane could not win the premiership without their star ruckman. 35 gamer Darcy Fort was brought in as McInerney’s replacement, and he proved to us all that clubs don’t need to spend big on a ruckman, and that it’s so essential to have a ready-to-go big man in place, just in case the worse should happen.
No one was happier for Fort than McInerney, which is the mark of one of the best clubmen in the league. There is a slight concern over the long-term depth, as both McInerney and Fort are now past 30, and while both players still have a few good years left, the only other ruckman on the list is Henry Smith, who has shown promising signs in his four senior appearances, but Smith is also a forward, and isn’t quite ready to carry the load full time.
In the middle, once again, they’re loaded. Brownlows, Norm Smiths, and Best & Fairests are everywhere, not to mention those who would achieve the same success at another club. Leading the midfield is Lachie Neale, a man whose resume speaks for itself. Then there’s Hugh McCluggage, consistency personified. I’ve honestly never seen McCluggage play a bad game. He’s almost the second coming of Scott Pendlebury, and I predict that McCluggage will one day join Pendlebury in the 400 club. Jarrod Berry is the big body that can win his own ball, and take on defensive roles as needed.
Josh Dunkley made the journey to the Lions from the Dogs, a move reminiscent of Kevin Durant joining the Golden State Warriors, and his arrival made an already stacked midfield even better again. Then there are the two wunderkinds Brisbane nabbed thanks to past stars; Jaspa Fletcher, who can dominate through the middle but has had to bide his time thanks to the talent in front of him. And if that wasn’t enough, they were blessed with father-son pick Will Ashcroft, who became a household name, winning the Norm Smith Medal in just his second season, becoming the youngest player to do so, and achieving this after coming back from an ACL injury.
But wait, there’s still more, as Ashcroft’s brother Levi, who has been touted as the better brother of the two, also landed in Brisbane’s lap, and if pre-season is any indication, this could be one of the best first-year players seen in a very long time. Sam Marshall, who at any other club would be the main course, also arrived via Brisbane’s academy, arming the Lions with yet more midfield talent for the next 15 years. Deven Robertson is still around after unsuccessfully requesting a trade, and Reece Torrent, Luke Beecken, and James Tunstill are waiting in the wings hoping to break into the deepest midfield in the league.
Up forward, they’re once again loaded, but less than a week after the Grand Final, a gaping hole opened that the Lions chose not to fill. It’s an absence that will not only damage the forward line but also the middle of the ground when Oscar McInerney is resting. Maligned star Joe Daniher’s somewhat surprise retirement means that Brisbane is now so much more reliant on Eric Hipwood and Logan Morris to carry the load. Both have immense talent, but Hipwood hasn’t yet grabbed the number one forward role with both hands, only kicking 40 goals once in a season, and while Morris showed way more potential in his first season than anyone else thought, he’s still only a second-year player still learning his craft.
Darcy Fort fills the depth chart here too, but the choice not to replace Daniher surely means Brisbane’s hierarchy must have something big up their sleeve. Young bolter Ty Gallop has been earmarked as the solution, but asking a kid who is yet to debut to be the new centrepiece of a forward line is asking for trouble. The Lions have brought in Sam Day as ‘break glass in case of emergency’ insurance, have Brandon Ryan, who has shown glimpses, but not quite enough to inspire a great deal of confidence, and drafted Luke Lloyd for the longer term, but this is a team set up to win now, and losing Daniher, without a sustainable replacement leaves a hole I’m not certain the Lions can cover.
When I mentioned Brisbane’s forward line being loaded, it’s in the small brigade that the Lions are stacked. There’s former number one draft pick Cam Rayner, veteran goal kicker Charlie Cameron, cult hero Kai Lohmann, underrated star Callum Ah Chee, and forward-midfielder Zac Bailey. Cameron didn’t have his best year, and his best is now behind him, but I don’t see him having another down year, and Lohmann has now stepped up to fill the shoes of one of the best small forwards of his generation. Ah Chee is the quiet achiever of the bunch, and his work around goal and pushing higher up the ground is much underrated around the competition. Both Rayner and Bailey have shown glimpses of greatness, and both can be solid options floating through the midfield on occasions, but both still also drift in and out of games a little too much, and they’ve been in the system long enough that consistency shouldn’t be this much of an issue.
And just like the midfield, there’s even more talent on the sidelines, this time in the form of forgotten man Lincoln McCarthy. After injuring his ACL in Round 9, Kai Lohmann stepped up and filled the former Cat’s shoes, so much so that he’s unfortunately been squeezed out of the best 23 through no fault of his own. It’s a luxury that Chris Fagan is blessed with, as McCarthy has 151 games of experience under his belt, and he will be a handy inclusion whenever the need arises.
Like seemingly every other season, both Geelong and Brisbane will be around the mark in 2025. They’ve simply got too much talent not to be. But there are still questions surrounding certain areas of their game, and if these questions don’t get answered it might slightly derail plans for a premiership.
Can Geelong’s midfield stand up without relying too heavily on Patrick Dangerfield? Can Brisbane’s forward line cover the 58-goal hole left by Joe Daniher’s retirement? The pieces are there to answer these questions, but that’s on paper, and it could be a very different story when the whips are cracking in September.
MATT OMAN’S PROJECTED 2025 LADDER
1
2
3 Brisbane
4 Geelong
5 Sydney
6 Carlton
7 Hawthorn
8 Melbourne
9 Adelaide
10 Port Adelaide
11 Gold Coast
12 Collingwood
13 Western Bulldogs
14 North Melbourne
15 Essendon
16 West Coast
17 St Kilda
18 Richmond
