PART SIX: A POINT TO PROVE
We’ve made it into the much anticipated (projected) top eight. The best of the best. And here we have two teams on perhaps the complete opposite ends of the scale.
One of these teams was the surprise packet of the 2024 season and has become the talk of the AFL world, both positively and negatively. Vastly ahead of schedule, this dare-to-dream outfit has big things in its future, and suddenly that future looks a lot closer than first thought.
But the other has become one of the most disappointing teams this side of the COVID pandemic. They’ve lifted the trophy in the four years since that dreadful plague, but the feeling is that this list should’ve had far more success than it has, and if something doesn’t change soon, they will go down as one of the biggest wastes of talent in the history of the competition.
List Analysis Part Six: Melbourne and Hawthorn.
MELBOURNE:
2025 Best 23:
B: Judd McVee, Steven May, Jake Lever
HB: Christian Salem, Harrison Petty, Jake Bowey
C: Ed Langdon, Christian Petracca, Caleb Windsor
HF: Bayley Fritsch, Jacob van Rooyen, Trent Rivers
F: Kysaiah Pickett, Daniel Turner, Charlie Spargo
RK: Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney
INT: Tom Sparrow, Kade Chandler, Jake Melksham, Harvey Langford, Koltyn Tholstrup (sub)
ANALYSIS:
Where to for these Demons? A team with so much talent on the talent, but with just as much talent for trouble off the field. This is a list that should’ve given the club far more than just the one premiership trophy they currently have.
Even with such strong top-end talent, is the bottom about to fall out for the Demons? Is the off-field damage too much to repair? Are we about to see another potential exodus? These are questions that absolutely should be getting asked about this team, yet here we are, and the aforementioned queries are not only relevant, but they cast a major shadow over the coaching career of Simon Goodwin, the captaincy of Max Gawn, and the leadership of the entire administration.
Melbourne’s key defensive stocks look good on paper, but that could be because it’s always been the same two or three players featuring every week. Steven May and Jake Lever have formed one of the strongest defensive tag teams of their generation, and they know each other’s games so well they can each bring their own strengths, and cover for the other’s weaknesses.
On occasion, the Demons have relied on swingman Tom McDonald to plug a hole if the need arises, and he can go forward if the team needs someone to take a strong mark. The same can be said of Harrison Petty, who has switched back to familiarity after an underwhelming trial as a key forward. Simon Goodwin has given the clearest indication yet that Petty is back in defence full time, but he’ll have a hard time resisting the temptation to make the switch back to the forward line if Melbourne continues to struggle with scoring. Jed Adams is the rookie key back developing in the VFL and looks to be the replacement when retirements start to arrive.
It does leave Melbourne a little thin from a tall timber perspective, and when there’s a shortage, the Demons turn to Blake Howes and Marty Hore for cover. Both can play taller than their heights (Howes stands 191cm, Hore is 190cm) but it’s obvious both would prefer to play a rebounding/intercepting role because on the big gorilla forwards, both have been exposed for size a little too often to be a long term answer within a season.
Surprisingly, the Demons’ smaller defenders are vastly underrated, and if you’ve watched them as a collective, you’ll know just how talented and important each player is to the defensive setup. Young gun Judd McVee is the best of the bunch, and he has been earmarked for a role in the midfield should his development trajectory continue. McVee reads the play from behind the ball beautifully and uses his deceptive height to perfection. When he is fit, Christian Salem is one of the most damaging players in the competition by foot. Still, his questionable soft tissues have prevented us all from seeing his lethal kicking and running power enough. Jake Bowey’s debut season featured a flag, and he’s come back from a long-term injury to work his way back into the line-up. Finally, there’s Andy Moniz-Wakefield, who has shown tremendous potential to grow into a damaging back pocket despite playing just six games in last year’s debut season. However, Moniz-Wakefield heartbreakingly went down with a knee injury in the final moments of Melbourne’s scratch match, and the extent of the damage is unknown at the time of writing, although the club is bracing for a season-ending ACL rupture.
In the ruck, skipper Max Gawn has been the undisputed king of the centre square for the last decade. A seven-time All-Australian, two-time Best & Fairest, and a premiership captain, Gawn holds the monopoly over the ruck spot at the Demons, and so he should. His partnership with Luke Jackson got the Demons a premiership; his partnership with Brodie Grundy did not. With Gawn now past 30, Melbourne has brought a few players in as cover should Gawn go down with an injury (which he has this pre-season, although he shouldn’t miss any game time), with Tom Fullarton recruited last season, and journeyman Tom Campbell coming in this season. Campbell was strong against Tristan Xerri in the match sim, and looks determined to make perhaps his last stop on his AFL journey a good one. Will Verrall is the long-term replacement way down the line.
On paper, Melbourne’s midfield is the best in the competition. It’s that simple. I mean, let’s look at it, on paper. Christian Petracca is the prototype for the modern AFL footballer, his power and agility are elite. Clayton Oliver lives for the contest and can run on the outside and use his foot skills brilliantly. Jack Viney is this group’s heart and soul, and will never give less than 150% when approaching a contested ball. Ed Langdon will run up and down the wing literally all game long. Caleb Windsor’s debut season was magnificent, and he didn’t look out of place from the moment he arrived. Trent Rivers became the number one man when Petracca’s season ended prematurely. And if that’s not enough, Tom Sparrow and Jack Billings provide strong backup when needed, Taj Woewodin and Kynan Brown showed positive signs, and draftees Harvey Langford and Xavier Lindsay look ready to go from Round One.
But here’s the thing. Football games aren’t won on paper. Despite what his contract might suggest, Oliver was a shell of his former self in 2024, and consistent off-field issues have prevented him from reaching those lofty heights. Petracca still has massive question marks lingering around him, both on the field with his internal injuries, and off the field given how those internal injuries were handled by the club. Langdon’s disposal efficiency lets him down, and he doesn’t get the amount of ball on the outside like he used to. These are all big ifs, but if Petracca and Oliver can return to their match-winning best, if Langdon can tidy up his kicking skills, if Windsor and Rivers can continue their development, if Langford and Lindsay can show why they were taken so high in the draft, and if Viney can keep producing his brutal best, this midfield can fire again, But again, if.
Despite winning a premiership by 12 goals with roughly the same forward line, it’s obvious that the biggest weakness for the Demons is at key forward. Bayley Fritsch has been the pseudo full forward for the last four years, kicking 193 goals in that period (an average of 48 goals a season), but too often lately, he gets taken out of the game completely and has a habit of getting his goals during junk time. Melbourne has high hopes for Jacob van Rooyen and Daniel Turner, and while van Rooyen has all the tools to become a superstar key forward in this league, Turner has shown glimpses, but he needs to hit the scoreboard more often to take that next step in his career (and I’m sure that will come with more games under his belt). On the outside looking in, Matthew Jefferson and mature-age Aidan Johnson are the VFL-level rookies still refining their craft.
In the absence of goals from the key forwards, Melbourne has had to rely more heavily on its mosquito fleet, and two players in particular stood up in key moments during the season. Kysaiah Pickett has been supremely consistent over the last four seasons, with 154 goals (an average of 38 per season), and the Demons have long earmarked him for a more permanent midfield role if his fitness can improve just a little more. Kade Chandler had another good year after a career-best 2023, playing every game, and juggling midfield time with his usual high half-forward role.
Koltyn Tholstrup showed some excellent signs, and despite only kicking five goals from his 10 senior appearances, his aggression and power around the contest reminds me of a young Christian Petracca. Charlie Spargo is the forgotten man and is a walk-up starter if he can get his body right. Shane McAdam was recruited to play a bigger role than he eventually did. In the worst possible scenario, a ruptured Achilles means that McAdam is likely to spend most, if not all of the season sitting on the sidelines.
HAWTHORN:
2025 Best 23:
B: Jarman Impey, Sam Frost, Josh Battle
HB: Blake Hardwick, Tom Barrass, Jack Scrimshaw
C: Josh Weddle, James Worpel, Massimo D’Ambrosio
HF: Dylan Moore, Mabior Chol, Connor Macdonald
F: James Sicily, Calsher Dear, Nick Watson
RK: Lloyd Meek, Will Day, Jai Newcombe
INT: Jack Ginnivan, Conor Nash, Karl Amon, Cam Mackenzie, Luke Breust (sub)
ANALYSIS:
This analysis would’ve looked a lot different twelve months ago. This was a team still rebuilding, and I’m sure many Hawthorn supporters predicted another tough season ahead.
But after starting 0-5, and getting belted by the Swans, the Hawks made the most improbable finals charge, taking the AFL world by storm on their way to a semi-final appearance. You either love these Hawks and their antics, or you can’t stand it, and pray for their downfall. But for all those praying for Hawthorn’s demise, it seems that it won’t happen for a very long time. They’re still so young and have added significant pieces to enhance their talent and versatility.
That word, versatility, directly applies to Hawthorn’s defence. This was a group that could play anywhere, at any moment, and that made life a nightmare for opposition coaches. Skipper James Sicily is the best of the bunch, and while he has earned an All-Australian jacket as a medium intercepting defender who can shut down the best key forward, the new additions mean that Sicily may be best fitted to the new look Hawks forward line. But in Tom Barrass and Josh Battle, Hawthorn finds the missing pieces of their premiership puzzle. Barrass will be the main shutdown player, sharing the duties with the often underrated and now supremely important Sam Frost. Battle is the tall interceptor, who will form a devastating partnership with much improved Jack Scrimshaw. Depth key defenders include Will McCabe, James Blanck and Jai Serong, all of which face an uphill battle breaking into this defence.
Then there are the small defenders, and there’s more versatility here too. Blake Hardwick proved he can be an effective forward, but is equally, if not more at home shutting down small forwards and using his lethal field kicking to carve through an opponent’s walls. Jarman Impey is equally capable of shutting down an opposition’s best small forward as he is taking off a blistering run, and his kicking skills are a feature of his game.
Run and bounce also describes Changkuoth Jiath to a tee. Granted, Jiath has had to deal with more than his fair share of soft tissue injuries, but when he’s up and going, few players possess his enthusiasm and dare. And if you’re looking for enthusiasm and dare, look no further than Josh Weddle, a man who reads the play brilliantly and loves nothing more than getting up the ground, using his size and deceptive speed to full advantage. Depth is less of a concern than it once was as well, with Bailey MacDonald, Seamus Mitchell, and Bodie Ryan all waiting in the wings, and all still have a lot of development to come as they bide their time in the reserves.
When the Hawks traded away midfield star Jaeger O’Meara to Fremantle, freeing up his salary, they received Lloyd Meek in return as the steak knives part of the deal. Meek sat behind improving big man Ned Reeves, until he got his chance to cement himself as the clear number one ruck. It’s a chance he took with both hands and now Hawthorn has a somewhat unlikely star on its hands. Proving once again that you don’t need to spend big dollars and big draft picks to land a quality ruckman, Meek’s ruck work and physical presence around the groundwork wonders for Sam Mitchell’s midfield brigade. Reeves is still around as the backup, but he is the clear number two, and will only play when Meek is injured or needs a rest.
Another recent explosion in talent and output happened in the middle of the ground too, where the Hawks went from a few nice pieces without any real star power, to a bunch of warriors all building legendary careers together. It isn’t easy to know where to begin here, as Hawthorn seems to have every base loaded.
The grace of Will Day. The leadership of Jai Newcombe. The precision of Massimo D’Ambrosio. The grunt of James Worpel. The toughness of Conor Nash. The calmness of Karl Amon. The precociousness of Cam Mackenzie. The defence of Finn Maginness.
It’s all there, clear as crystal. Whatever you need from the Hawks’ midfield, they can provide in spades. They’ve all come a long way since Sam Mitchell took over, and all have proven that although it took a little longer than some of their contemporaries, this is a group that doesn’t rely on one superstar to carry them. They’ve all got multiple strings to their bow, and whenever one soldier goes down, another one steps into the shoes without skipping a beat, as shown in the 2024 finals series when Josh Ward took his chance with the ill-timed Will Day injury. Harry Morrison can also float through the middle of the ground and turn a game if need be, and they’ve got Henry Hustwaite waiting in the wings for his opportunity as well.
If there’s one area of Hawthorn’s list that still has question marks, it’s in its tall forward stocks. I’ll start this by saying that when he’s fit, Mitch Lewis is the unquestioned number-one target in this team. The problem is that not only will Lewis be sidelined for most of 2025 (this being the reason I haven’t included him in Hawthorn’s best 23), but he has also never played more than 15 games in a season in his seven years in the AFL, and out of a possible 159 matches, Lewis has only managed 70. Lewis must get his body right because the Hawks look a better outfit when he is on the park.
In Lewis’ absence, the Hawks had to rely on an unlikely trio to get the job done, and in a complete surprise to us all, they each performed much higher than expected. Starting with recruit Mabior Chol, a player no one would’ve suspected would lead the Hawks goal kicking, with a respectable 36 majors. Then there’s the returning Jack Gunston, who not only played more game time than expected, he also provided excellent mentorship to those around him.
But if we’re talking about performing much better than expected, we have to talk about the man who benefitted most from Gunston’s tutelage. Simply put, no one at Hawthorn improved more than Calsher Dear, a player considered a token father-son selection upon his drafting. Bursting onto the scene and never looking back, the still-raw Dear kicked 25 goals from his 18 games, and looked right at home as a high-leaping, pack-crashing key forward that you could build a team around. Max Ramsden and Jasper Scaife are long-term projects still developing, and will likely only be used sparingly next season. Dear will miss until at least Gather Round with a stress fracture in his back, and while he is recuperating, Ramsden is the natural next man up.
What worked in the tall trio’s favour was the mosquito fleet of talent at their feet. But in Dylan Moore, Nick Watson, Connor Macdonald, and Jack Ginnivan, the Hawks possess an overwhelming army of small forwards capable of tearing any game to shreds and breaking opposition hearts and minds with their talent and antics. All of Hawthorn’s players have bought into this style, but it’s these aforementioned young guns that started the Hokball trend, and it is showing no signs of slowing down. Luke Breust, like his great mate Gunston, is still around for support, both on the field and off, and has found his niche playing as a regular super sub, and Sam Butler is still working his way back from a devastating leg injury.
It’s now or never for the Demons. To put up, or shut up. To prove that this club can still be an on-field force, despite all the off-field woes leading us all to believe the contrary. You can argue that there are other clubs in the same ‘now or never’ boat, and maybe I’m looking at this list with rose-tinted glasses, but I firmly believe Melbourne has one more big effort to give. The pieces are all still there, and if each can return to their 2020-2021 form, the sky is still the limit.
As for the Hawks, this is (hopefully) the start of something wonderful. Of a new era of sustained success. But they need to be wary of avoiding the second-year blues. Just because everything went right for Hawthorn in 2024, does not mean this will just roll on into 2025. They are still a work in progress, and while they have all the pieces on the list, those pieces haven’t yet fully developed, and we should be careful about placing too much pressure on the young guns before they’re fully ready for it.
MATT OMAN’S PROJECTED 2025 LADDER
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 Hawthorn
8 Melbourne
9 Adelaide
10 Port Adelaide
11 Gold Coast
12 Collingwood
13 Western Bulldogs
14 North Melbourne
15 Essendon
16 West Coast
17 St Kilda
18 Richmond
