PART FIVE: UNDER PRESSURE IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA
I promise I didn’t plan this. But here we are, the final two teams of the (potential) bottom ten, and it just so happens that both teams come from the wonderful state of South Australia (seriously, it’s bloody wonderful over here, come join us).
Both Ken Hinkley and Matthew Nicks are under immense pressure to guide their teams back to success. Port fans want nothing more than a premiership, as is their philosophy, while Crows supporters just want their team to be September relevant again, after six seasons in the wilderness.
List Analysis Part Five, Port Adelaide and Adelaide.
PORT ADELAIDE:
2025 Best 23:
B: Darcy Byrne-Jones, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Logan Evans
HB: Kane Farrell, Aliir Aliir, Miles Bergman
C: Ollie Wines, Willem Drew, Jase Burgoyne
HF: Jason Horne-Francis, Ollie Lord, Sam Powell-Pepper
F: Willie Rioli, Mitch Georgiades, Jack Lukosius
RK: Jordon Sweet, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters
INT: Travis Boak, Jed McEntee, Joe Richards, Ryan Burton, Jackson Mead (sub)
ANALYSIS:
To say that Ken Hinkley’s job was under pressure would be like saying that Fruit Loops are a “little” unhealthy. But now, there’s change afoot. Port, and Hinkley himself, have decided to get out in front of the piranhas before they can bite, announcing a coaching succession plan that will see Josh Carr take over in 2026.
Simply put, no one is under more pressure to succeed than Hinkley, now the longest-tenured coach without a Grand Final appearance. He’s always managed to get the best out of his players in the home-and-away season, but as soon as finals hit, the Power doesn’t seem to be able to hang with the big boys. Another year without lifting the trophy, or even coming close, and Ken would have been out of a job, succession plan, or not.
It’s not exactly a secret that Port has a key defensive issue. That problem was never more evident when they asked Trent McKenzie to play as an undersized full-back. In trying to solve the problem, the Power went on a recruiting spree, first luring Aliir Aliir from Sydney, then after realising that just one puzzle piece wasn’t going to be enough, brought in Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Esava Ratugolea.
Aliir has been fantastic since joining the Power, and Zerk-Thatcher performed beyond what the average punter thought capable, but Ratugolea has been moved around the field too much to suggest that he will ever make a key defensive spot his own. The Power knows that they need to find young talent to eventually replace Aliir and Zerk-Thatcher in the best 23, so they drafted Jacob Moss and Xavier Walsh, but they still have a lot of developing to do. Both Zerk-Thatcher and Ratugolea are likely to miss the early rounds of the season, which will test Port’s already thin key-defensive stocks.
In losing Dan Houston to Collingwood, Port now has a Grand Canyon-sized hold it needs to fill on its half-back line. Sure, they’ve got some nice pieces, but none have shown that superstar quality that Houston possessed. The name that I’ve seen batted around most is Logan Evans, who was nothing short of a revelation in his debut season. Other players who can step up include Miles Bergman, who also has midfield qualities, Kane Farrell and his lethal feet; Darcy Byrne-Jones, who can play forward when needed, and Josh Sinn, who just needs his body to play ball. Ryan Burton has plenty of experience, Dylan Williams provides reliable and handy depth, and while everyone likes to throw dirt onto Lachie Jones, I think it’s important to remember that his game is still developing, even though he is entering his fifth season at the top level.
When Scott Lycett retired, Port brought in career backup rucks Jordon Sweet and Ivan Soldo to fill the void. It started as a full-fledged competition between the two, and it appeared that neither had the upper hand. Soldo started the season as the first choice, but by the end, Sweet had taken over, and honestly, he has become one of the most underrated big men in the league. It’s clear that Soldo doesn’t want to be the second stringer, given he came to Alberton thinking the starting ruck spot was his, and when it became clear it wasn’t, he requested a trade back to Victoria. But that fire can burn him to wrestle the post back, and he is still a good depth player when required. Dante Visentini is the long-term prospect who will continue to develop, but he is almost ready-made and has just about become too good for the level below.
Port Adelaide’s frontline midfield is one of the best in the competition. In any other team, stars like Ollie Wines and Travis Boak would still command a place in the opening centre bounce. But powerful trio Connor Rozee, Willem Drew, and my man Zak Butters have taken full control of the middle of the ground. Rozee and Butters are the superstars, the leaders, and the driving force pushing Port towards the mountaintop. But don’t sleep on Willem Drew. Supremely underrated, Drew always does what is best for the team and is ever reliable as either an inside bull or a defensive tagger.
But Boak and Wines, despite being past their best, still have a role to play. While one plays on the wing, the other will be resting forward or on the bench, and they can still be called upon to play fully on the ball, using their experience and grunt to full effect. Jase Burgoyne took his game to another level as the team’s first-choice wingman, and at 21 years old, there’s every chance he could improve again. In terms of midfield depth, Will Lorenz and Jackson Mead showed some good signs and ultimate steak knife Rory Atkins has experience at two AFL clubs, and there are a few SANFL-level talents that will continue to grow. Tom Cochrane, Hugh Jackson, Benny Barrett, and Christian Moraes will keep plying their trade in the level below and may get an opportunity later in the season.
Then there’s Kane Cornes’ favourite player, Jason Horne-Francis. You’ll notice that I have placed Horne-Francis on the half-forward line in Port’s best 23, and that’s for several reasons. First, thanks to some retirements and injuries, Port has more of a need for Horne-Francis’ power in the forward line than in the midfield. Second, Horne-Francis is likely to still spend around 40% of game time floating through the midfield when the Rozee/Butters/Drew trio needs a break. And let’s also not forget that this version of Horne-Francis is still not 100% of what he is capable of.
While Port’s key defensive problems have largely been resolved, the same simply cannot be said for the other end of the ground. Charlie Dixon is retired (although to still be reliant on him for as long as they were was worrying), and Todd Marshall’s year ended before it began with an Achilles tear. Mitch Georgiades became the go-to guy in the forward half last season with a team-best 44 majors, but he will need to shoulder the load a little more without Dixon and Marshall alongside him. Ollie Lord is ready to take Dixon’s place in the starting line-up as the team’s second tall forward and backup ruckman, and Jeremy Finlayson can also be called upon to fill that spot, although it’s time for the rest of the forward line to move on without him. Jack Whitlock was drafted to be the longest-term replacement, and I suspect it will be at least a couple of seasons before we get a glimpse of him at the top level.
But in all of that, it’s a recruit coming in with a sketchy reputation that I am quite excited about. Let’s be honest, Jack Lukosius hasn’t quite lived up to the lofty standards placed on him by his draft position (just ask our resident Gold Coast nuffie Brett Hodgson). But is that more because Gold Coast refused to play him in his best position for the longest time, and wouldn’t leave him there when they did? Lukosius kicked a career-best 39 goals in 2023, and that includes the weeks at the start of the season when he was still at half-back. Lukosius as a key forward works. And if Hinkley and his team persist with him in the forward line, he is capable of a 50+ goal return.
Port is likely to go into most games with a taller-than-average forward setup, and that doesn’t even include the minutes Horne-Francis will spend in the arc. Sam Powell-Pepper will be a virtual recruit this season after missing the first four games through suspension before rupturing his ACL in Round 8. The Power will welcome back his grunt and (hopefully) controlled aggression around the ball in the forward half, and it allows Horne-Francis to spend more time up the ground.
Willie Rioli is the go-to crafty crumber and will need to contribute 30+ goals for the Power to make it far into the season, and Joe Richards was recruited on a much longer deal than any of us thought he’d get, indicating that the Power sees big things in Richards’ future. Jed McEntee has a role to play whenever the team needs a forward-half tagger, while Tom Anastasopoulos, Lachlan Charleson, and draftee Joe Berry will develop in the SANFL, although Berry could earn a debut sooner rather than later.
ADELAIDE:
2025 Best 23:
B: Josh Worrell, Nick Murray, Max Michalanney
HB: Mitch Hinge, Mark Keane, Isaac Cumming
C: Jake Soligo, James Peatling, Lachlan Sholl
HF: Alex Neal-Bullen, Riley Thilthorpe, Ben Keays
F: Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty, Josh Rachele
RK: Reilly O’Brien, Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine
INT: Wayne Milera, Daniel Curtin, Sid Draper, Luke Nankervis, Billy Dowling (sub)
ANALYSIS:
If history teaches us anything, it’s that we should never count our chickens before they hatch. This was the story for the 2024 Adelaide Crows. Many pundits, myself included, had the Crows making the jump into finals, and some, again myself included, foresaw a meteoric rise into the top four.
But the Crows’ season simply never got off the ground. Injuries came at the wrong time, veterans who had produced seasons of excellence fell off a cliff, too much was left to too few, and the seat under Matthew Nicks’ backside became a raging inferno. Their off-season acquisitions indicate a team that is ready to win now, but if we take a deeper look at the list, will this expectation prove too big a mountain to climb?
I’ve spoken before about Adelaide’s key defenders, and while they’re still a quartet of solid contributors, there are concerns that the Crows lack that one true diamond in a sea of good-looking pebbles. Nick Murray is the number one man, and on his best day can mix it with the best key forwards, but I think I can say with enough respect that there are unlikely to be many All-Australian jackets hanging up in his closet anytime soon. Mark Keane is the same. A strong, reliable role-player, but when compared with other key defenders around the league, it’s like comparing apples to oranges.
The other two names, Jordon Butts, are on the periphery for very different reasons. Butts is still only 25, but injuries have plagued him at every turn. He could be anything, and in just his third game he showed some of that potential in blanketing future hall of famer Tom Hawkins, but persistent foot and leg injuries have meant that we simply haven’t seen his best for long enough, and both Murray and Keane have gone past him in the pecking order. James Borlase is an adequate replacement player, but if the Crows need to pull him up from the level below, it shows a major lack of depth.
Having said that, the rebounders around the key pillars are strong and deep. Even at 195cm, Josh Worrell is equally as capable of playing on resting ruckman as he is the mosquito fleets, and his intercepting work combined with supreme ball use makes him a vital cog in Adelaide’s backline. Copy and paste everything when referring to Max Michalanney. Such is Michalanney’s talent; he was able to fit into a defence like a glove straight away, and there are growing calls to transform the 190cm wunderkind into a game-breaking midfielder.
In Mitch Hinge, Adelaide has a future captain on its hands. Underrated but reliable, Hinge missed just one match in 2024 and averaged 22 disposals, but you wouldn’t know it given the lack of spotlight shone on a player that deserves more recognition. Rounding out the backline is recruit Isaac Cumming, who came to South Australia in search of more opportunities, which is something he will most certainly receive at the Crows. Cumming is also capable of playing through the midfield, and the Crows are desperate for more players of his type; smooth-moving, versatile ball winners with size and excellent foot skills.
In putting this team together, I have left injury-prone Wayne Milera, inexperienced Luke Nankervis, and I don’t know where he best plays Daniel Curtin out of the starting 18, and I cut Brayden Cook, Chayce Jones and Brodie Smith from the 23. All of these players have somewhat proven they can hold down a post if called upon, but a mixture of inexperience, lack of talent, and old-man syndrome means that they are down the pecking order when compared to the six I mentioned previously.
Maybe I’m looking at things from afar, but I don’t understand the hatred that Crows fans have for number one ruck Reilly O’Brien. Sure, there are more than a few ruckmen around the league that are better than he, but O’Brien has held his own since taking over from Sam Jacobs, and he is going to need to, because the only other full-time ruck on the list is perennial back up Kieran Strachan. Strachan was given a go in 2024, but he didn’t grab the opportunity and was sent back to the reserves. O’Brien and Strachan represent the notion that clubs don’t need to spend big dollars on a big-name ruckman, but there are whispers the Crows might be trying to lure a big name with an even bigger mullet back to South Australia, and those rumours will only intensify if Adelaide’s ruck division lets itself down.
Turning our attention to the middle of the ground, and it’s here that the Crows have tried to fill their biggest hole, if you can call it a hole. In Rory Sloane, Matt Crouch, and Rory Laird, Adelaide was armed with three of the same player. Tough, not very tall, contested ball winners, but slower than the average wet July. Sloane has since retired, and the feeling is that the Crows need to fully move away from Crouch and Laird and inject their midfield with a serious dose of size and speed.
Steps have already been made to achieve this, with the additions of Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine in consecutive off-seasons. Dawson brings the size and leadership the Crows have been lacking, and it’s very clear the team walks taller when he’s on the field. But it’s Rankine that excites Crows fans the most, and while he has proven himself as a lethal small forward, it was his move into the midfield last season that showed just how effective a player he can be. When Rankine went down with a serious hamstring injury early in the season, Adelaide’s midfield suffered, and his full-time move into the centre square will give the Crows the speed their midfield so desperately needs. I also firmly expect recruit James Peatling to be a revelation, and his presence gives the Crows a defensive tackling weapon that allows the aforementioned Dawson and Rankine to do their best work unimpeded.
With all of that said, and if Adelaide’s midfield wasn’t rejuvenated enough, which it now comfortably is, there’s the small matter of perhaps the most talented player this club has ever drafted. Sure, there’s the likes of Riley Thilthorpe in the forward line, and Max Michalanney in defence, but in Sid Draper, the Crows can rest easy knowing that both their short and long-term futures are in the safest of hands. This kid is likely to feature straight away, and it won’t be long before we’re talking about Draper in the upper, upper echelon of players.
On the outside, they’ve got Lachie Sholl and Jake Soligo, two players that add serious damage when at their best, and their depth includes Billy Dowling, Luke Pedlar, Zac Taylor, Sam Berry, Harry Schoenberg, Hugh Bond, Charlie Edwards, and Oscar Ryan. Dowling, Pedlar, and Taylor have shown the most potential and will lead this Crows midfield into the next phase of greatness. Edwards and Ryan haven’t tasted a debut but have shown glimpses at SANFL level, Bond got a taste but needs more time to develop, and while Berry and Schoenberg have the most experience, neither have grabbed the opportunity with both hands, and their lack of pace hurts them at AFL level.
For too long, the Crows have relied on Taylor Walker to kick them a score. Yes, Walker had his best season in 2023, but now, at 34 years old, Father Time has caught up with Adelaide’s greatest-ever goal kicker, and the time has come for the two young stars to finally grab the torch from the Texan. Darcy Fogarty took his game to another level in 2024 with a career-best 41 goals, but he will need to improve that to the 50-60 goal range if the Crows are to make the climb up the ladder.
Fogarty’s partner in crime, Riley Thilthorpe, has all the tools to be one of the best key forwards of his generation, but injuries have hampered his progression. It can be argued that Thilthorpe’s best game came in his debut, and while he has been asked to shoulder the load as the team’s backup ruckman, the fact remains that so far, Thilthorpe’s AFL career has slightly underwhelmed. Chris Burgess provides experience whenever he is required, and young guns Tyler Welsh and Toby Murray will be given plenty of time to develop at state-league level.
In terms of the mosquito fleet, the Crows have more than enough talent to sustain their forward line, and there is hope that a select few can bring their talents further afield. We’ve already spoken of Rankine, who now needs to be considered a midfielder first, but his offsider Josh Rachele is the exact opposite; a player we think of as a forward, who can spend selective minutes helping out in the trenches. It’s an important season for Rachele, who needs to prove all the doubters, whether inside the four walls or out, that he can be a force in Adelaide’s front half.
Co-reigning Best & Fairest Ben Keays has been the surprise packet of Adelaide’s last two seasons and shows that you can find diamonds in the delisted free agent pool, and recruit Alex Neal-Bullen may surprise fans with his immediate importance to the Crows’ fortunes, able to play both forward and midfield, although I’d say it’ll be forward where he’ll spend most of his time, given the lack of experience around him. Luke Pedlar and Lachlan Murphy provide adequate depth, but neither has shown enough to suggest they should be playing regularly.
Since the announcement of Port’s succession plan, Matthew Nicks has now become the most under-pressure coach in the league. Produce another season like the one the Crows had in 2024, and Nicks is out of a job. It’s that simple.
But it’s not like Port isn’t still under pressure either. This club, in its own words, exists to win premierships. And it’s now been over 20 years since they’ve achieved this feat, which according to them, is 20 years too long.
Both of these teams have the talent to be better than they’ve shown, and if they don’t start improving on past results, heads will roll. And I’m not just talking about Nicks and Hinkley.
MATT OMAN’S PROJECTED 2025 LADDER
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 Adelaide
10 Port Adelaide
11 Gold Coast
12 Collingwood
13 Western Bulldogs
14 North Melbourne
15 Essendon
16 West Coast
17 St Kilda
18 Richmond
