2025 LIST ANALYSIS AND BEST 23
Now that every means by which AFL clubs can build their lists has been completed, it’s time we at the Mongrel take a deep dive into every playing squad heading into an intriguing 2025 season.
Many players changed their jumpers in the off-season, some hung them in their lockers for the last time, and others will be pulling an AFL jumper on for the first time. It has left us with many interesting questions as we look towards Round One (or Zero, if you’d prefer). Whose best 23 is the best? Who will struggle with depth the most? Which teams will rise, and which will fall?
We will attempt to answer all these questions and many more in this series.
As we move through the clubs, in groups of two, you will also start to get a picture of my predicted ladder for next year. This will cause plenty of debate I’m sure, especially when we move towards the pointy end, but for now we will begin at the other end, The Bottom Two.
RICHMOND:
2025 Best 23:
B: Nathan Broad, Ben Miller, Josh Gibcus
HB: Nick Vlastuin, Noah Balta, Jayden Short
C: Hugo Ralphsmith, Jacob Hopper, Kamdyn McIntosh
HF: Jack Ross, Tom Lynch, Maurice Rioli Jr
F: Rhyan Mansell, Mykelti Lefau, Seth Campbell
RK: Toby Nankervis, Tim Taranto, Dion Prestia
INT: Sam Lalor, Josh Smillie, Jacob Bauer, Tom Brown, James Trezise (sub)
ANALYSIS:
Buckle up, Tiger fans. After three flags in four seasons, the freefall is complete, the rebuild has been undertaken, and the pain has only just begun. Adem Yze needs to be given time, and plenty of it, to pull this team from the canvas, because the list at his disposal rivals the Eagles when they were at their lowest ebb.
You might think that Yze’s biggest issue is the lack of experience in his locker room, but that simply isn’t true. What is a problem, is that the veterans on his list have largely struggled to stay healthy.
In defence, they’ve got a diamond in the form of Josh Gibcus, but after a breakout 17-game debut 2022 season, he’s only managed to get on the park on three occasions since then. Gibcus is undoubtedly in Richmond’s best 23, but the massive asterisk next to that is his injury history, and his current fitness. Their other tall defenders are Noah Balta and Ben Miller. Balta is one of Yze’s most important players going forward, so much so that I didn’t know where to place him; forward or defence. More on that later.
Miller is somewhat underrated, and if Balta and Gibcus are alongside him for the majority of the season, the pressure on him is greatly reduced. With Dylan Grimes now retired, the need for Balta to play forward at times, and the injury history Gibcus has already covered, Miller has quickly become a vital cog in the Tigers’ backline setup. In terms of depth, Jacob Blight and Tylar Young have shown promise, and at 26, Young has shown he is as ready-made as any to step in if Gibcus’ injury history continues to haunt him.
Around the three talls is where the Tigers are the most stable. Nick Vlastuin, Jayden Short, and Nathan Broad are all durable, composed, and consistent. And it’s these stable pillars that I think make Richmond’s backline the strongest position on its list. We keep talking about Vlastuin as a future captain, and while that will likely only be for a year or two before the next long-term skipper emerges, we mustn’t discount the leadership that all three of these backline warriors bring to the club.
Each has a role that they perform wonderfully. Short is the precision-kicking rebounder; Broad is the third tall interceptor, and Vlastuin is the everyman that solves all problems, whether it’s locking down a small forward or kick-starting an attack from half-back. Depth is a slight concern, with Kaleb Smith, Tom Brown, and James Trezise still a little young and underdeveloped to step up for a full season.
On paper, Richmond’s midfield boasts by far the most experience and talent of all the positions, but again, injuries have all but killed any trust you can have in them. I’ve named Dion Prestia, Jacob Hopper, and Tim Taranto in the starting midfield spots, but can you really trust that they’ll all play on any given weekend? Prestia’s soft tissues are as strong as a wet newspaper and Jacob Hopper has also struggled to stay fit. I’ve placed Hugo Ralphsmith and Kamdyn McIntosh on the two wings, but these spots are as up for grabs as any on the field. Young depth here includes Sam Banks, Thomson Dow, Tyler Sonsie, and Kane McAuliffe. But aside from Dow, who has 30-odd matches to his name, this group also needs as much time on the field as humanly possible to fast-track development.
I suppose the decision to play Tim Taranto forward should be added to the mix. He is a goal-kicker by nature, and the Tigers will likely need a strong body up forward. How this impacts the midfield mix will be an interesting watch over the match sims this coming weekend, and the AAMI Series the week after. This may become even more important with the club-imposed suspension of Noah Balta sitting him for the first month of the year.
Evergreen skipper Toby Nankervis remains the club’s overwhelming first-choice ruckman, but after the retirement of Sam Naismith, depth is wafer thin. Samson Ryan has shown some positive signs, but the club also views him as a part-time forward, and given the Tigers’ key forward stocks, I’m sure Yze would prefer to keep Ryan developing his forward craft.
Looking past Ryan, Category-B rookies Ollie Hayes-Brown and Mate Colina are the only other options, and I fear that if both Nankervis and Ryan go down, Yze would instead turn to a key defender or forward rather than expose Hayes-Brown and Colina far earlier than they should. Nankervis is still just 30 years old and would seem to still have a bit left in the tank, but his bash-and-crash style of ruckwork means that his body has taken a beating, and he might be a player who breaks down quicker than he should.
The reason I tossed and turned about where to place Noah Balta is because Richmond’s key forwards stocks are as physically reliable as a broken-down Lotus (Some say it stands for Lots of Trouble, Usually Serious). The two targets I’ve put here are both on the injury list, but I must say that both have immense talent. Tom Lynch is on the wrong side of 30, and his broken body can only hold up for so much longer. In his absence, Mykelti Lefau was forced to step up a little earlier than the development coaches would’ve liked, and he showed plenty of good signs before succumbing to a heartbreaking ACL injury. If both players are fit, they both play, leaving Balta to focus on his defensive game, which the Tigers will hope happens, because depth is a huge concern. Jacob Bauer, Liam Fawcett, and Campbell Gray aren’t ready yet and Jacob Koschitzke isn’t quite good enough.
Jack Ross, Maurice Rioli Jr, Rhyan Mansell, and Seth Campbell are the first choice small forward brigade, with Judson Clarke and Steely Green filling the once-again inexperienced depth chart. Ross is by far the most experienced of the bunch, and it feels like he is getting close to hitting his peak (which is nothing to be sniffed at, to be fair), but the others just haven’t had enough time in the system to make a true impact on this team. It will come, and I really like the look of Campbell and Rioli Jr in particular, but small forward is arguably the most difficult position to play in a middling, rebuilding team, so progress may be a little slow for a couple of seasons yet.
All of that paints a disastrously bleak picture, but there is one giant silver lining: the 2024 National Draft. In offloading as many of their prime stars as they did, Richmond armed itself with one of the best hands seen in years. Eight of the first 27 picks went to the Tigers, and with those selections, they drafted seven top-end players and traded pick 27 to North Melbourne for a future first-round selection.
Richmond rejuvenated its midfield with Sam Lalor and Josh Smillie, upgraded their key position stocks with forwards Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong, and Thomas Sims, along with defender Luke Trainor, and boosted their small forward brigade with Taj Hotton. I expect both Lalor and Smillie to feature very early and often in 2025, given the lack of depth behind the three mainstays, and Hotton will get his chances at senior level as well, but the four talls will take time to develop, although injury histories may mean we see a debut for one of the forwards earlier than we expect.
The silver lining will certainly give Richmond and its supporters plenty of hope for the future, but we’re not in the future just yet. This is a list that still has plenty more pain to be felt, and unfortunately, the once powerful Tigers look set for at least another year rooted to the foot of the table.
ST KILDA:
2025 Best 23:
B: Hunter Clark, Dougal Howard, Callum Wilkie
HB: Bradley Hill, Zaine Cordy, Marcus Windhager
C: Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Jack Steele, Mason Wood
HF: Mattaes Phillipou, Cooper Sharman, Dan Butler
F: Mitch Owens, Max King, Jack Higgins
RK: Rowan Marshall, Jack Macrae, Jack Sinclair
INT: Paddy Dow, Darcy Wilson, Liam Henry, Tobie Travaglia, Liam Stocker (sub)
ANALYSIS:
This time last year, St Kilda supporters were on the verge of riding high. 2023 went much better than expected, and many pundits (myself included) figured that the upward trajectory would only continue. However, 2024 was a slip-up that some saw coming, as once again the Saints struggled to give themselves enough goal-scoring opportunities, and ultimately they failed to make the finals with an 11-12 record.
But that’s largely been the story of 21st-century St Kilda. Aside from the glory years of 2008-2010, the Saints always seem to be in the same position. Not good enough to seriously challenge the best sides, yet not bad enough to completely fall away and grab the best kid in the draft.
St Kilda’s defence is solid yet unspectacular, and undoubtedly their biggest asset, Callum Wilkie, still somewhat flies under the radar despite being rewarded with an All-Australian blazer. Wilkie takes the opposition’s best forward, with Dougal Howard and Zaine Cordy also matching up on the big forwards. These three key defenders might not seem all that imposing on paper, but when fully fit, all have a pivotal role to play. The Saints will struggle with depth in this area, having lost Josh Battle in free agency, and only youngsters Isaac Keeler, Arie Schoenmaker, and draftees Alix Tauru and James Barrat to bring into the backline in case of emergency.
The Saints possess more talent in the pockets and flanks, and it has allowed them to move some chess pieces further up the ground. Hunter Clark has had more than his fair share of injury battles, but when fully fit, provides plenty of run and precise ball movement. Evergreen Bradley Hill has moved back from his usual wing position, and not only has it allowed for the next generation to develop, but he has given a steadying head to rebound from defence. Marcus Windhager fills the other half-back flank, but he has also been employed as a midfield tagger when required, and this move also allows for players to be mentioned later to move back to defence as a plan B option. Depth is better here too, with veteran Jimmy Webster, versatile Liam Stocker, and youngster Angus McLennan waiting in the wings.
The theme of solid yet unspectacular continues when looking at the midfield. Captain Jack Steele is still St Kilda’s best midfielder, but has his blistering best gone past him? Football is very quickly becoming a sport of maximum damage, and with Steele in decline, the Saints will surely struggle in this area. An All-Australian at half-back, Jack Sinclair will have to make the full-time transition to game-breaking midfielder, and Mason Wood and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera on the wings are two pieces that will assist in this game plan, but speed and ball movement aren’t exactly what the Saints will be known for in 2025. NWM on the wing provides the Saints with a weapon to hit targets inside 50. I love his ball use from half-back, but the Saints are going to need potency further up the ground too. Nasiah on the wing gives them exactly that. Midfield depth is fine, with Darcy Wilson, Jack Macrae, Jack Carroll, Zak Jones, Ryan Byrnes, Hugo Garcia and Angus Hastie all having experienced AFL football. Draftee Tobie Travaglia is also very likely to feature early on in the season.
Another of St Kilda’s biggest problems is in the ruck. As we’ve pointed out before, the biggest issue the Saints have is forward of centre, and the coaching staff at Moorabbin seem to think that the key forward version of Rowan Marshall is the best solution to that problem. But that solution creates another problem: taking the ruck version of Rowan Marshall away from the centre square, where he is much more effective.
Of course, there is also the matter of his troublesome pelvis – usually a situation reserved for over-eager rock stars.
This time last year, Ross Lyon could’ve simply plugged that hole with Tom Campbell or Jack Hayes. But both of those players are gone; Campbell to Melbourne, Hayes to the SANFL. And it leaves only rookie Max Heath, who is still quite a ways off from being the full-time answer.
But there might be a silver lining for a co-reigning Magarey medalist. After a short but glittering career at SANFL level, dominant big man Harry Boyd has been picked up through the SSP, and some reports suggest Boyd’s resume means there are expectations he can slot straight in. At 198cm, he will be undersized at AFL level, but his aerobic capacity and skill make him a pseudo midfielder who can accumulate disposals at will. If Boyd can hold his own in the ruck, it allows Marshall to be used in the forward line more permanently.
And speaking of the forward line, St Kilda has what some would consider a prized diamond in key forward Max King. At his best, King is an ultra-damaging player, capable of turning a game in 10 minutes. But after a breakout 2022 season, in which he kicked 52 goals and looked like taking the next step in his career, King hasn’t been able to get on the park enough and doesn’t look the same player when he does. In the last two seasons, King has only managed 23 games from a possible 47, and while he has kicked 47 goals in those 23 games, a closer look tells us that more than a few of those majors came in junk time, against (with respect) junk time opponents.
All of this was manageable with Tim Membrey in the forward line, who proved himself a more than capable second banana. But in one of the most mystifying list moves in recent memory, St Kilda chose not to re-sign a player with 104 goals in the last four years to his name (these stats skewed by six goals from a seven-game return in 2023), allowing him to walk to Collingwood for free. Assuming King is fully fit and back to his best, it leaves the Saints with Cooper Sharman as the second tall forward, and Mitch Owens as the third tall hybrid option. Again, Ross the Boss seems desperate to utilize Rowan Marshall, and given the names I’ve just mentioned, as well as only Anthony Caminiti sitting on the sidelines, he might have to.
In Jack Higgins, Mattaes Phillipou, and Dan Butler, the Saints have a small/medium forward trio capable of rivalling the very best of them, and each has shown tremendous potential to stand on their own. Phillipou is the most likely to make the full-time midfield transition this season, as his numbers upon his return from a self-imposed absence were off the charts. For now, Phillipou has some recovering to do, as his bone stress in the fibula is something that will need time to heal, but when he is back, he can start as a damaging high half-forward, using his precise field kicking to his advantage. Higgins is currently the Saints’ main avenue to goal, having botted 36 majors last season, and while Butler had a slightly off year last season, his 2023 was excellent with 33 goals, and his forward pressure is highly valuable to St Kilda’s game plan. Behind those three, the Saints have Liam Henry to rotate off the bench, but he’s far better than that when fit, and second-year rookie Lance Collard, who tasted AFL action last season and showed some good signs.
But as we might soon be seeing, if injury bites, and bites hard, the Saints will begin to struggle immensely. Dougal Howard, Rowan Marshall, Max King, Mattaes Phillipou, Anthony Caminiti, Liam Stocker, Alix Tauru, Jack Sinclair, and Mason Wood are all hobbled with various ailments with varying degrees of seriousness. Regardless of whether any of these players miss any match time, the fact that all have now had interrupted pre-seasons doesn’t exactly bode well for any of their durability when the whips start cracking later on in the season.
To the supporters of Richmond and St Kilda, I apologise. But with these lists at your disposal, there’ll be some pain this year. There’s likely to be lots of pain. Both lists have glaring holes, and either time or resources prevented list management from being filled.
For one team, this has come after a long period of sustained success, and those involved with the club will be more than happy to take some pain, knowing the success that was enjoyed. For the other, it has been far too long since they have held any silverware at all, and yet another period in the bottom rungs of the ladder might be a little tough to swallow. Only time will tell how long it takes for both these sides to reach the peak once again.
So with all of that said, here is where my projected ladder will start to take shape. You’ll see it updated at the end of these pieces, and this is what it looks like after the first installment.
MATT OMAN’S PROJECTED 2025 LADDER
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17 – St Kilda
18 – Richmond
