Leaving the GABBA on Saturday night after Carlton’s embarrassing exit to the 2024 season, I accidentally walked onto the side of a six-lane highway towards my accommodation. In between the passing comments from Ford Rangers and Ford Raptors being driven by Brisbane Broncos fans, who had instead co-opted a winning side from a rival code to keep September interesting, you have time to think about the season just gone and the season that lies ahead.
It is easy to say, as Fox Footy have, that the six inclusions for Saturday’s game all backfired spectacularly and cost Carlton the game. It would be a far braver call to suggest that Jaxon Binns (three games), Cooper Lord (two games), Ashton Moir (two games), Jack Carroll (widely suggested to be heading back to Western Australia at the end of the season in search of more opportunities) and Alex Cincotta would have delivered a different result.
It is curious to explore the mindset of Charlie Curnow, and how he feels about the management of his ankle injury since rolling it in the pre-game warmup prior to the GWS Giants clash in Round 17, proceeding to play on despite this injury, and exacerbating it on three separate occasions during the season thereafter, before being put on ice after the Hawthorn game. Why was Charlie the one player out of the possible seven inclusions deemed unfit to play, when hindsight showed significant gambles were already taken on the inclusions of Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra and Sam Docherty?
Coach Michael Voss noted that he received a text message from Charlie the morning of the game declaring he was fit to play. It certainly did not go unnoticed that Charlie flew up to Brisbane ahead of his teammates for the game, and kept a distance from the club, choosing to appear at supporter’s functions in Brisbane prior to the game. I hope I’m clutching at straws, but the recent developments with Christian Petracca and his frustrations, post-injury, show the high standards that players have of their rehabilitation team and the trust placed upon them to help get star players back on the park delivering.
The mindset of Matthew Kennedy would also be one to explore, having left his wife and newborn baby to make a last minute dash to Brisbane to take his spot in the side as selected, only to be tactically subbed out of the game midway through the second quarter, while much more deserving players to be substituted continued to play on with zero influence on the game. The look on Kennedy’s face, captured by Seven’s cameras, after having been sent to the back of the bench, told plenty, after a long and challenging year of being forced to play almost every position on the ground (backup ruckman, key position defender, key position forward, tagger, back pocket, starting four centre bounce midfielder just to name a few) to cover a string of soft tissue injuries and poor list depth.
While Michael Voss’s subsequent justification for Tom De Koning starting as the substitute held rational sense – the thought being that De Koning only had about 70 to 80 minutes game time in him and to use him sparingly, it appeared to be solely in an isolated context, and lacked the perspective of the other concerns confronting him and his selection panel. It was a warm, muggy night in Brisbane, a top of 28 degrees throughout the day. Was this the game to play the two ruckmen, and an extra key defender in Lewis Young alongside six inclusions off significant breaks of football? Was Sam Docherty’s best chance of impacting the game as an inspiring substitute, rather than the figure that seemed just happy to be back on the park? Adam Cerra faded significantly after quarter time – was he capable of providing a similar impact later in the game when those around him had faded in the warm night? Would Matthew Kennedy’s versatility have been better used as the starting sub, and put a lot less noses out of joint? Ashton Moir’s impact in his two games as the sub could not be ignored either.
This was endemic of the season for Carlton and it’s use of the substitute role:
Jack Carroll (replaced Sam Docherty injured at HT)
Corey Durdin (replaced Orazio Fantasia at ¾ time – tactical)
Orazio Fantasia (replaced Corey Durdin at ¾ time – tactical)
Matt Owies (replaced Elijah Holland in third quarter – injured)
Jack Carroll (replaced Adam Saad in second quarter – injured)
Jack Carroll (replaced Zac Williams at half time – injured)
Jaxon Binns (replaced Matt Owies in fourth quarter – tactical)
Matt Kennedy (replaced Zac Williams at ¾ time – injured)
George Hewett (replaced Adam Cerra in third quarter – injured)
Jack Carroll (replaced Jacob Weitering at half time – injured)
Jack Carroll (replaced Matt Owies in fourth quarter – tactical)
Jack Carroll (replaced Orazio Fantasia in fourth quarter – tactical)
Corey Durdin (replaced Jack Carroll in fourth quarter – tactical)
Corey Durdin (replaced Orazio Fantasia in fourth quarter – tactical)
George Hewett (replaced Adam Cerra in fourth quarter – injured)
Matthew Owies (replaced Orazio Fantasia in fourth quarter – tactical)
Matthew Kennedy (replaced Zac Williams in second quarter – injured)
David Cuningham (replaced Blake Acres in fourth quarter – injured)
Jack Carroll (replaced David Cuningham in first quarter – injured)
Matt Kennedy (replaced Adam Cerra in third quarter – injured)
Alex Cincotta (replaced Jack Martin in the second quarter – injured)
Ashton Moir (replaced Corey Durdin in third quarter – injured)
Ashton Moir (replaced Jack Carroll in the fourth quarter – tactical)
A consistent pattern of having a soft tissue injury before three-quarter time to the same players aside, the tactics, or lack there of, were clear in using the substitute as effectively the 23rd best player in the squad, rather than any view to identifying a player whose attributes could make an impact in a short burst. Noting that when injuries did not play a part, the Blues chose to exclusively sub off a small forward as a tactical move, and I wonder whether this has played a part in their inability to determine the ruck position at IKON Park. Do the outcomes provided by playing Tom De Koning and Marc Pittonet seem that much better once one is able to be subbed off, rather than removing a small forward? Have the Blues missed a trick here in not giving this role more often than not to a developing player who can use his aerobic capacity to influence games and work his way into senior football, such as Jaxon Binns or even Billy Wilson, rather than entrusting the role to the work of Jack Carroll that is more suited to playing as an in an under midfield role.
The list management side of things appears to be concerning already, from a perspective that they are hamstrung with little moves available to be made.
The Blues already start the off-season with one player over the list limit, having drafted Cooper Lord in the mid-season draft to replace Jack Silvagni, who will return to the side in 2025. They have also committed to bringing in Irishman Matt Duffy as a category B rookie to join his countryman, Rob Monahan. The AFL have made changes to the rookie list, in particular the eligibility to stay on the list for a fourth year now limited to those having played ten games or less, which will require the Blues to elevate both Jordan Boyd and Alex Cincotta to the senior list.
The Blues have also committed to bringing in Lucas and Ben Camporeale as father/son draft picks.
That’s already six changes to the list required, before you start getting creative about how to improve a list that wasn’t quite there in 2023, and certainly wasn’t to standard in 2024.
With exit interviews commencing as early as today, it is likely the Blues will part way with Alex Mirkov, Sam Durdin and Dominic Akuei off the rookie list, while patience has all but run out with the ever-injured duo of Caleb Marchbank and David Cuningham. Jack Martin has undergone a medical evaluation at Fremantle, while Jack Carroll is likely to advise the club he wishes to be traded to West Coast.
That leaves the case of Matthew Owies, still without a contract despite a career best year in front of goal, with 33 goals an outcome to rival the best small forwards in the competition. It beggars belief that the contract talks continue to be drawn out, whilst Corey Durdin’s meagre output to date has already earned him a two year contract extension earlier in the year. Meanwhile the small forward alternatives remain unable to get on the park consistently (Zac Williams, Orazio Fantasia and Jesse Motlop).
There have been continued links between Carlton and GWS Giants veteran, Nick Haynes. Haynes, a free agent, and Carlton desperate for a tall defender to compliment Jacob Weitering, would be a logical partnership to say the least, but creates a headache for Blues’ list manager, Nick Austin for remaining list spots.
While the proposed AFL changes to the father/son bidding rules has been delayed a season, giving the Blues effectively a free first round draft pick, they are now in the position of not being able to effectively use the pick due to not having the list space to use it effectively, and certainly rival clubs would be aware of this strain, and not offering full value in their offers to trade for a future first round next year instead.
The club would certainly have its work cut out for them in convincing rivals to take a punt on defender Lewis Young or Durdin, having locked them away till 2026 respectively. A potential pay out would only further increase the strain on a salary cap already bulging under the weight of large long term deals to Patrick Cripps (2027), Harry McKay (2030), Charlie Curnow (2029), Sam Walsh (2026), while still having to find the capacity to accommodate the expiring contracts of Jacob Weitering and Tom De Koning in the next twelve months.
For all the work Sam Docherty has done in returning from three knee reconstructions and two bouts of chemotherapy, it would be a brave man to tap him on the shoulder and request he consider an early retirement with a year to run on his contract, but perhaps a necessary conversation given the Blues’ lack of options to immediately improve their list.
With the majority of Michael Voss’s assistants are contracted for yet another year – a shake up of line responsibilities may be required in the lack of wholesale changes being an option. Jordan Russell, who was given a lot of credit in 2021 as midfield and ball movement coach at the Western Bulldogs, has largely faltered as forward line coach. Aaron Hamill has overseen some individual breakout years in the backline, but has never provided a back six unit that appears united and operate as a team. With rumoured friction between Jacob Weitering and Lewis Young, can the arrival of an experienced second tall defender assist getting everyone on the same page? Carlton have given up more five-goal leads this season than any other team – are they easily counter-coached against? Is Aaron Greaves the person to be providing Michael Voss with the feedback to be changing tactics up as they’re so often easily countered? Noting the poor performance of the Carlton VFL side, which in turn saw minimal development from the younger players on the list, opportunities only afforded when injuries mandated that they do, the development team headed by Tom Lonergan and Luke Power deserve scrutiny as to whether they are providing an environment at VFL level that equips players to step up to the senior side and play a role. Zero appearances over two years from Harry Lemmey, Dominic Akuei, Alex Mirkov and Hudson O’Keefe, despite ongoing ruck injuries is a genuine concern.
With too much invested in the top line talent, and having endured two decades entrenched in the bottom four of the ladder, the Blues cannot bottom out, but it is difficult to see where the ability to make a genuine premiership statement comes from this position.
Mr Football II is an astute observer of the game. You can give hinm a follow on Twitter/X
