Predictions are a dangerous game in the media.
Everyone lays it out there: what they’ve seen from the pre-season, what they know from last year, and try to combine it with trade acquisitions and draft selections and come out of it with a theory that hopefully sticks.
When it comes to predicting who will make it to the pointy end of the season, you can almost make a certainty that Brisbane will be there again in 2024. The reigning premiers – two flags since 2021 and three Grand Final appearances in the last four seasons.
There’s nothing that suggests they’ll take a step back this year. The pieces are all there for a dynasty club that will be talked about for as long as the AFLW hangs around.
There were two changes from that premiership team last year. Phoebe Monahan retired and Mikayla Pauga was traded to Greater Western Sydney. Both players were solid in their roles, but much like how the Lions found a way to cover the losses of Emily Bates, Jesse Wardlaw and Greta Bodey 12 months earlier, they’re roles that can be covered.
Shanae Davison and Eleanor Hartill bring in potential. Davison as a forward-type, and Hartill more so as a key-position prospect. Brisbane has been elite at developing players since the competition started.
If you need proof, look at how far the likes of Poppy Boltz and Jennifer Dunne had come in the span of just one season. Rookies who hadn’t tasted senior footy heading into the start of the 2023 season, they became key staples in one of the best defensive units in the competition.
Even then, the growth shown over the years from the likes of Belle Dawes, Shannon Campbell, Jade Ellenger and Sophie Conway has been outstanding. Even the decision to begin shifting their captain Breanna Koenen away from the defence in recent years has been fantastic work to the point where she was the best player on the ground in the Grand Final triumph last year.
I’ve said it many times, and not afraid to say it again, but it will take some doing to unseat Craig Starcevich as the best coach in the competition. Not only does he get the best out of his players, but he always has found a way to shift the magnets to maximum effect.
There’s something to say about the side they beat in the Grand Final last year in North Melbourne.
Another side that only really enhanced their list in the off-season, adding experienced key defender Libby Birch from Melbourne, and adding talented youngsters Ella Slocombe and Georgia Stubs from the Draft.
They also get the bonus of welcoming back Vikki Wall from her commitments overseas and Zoe Savarirayan from injury – both players were very handy players on their day back in season seven.
However, a test of their depth is already being called upon, with several of their first-choice players in doubt for round one. But more specifically, their defensive stocks.
Birch suffered a knee injury during the pre-season, and missed the practice games and that already has put a massive compromise on her preparations. The club maintains she’ll be in the mix for round one, but just how fit will she be compared to those who have already had a hitout or two?
Jasmine Ferguson has also had a compromised pre-season. She suffered a wrist injury on the eve of pre-season and then suffered a concussion during their pre-season game against the Giants, but the club will back her in for the round one game against Brisbane.
However, Lulu Pullar and Eliza Shannon aren’t so fortunate. Both were shrewd acquisitions that proved their worth last year, and now North will be without both of them for at least the first half of the season—Pullar with a calf, and Shannon with an ankle.
Jenna Bruton as well is another one who is coming for a way back, still recovering from the Achilles injury she sustained in the Grand Final last year. The club believes she has a chance to return in Round One, but I have reservations about how she goes against players who again, have had one or two practice games under their belt.
I’m not saying any of these players are not fit, they’ve rehabbed the injuries and are doing everything to get over the hurdle, but match fitness is an entirely different beast that will eventually get answered by the time we hit a couple of rounds into the season.
However, a lot of their core pieces here are as good as they’ve ever been. The midfield still bats significantly deep with Jasmine Garner, Ash Riddell and Mia King leading the way, and Amy Smith, Ruby Tripodi and Taylah Gatt all experiencing midfield minutes last year.
And much like how you can never count out Brisbane, you can never count out the Crows.
They finished up 2023 as the minor premiers, defeated Melbourne and North Melbourne in the home and away season and were three points shy of knocking off the Lions during the home and away season, and then two points shy of beating them in the qualifying final.
That alone speaks of how close they are to getting back to the promised land. For the first time since the AFLW started, they have missed out on Grand Finals in consecutive years.
There might be some pressure on the coach and the playing group to get back there, but the list is good enough to get there again. The integration of Danielle Ponter into the midfield mix last year adds an extra potent layer to a midfield unit that already possesses two top 10 midfielders in Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff.
And the depth from there is very solid. Teah Charlton, Abbie Ballard, Rachelle Martin and Chelsea Randall were all featured in the centre bounces at some stage last year. Taylah Levy has had an impressive pre-season by all accounts, and Brooke Boileau is a draftee projected to feature early on, such is her talent.
They’re a top-two side in the competition for scoring, spearheaded by 20 goals from Ponter, as well as a career-year from Caitlin Gould (19 goals) and Eloise Jones (18 goals). To further add to that, the Crows have got a plethora of players who have been on the end of goals throughout 2023.
11 players kicked four goals or more in 2023, which includes Marinoff (four goals), Hatchard (eight goals), and Niamh Kelly (six goals) – players who have largely spent their time following the ball around or playing further up the field. Truth be told, is a very impressive feat.
Add in the other end a study defensive unit that has often been hard to put a winning score against. Sarah Allan had a good year, Zoe Prowse continues to get better with every game she plays, and there’s plenty to like with the younger players like Sarah Goodwin and Kiera Mueller.
I suppose one other side I’ve got my eye on this year is Geelong, who were within a whisker of causing a great boilover against Brisbane in the preliminary final. They’ve got an unbelievable midfield unit, and an ultra-reliable defensive unit and the forwards took a massive step in the right direction.
We know Chloe Scheer is a brilliant player, however, with her now out for the first half of the season, the Cats must rely on others to step up to the plate: Jackie Parry had a breakout season, Aishling Moloney was incredibly impressive in her first year, and Kate Surman, Darcy Moloney and Shelley Scott were all very good in their roles as smaller forwards.
I have reservations about Melbourne, given how poorly they bowed out of 2023. Not even just in the two finals they played, but in the lead-up to finals, they were belted in round 10 to Brisbane. But granted, they’ve still got the core pieces in place to make top four at least, and they’ll be banking on their younger players such as Ryleigh Wotherspoon and Alyssia Pisano to lift them back to premiership contention
However, they’ve yet to put a timeline on Liv Purcell, after she suffered a facial injury in their practice match against Port Adelaide, while there are big questions over the fitness of Karen Paxman and Tayla Harris, both key figures at this club.
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