Ten Things I Learnt After Round 21
1. The Bulldogs just might make the Top 4
You only need to go back four weeks ago when the Bulldogs were sitting in 11th place with eight wins and eight losses against their name. They were soundly beaten in Round 17 by Port Adelaide, and looked to be anything but a finals team. They’ve since won four in a row including the scalps of Carlton, Geelong and the Swans, and it looks like they’ve put Melbourne’s season out of its misery this week.
With games remaining against Adelaide, North Melbourne and the Giants at home, they could finish the home and away stretch with seven wins, and with so many sides up near the top doing their best to trip over themselves, they may very well sneak into 4th with 14 wins and their healthy percentage.
When analysing a game where one team had 35 shots at goal versus 14, you could be talking about a 100-point demolition. Luckily for the Demons, the Bulldogs’ inaccuracy in front of goal made the margin just 51 points, with Ugle-Hagan the main offender with 2.6 against his name. Bontempelli played another cracker finishing with 33 disposals and two goals. Treloar also bagged two majors from his 30 touches. All in all, the Dogs are flying all of a sudden, and the search for a new head coach is on hold.
Melbourne are all but certain of missing the finals after this loss. They would have to win all their remaining games as well as rely on the teams above them to fall over. It has been a season the Dees might want to forget in which their forward line woes seemed to deepen, and the loss of Christian Petracca left a huge hole. Too many times we’ve seen a low score from Melbourne. Fritsch, Pickett and Sparrow kicked two each in this game, but only six Melbourne players were goalkickers. The duo of May and Lever have rarely been out there together this year. In fact, May was subbed out of this game due to injury, so now it seems their defence is also undermanned. The last thing they need coming into next week’s game against the Power is to have Steven May unavailable.
2. Gold Coast never finish seasons well
The most games the Suns have won after Round 12 since entering the competition in 2011 is four. The average is around two wins. The distressing thing is that Gold Coast were on seven wins at Round 12 this year and many thought this could be the breakthrough season, but as they’ve done in previous years, they’ve won just two games since, and now, will not only miss finals, but beating their record of ten wins seems unlikely.
Hardwick was brought in to get the team past this annual hurdle, so it’s back to the drawing board for the upcoming preseason. The Suns have one more genuine chance to win on the road this year when they take on the bottom side Richmond in Round 24. Their last win on the road was in Round 9 last year. If they were to lose to the Tigers, that would be humiliating. Against the Eagles, the sad thing is that the Suns had the lead for just on 100 minutes out of approximately 120. Once again, they couldn’t hold on.
Ben King and Ben Long both booted three, and in a surprise move, Mac Andrew was moved forward and also kicked three. Anderson and Rowell both had 30 touches and Witts dominated the ruck with 53 hitouts. But it just wasn’t enough. The Bombers take on the Suns in Melbourne next week.
The Eagles got their fourth win for the year after a ten game losing game streak. They showed a lot of character to stay in touch with the Suns, and when they finally hit the lead through a brilliant snap by their skipper in Liam Duggan with just a few minutes to go, it seemed a fitting result. Jamie Cripps’ exceptional snap for goal a minute later put it beyond doubt. Tim Kelly had 31 touches in another consistent performance. Yeo had 26 and was also important. Jake Waterman kicked 4 goals. Can the Eagles knock off North Melbourne next week? It’s in Melbourne so it will be tough, but they’re a chance.
3. Richmond might benefit greatly from finishing last
The talk is that Dan Rioli wants out of Tigerland and is seeking a new home with former coach Damien Hardwick at the Gold Coast Suns. Apparently, this would pave the way for the Tigers to be eligible to take five picks out of the Top 20 in the national draft. With that in mind, are we going to hear the “t” word getting tossed around? The Tigers have been ordinary all year, so there’s a fair chance tanking a game isn’t necessary. However, the reality is that winning any games at this stage would not be in their best interests. Just saying.
Are we liking what the Kangaroos are serving up yet? They’re actually watchable these days. Davies-Uniacke is every bit the star. Against the Tigers he finished with a career high three goals from 33 touches. Tristan Xerri dominated the ruck contest and has definitely arrived as an AFL ruckman. Nick Larkey kicked five goals in another polished performance. After losing the first 11 games of the season they now sit on three wins with a chance to go back to back when they play West Coast at Blundstone Arena next round.
One thing that is quite clear is that Richmond have a few more years of pain ahead. Daniel Rioli is probably going to win their best and fairest this year and he looks like moving on. They’re also going to lose Liam Baker and possibly Jack Graham, both premiership players. Dustin Martin is nearing the end. Things may get worse before they get better, and Adem Yze has a huge challenge ahead of him. I guess that’s the price attached to winning three flags. The wooden spoon is almost certain. The rebuild is underway.
4. Jezza dragged his team across the line
It’s been very difficult to truly get a gauge on where the Geelong Cats are at. The twilight game on Saturday against the Crows was a fair indication that they are not unbeatable at home, or anywhere else for that matter. They are not a one man team by any measure, but there’s absolutely no doubt that the Cats do not win this game if Jeremy Cameron wasn’t there. His amazing six-goal effort willed his team across the line and keeping their hopes of a Top 4 finish in the frame. Tom Stewart picked up 28 touches and was influential, but Jezza was the man in this game. He’ll need to be that and more next weekend over in Perth against the Dockers to give his side any chance of a victory.
It was actually a bloody good effort by the Crows and it was good to see Rachele kicking three goals, as did Riley Thilthorpe who many believe will be right up there with the greats of the game if he can keep his body healthy. Adelaide will be wanting to finish their disappointing season on a high note. This week sees them take on the Bulldogs who are running hot. As good as the Bulldogs are playing, it’s a game they shouldn’t take lightly.
5. Charlie Curnow’s streak ends on 66
Until Saturday’s big clash with Collingwood, Charlie Curnow had scored at least a goal in his past 66 outings. This puts him in rare company alongside names like Lloyd, Franklin and Kennedy who have achieved a similar feat. Charlie was well held against the Magpies scoring just two behinds from nine touches. Unfortunately for Charlie, he’s had a string of less than satisfactory performances in the big games. There is speculation he’s carrying an ankle injury sustained during the game. But whatever the case, his recent form has been below what we’ve come to expect from the two time Coleman medallist. He needs to find form as soon as possible. His team really needs more.
The Pendlebury factor was huge on the weekend. You could see from the start that the Pies wanted it more. Pendles himself would’ve been among Collingwood’s best with an impressive 27 touches. Nick Daicos had 28 touches and was damaging. Bobby Hill was lively and caused headaches for the Blues defenders. Darcy Cameron was far too good for Pittonet. His marking was a feature of the game. It was a pretty solid all-round performance by a club that is now just outside the eight and hoping they can sneak in by beating the Swans next round.
Adam Cerra left the ground with his fifth hamstring injury in just a year. There’s clearly a problem there that is costing him and the team greatly. Cottrell also left the ground and some suggest Curnow is under a cloud. It’s all falling g apart for the Blues. They were flying high five weeks ago, and now they could be outside the top out by the end of next round. One can only imagine how Carlton supporters will react should they miss the finals. Cripps is one of the few who is worthy of high praise at this stage. He seems to be back to the days where he was carrying the team. And when you start with eight straight behinds for the match, you know things aren’t going to end well.
The Blues did come late and almost pinched it. But the right result was achieved. Not just for Scott Pendlebury, but for the fact Collingwood had been the better team for over three quarters. Once again, the Blues only showed up for one quarter. It’s really hard to understand why that keeps happening.
6. Sydney’s fall from grace is now complete
If Carlton’s woes are concerning, then Sydney’s past fortnight is cause for consternation! The shock 112-point defeat they suffered at the hands of Port Adelaide was the biggest defeat in Longmire’s 13 year coaching career. We could end up with a ladder leader on just 14 of 15 wins at this rate. Sydney’s remaining games are against Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide on the road. Now that the Swans have lost their mojo, who knows where the wins are? The midfield trio of Heeney, Warner and Gulden looked unstoppable just a fortnight ago. Gulden has retained his high levels, but Heeney and Warner have found the going a little tougher. Warner had 19 possessions making it two weeks in a row where he’s had less than 20. Heeney only managed 17 which is well below his average. It’s actually crazy to see that after losing five of their last six games that they’re still somehow a game clear on top of the ladder. Sydney host Collingwood at the SCG next round. After the past two weeks, it’s hard to see the Swans winning.
7. Two losses after choking big leads may cost Hawthorn finals
Hawthorn lead the Giants by a 28 point margin at the final break. Coincidentally, way back in Round 10 at Adelaide Oval against the Power, Hawthorn also lead by the exact same margin. We all know what happened in that game.
Sadly, and with a spot in the top eight on the line, the Hawks surrendered that lead again when the Giants had a seven goal to two final term to win by just two points courtesy of a Tom Green goal at the 29 minute mark. Hawthorn still could make it into September action, but this is definitely a major setback. The Giants could only manage five goals in the first three quarters before they took control and got the win. Jesse Hogan started the game strongly and was instrumental in getting his side across the line late in the game. He booted five goals and now leads Curnow by two in the Coleman race.
Toby Greene was also influential booting three goals from 17 touches, but the Giants midfield had its hands full with Newcomb, Worpel and co who were on top for most of the game. They somehow got the points and have all but guaranteed themselves a place in the finals, but a huge challenge awaits them this coming week at the GABBA against Brisbane.
Hawthorn will be ruing their last quarter on Sunday. Its going to hurt them more if they fall short of a top eight spot after the incredible body of work they’ve put together, but the reality is that it was another Top 8 side they fell short against. And this week they have another one in Carlton coming up, and this game could decide finals for both teams! Newcomb and Amon were both top possession getters with 30 apiece and former Bomber D’Ambrosio had 22 and seems to be happier in the brown and gold. Jack Gunston looks certain to go on in 2025 after another strong showing with four goals to his name.
The Hawks should’ve won this game. Will they come out breathing fire next week against the Blues, or have they had the wind blown out of their sails after leading the whole game. Either way, this coming Sunday at the MCG should be a beauty!
8. Essendon dug very deep to keep their season alive
A Jye Amiss goal early in the final term had the Dockers 25 points up and seemingly cruising to victory. The Bombers then responded spectacularly, kicking five unanswered goals in ten minutes and all of a sudden found themselves in the lead by seven points. It was Jye Amiss again kicking his 4th at the 29 minute mark with less than a minute remaining that tied up the scores. Just when we were thinking we were witnessing draw number four for the year, the Bombers got the centre break and a handball that put Durham into space resulted in him kicking a behind from 50 to give the Bombers a win when all seemed lost.
Jake Stringer booted four for the Bombers. Nic Martin kicked two, both in that frenetic final quarter to really get his team going. He also had 25 touches. Darcy Parish amassed 34 possessions in a solid return to form. Caldwell, Redman, Merrett and Durham all worked hard throughout in what was a much needed win against quality opposition. Now sitting just two points adrift of the 8th placed Carlton, the Bombers will now need to bring that effort against the Suns next week, but as it is in Melbourne, I’d say the Bombers should prevail.
Fremantle just went from being third on the ladder to sixth as a result of this loss. A draw would’ve had them currently in third position. It’s a loss that will hurt because a 25 point lead was surrendered. The forward line combo of Amiss and Treacy is functioning beautifully with seven goals scored between the pair, although Treacy left the ground hurt with what could be a knee concern. Brayshaw and Serong were consistent as always. The Dockers will need to dust themselves off and focus on the job of beating Geelong at Optus Stadium next week. A loss there will seriously put a dent in their finals prospects.
9. Brisbane flex their muscles into premiership favouritism
In recent times, the Saints have shown improvement and have managed to put a few wins on the board, none more significant than their shock victory over Sydney. Based on that, many scribes saw the Saints as a potential threat to the Lions, but by midway through the second term it was obvious that the only thing that was under threat was the lowest score of the year by West Coast at 4.6 (30).
Brisbane were merciless against the beleaguered St Kilda outfit, with the final margin a whopping 85 points. Daniher booted four, while Rayner and Bailey kicked three each. Neale was dominant once again with 33 touches. Brisbane are now premiership favourites after the Swans declining fortunes, something which nobody could’ve predicted midway through the season. It’s now a nine game winning streak. Can the Giants end that at the GABBA this Saturday?
The Saints were able to go past the lowest score of the year, but not by a lot. They only managed 5.9 (39) and would be disappointed with that considering they’ve scored over one hundred in the previous two games. Wanganeen-Milera finished with 31 touches while Sinclair had 28. Marshall once again had a huge game with 26 touches and a goal. The Saints are every chance to notch up their ninth win for the year next week against the Tigers.
10. Let’s talk about peaking at the wrong time.
This season is turning out to be truly bizarre in many ways. Perhaps the AFL will say they are on the right track with their equalisation policies as we are seeing one of the most even seasons in recent history.
We often hear talk about sides peaking early or leaving their run late. I often thought this idea was fanciful. Sure, teams have ups and downs, peaks and troughs and the like. But this year is next level. Teams are not playing a bad game here and a good game there. It’s happening in blocks. This year, more than ever, it really does seem the team or teams who hit their rhythm at the right time are the ones who might go all the way.
Take the Swans, for instance. They were flying high at 13-1 and playing a top brand of footy. Now they’ve won one game from their last six! Carlton were sitting pretty at 11-4 and have won just one from their past five. The Cats won their first seven games then slumped to 8-6. They seem to have steadied the ship since, but there’s a definite uncertainty about them. GWS won the first five and they, too, slumped as low as 10th with an 8-7 record. We’ve seen Essendon winning just three games from their last nine after being second on the ladder after Rd 11. The Pies have lost three or more in a row twice this year while going through a period where they won six out of eight games. Port Adelaide looked gone for all money a few weeks back. Now they’re third on the ladder. Freo have had the consecutive wins and losses too. And none of us forgot that the Hawks lost the first five games of the year.
We are still three weeks away from the finals, but if they were held now, it looks as though the teams to beat would be Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs. And both were not looking like contending a month or two ago. Can they maintain this form for the next three weeks? Or will the other teams in or around the eight get themselves playing their best in time for September? It all seems to be coming down to being in top form at the best time.
I’ll never doubt those theories about peaking too early ever again.
