(This is the second in a series of articles analysing the teams who will have a big say in September action. Whichever team is second at the completion of Round 21 will be the next Club dissected and scrutinised.)
The Blue Baggers – The Great Victorian Hope
Dare to Dream
“You will not do incredible things without an incredible dream…”
(John Elliott (dec 3/10/1941 – 23/09/2021) former President Carlton Football Club 1983-2002)
Dry July
At the start of July, Carlton, Sydney and Essendon were the mid-season frontrunners and it looked a fete accompli the Bombers would finally win a final and the Baggers and the Swannies would play off in the Grand Final.
Well, that was then, and this is now, and the walls have tumbled down. The Bombers are gone, the Swans look vulnerable, while the Blues are on the brink of freefall.
When I started writing this article last week the Blues were second on the ladder, but I asked permission from HB to delay this article as I wanted to see how the Blues, without Blake Acres and Tom De Koning in the team, would perform against the Power. By the time the ball was bounced last Friday night, Harry McKay was also out the selected team.
The pressure was really on Carlton’s fringe players vying for a place in the team come September to rise to the occasion. Could they do it? The answer, for the most part was, no they couldn’t.
Despite the best efforts of Charlie Curnow, the Baggers lost to the Power at home, in a match a month ago the Blues would have ticked off as a win. Carlton is now fourth on the ladder by percentage from a strong chasing pack.
Is Carlton still the Great Victorian Hope come September?
The Great Victorian Hope
The mere thought of the Swans, the Lions or the Dockers winning the 2024 Grand Final sends a shiver down the spine of most Victorians, no matter who they barrack for. For most of the season Carlton has been all the rage in Victoria, but in the last few weeks the Blues have been on the nose, so the VFL diehards’ ‘thoughts and prayers’ are now directed towards the Cats, the Doggies, or even the Hawks.
While many have jumped off the Blue Train, it may be a little premature. Yes, Carlton have lost three of their last four, and yes, they looked impotent last weekend without Acres, McKay and TdK, but are Carlton’s Premiership chances in as much trouble as some would have us believe?
Every team in the competition has been tested by adversity with injuries and form loss this season, but the true test is not the adversity, but rather how the team performs after their demons and adversities have been exposed.
Under the glare of Friday night lights last weekend, Carlton’s weaknesses, flaws, and fragilities were exposed by the Power, especially with Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh being well held by their direct opponents. It was Carlton’s worst performance for a season and a half, but did it come at the right time?
The collateral damage for Carlton during its Dry July means the Blues have dropped from second to fourth, but the positive is they had banked a few wins earlier in the year, so when it was their turn for a form slump during the season the damage would be minimal.
Last week the Blues were second on the ladder, this week they are fourth, and now is the time for the Blues to stare down their demons and fragilities as they try to consolidate a double chance.
Like the ‘Little Blues Train that could’, the Baggers are still chugging along, albeit with a struggle up a hill at present, and you what, ‘I think they can, I think they can’.
So, what does Carlton have to do to be a Player in September and possibly even snatch their eightieth Flag?
The Fragility Within
The expectations on the Carlton Football Club are high this year, and the thunderous applause they receive week in week out from their diehard supporters when they win is intoxicating, but when they lose a game or two the radio airways are full of doomsayers venting their vitriol. Carlton is the ultimate pressure cooker club and when expectations rise there is a fragility about this current Carlton.
Since Chris Judd came to the club in 2008, there has been much hype about a Carlton resurgence, but rarely has the club and the players been able to live up to the hype.
Until now.
There is a nervous buzz around the Blues in 2024, and while their supporters still have the Carlton arrogance in victory, there is also have a fragility that comes with the possibility of failure while trying to succeed.
The Baggers have had a horror July, and the doomsayers are all too ready to write the Blues off, but is it justified?
Carlton, like the Sydney Swans, are in a form slump, and while the Blues are in a more perilous position than the Swans, they have earned the right to tinker a bit with their setup heading to September. Hear me out.
Carlton has been secure in second spot on the ladder for some time now, and as other teams have faltered and fallen away the Baggers have done enough to still be fourth even though they are not playing one hundred percent. I pose this question; are the Blues currently in a different training regime than the rest of the competition preparing for September, or are they in a form slump? The answer is probably a bit of both, but by providence of good form earlier in the season Carlton can address their weaknesses now so they are not exposed in September.
Unlike most pundits who like to exaggerate every ebb and flow during a season (which is just as lazy as it easy) my preference is analysis why a team can and can’t win the Premiership, and what adjustments need to be made now to avoid September disappointment.
Carlton’s biggest obstacle to success this year (or next) is not necessarily the health of its playing list, but rather the coaching staff quietening the demons between the ears. Last year the Blues run to the Preliminary Final was seen as a stunning success given they were nowhere near the finals at the hallway mark of the year. This year the external pressure from one the most passionate of supporter bases in the AFL on the Blues is for ultimate success, but such passion is still tinged with a fear of failure given the many false Baggers’ dawns since 1999.
So, let’s dissect the Calton Football Club.
Patrick Cripps – The Ultimate Warrior
Four weeks ago, in the last quarter of the game against the Giants I was perplexed to see Patrick Cripps contesting ruck contests against Kieren Briggs, and like many, I questioned, why?
Patrick Cripps means more to his team than any other player in the AFL, and the courageous, never-say-die captain, needs to be protected. Cripps is the ultimate team player, the ultimate Captain, and on any given weekend he is the Ultimate Warrior, but the days of him being the Mr Fixit, everywhere man, should be shelved from this point on
For over a decade, Crippa carried the weight of expectations at Ikon Park on his own shoulders and he has never taken step backwards, so with five weeks until the finals, I would suggest the hierarchy at Ikon Park start to protect Patrick Cripps from himself and make sure he is fit, healthy and ready to tear September apart.
t would be disastrous for the Blues 2024 campaign if he was to be hurt contesting a ruck duel.
In 2022 Chris Scott didn’t care about a few late wins or losses, as he was more concerned about protecting Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield for September action. In what was probably Scott’s Machiavellian moment as a coach, he trained the aging duo to the minute to be ready go on Grand Final Day, and boy, were they ready.
Michael Voss has a duty to protect Cripps and prepare him to be the Ultimate September Warrior. Cripps is Carlton’s most valuable asset, and it is time the players around him started to lighten the load on him.
As a lover of the game, it would be a shame if the game was robbed of seeing Crippa playing in September due to trying to win a match of his own endeavour and will in the closing rounds of the season.
Who is going to stand up with Crippa?
There was a time just before the bye, when the Blues were functioning cohesively as a team and all looked locked in place for a good run at the finals, but over the last month the form of some players have waned, and like the Blues of old, the pressure has reverted to Patrick Cripps to again be the saviour. Relying so heavily on the form and perseverance of Patrick Cripps spells disaster for the Blues come September.
Sam Walsh – the Lieutenant
In full flight Cripps and Walsh are Carlton’s midfield one two punch, and the Blues are near on invincible when they fire. My concern about the Blues is not the form of the dynamic duo, but rather who steps up to the plate when one or both is having a bad day, or a run of slightly below par form?
Note, a below-par game for Cripps or Walsh is still an above-par game for most players.
In Carlton’s Round 15 demolition of Geelong, the Blues midfield pillars of Patrick Cripps (41 possessions) and Sam Walsh (33 possessions) starred, consistent with their form prior to the bye. It is a given that Cripps and Walsh are the backbone of the Blues on field success. While Cripps’ output has remained consistent since the Blues’ Round 15 Geelong game (except last weekend), the output of Walsh has been indifferent.
Sam Walsh’s possessions between Round 16 to Round 20 are, 26 possessions, 22 possessions, 27 possessions, 25 possessions, and 23 possessions last weekend. Us mere mortals can only dream about such statistics, but for a player of Sam Walsh’s stature, such numbers mean he has had an average game (not a bad game). Walsh is the second in charge behind Cripps in the midfield, and there is a direct correlation between the form of Walsh and the rest of the Blues midfield.
Walsh having a quieter than normal month is not of concern, but it has exposed the soft underbelly of the Carlton midfield. Blake Acres and Nic Newman aside (see below), the task for the Blues coaching staff is to find the right combination of midfield and running players to compliment Carlton’s dynamic duo.
Blake Acres – Mr Consistency
Players like Blake Acres, Will Hoskin-Elliott, James Rowbottom and Sam Flanders will never get the accolades of their star-studded mates, but their role should never be underestimated. Acres’ consistency and ability to adapt to different roles when called upon makes him one of the most important Carlton players selected each week. Nobody runs harder as a wingman. Nobody gets back ont he last line of defence as often.
Michael Voss and his coaching team know they can rely upon Acres to do his job for the team consistently from week to week, and he can be a swing man if Cripps or Walsh are getting tagged out of a game, or if they are just having a bad day.
In the last month the consistent form of Blake Acres has helped the Blues remain in the hunt for a Top 4 even though they have stuttered a bit.
Acres is one of the players I look forward to seeing in September as I think he is the type who would thrive under the September pressure cooker. It would not surprise if the Blues do reach the Promised Land this year that Acres takes home Normie.
Last weekend Blake Acres was out injured and it exposed Carlton in two ways. Firstly, without Acres in the team taking, stretching one of the opposition’s best players, Cripps and Walsh were exposed with sustained pressure throughout the match, and in the second half they had been run off their legs. Secondly, Acres brings other players into the game, often in concert with Nic Newman off half-back. For Cripps and Walsh one two punch to work the Blues NEED Acres (and Newman) to absorb a few punches while landing a few jabs along the way.
Side note: the Blues have missed the leadership and stability of Sam Docherty all year, however, he is out, so now is the time for a player like Blake Acres and/or Nic Newman to take charge and grasp a on field leadership role.
Show us what you have – Adam Cerra, George Hewett, Matthew Kennedy, Jack Martin, Alex Cincotta, Matthew Cottrell, Elijah Hollands and Adam Saad
Earlier in the year I was listening to a Carlton match on the radio as I drove home, and what impressed was the amount of ball the above-named players were all getting and using efficiently. On that night, it sounded like Carlton’s soft underbelly has developed a ‘six pack’ during the off-season.
In the month of July, it looks like the Blues must toughen up their underbelly again.
Three weeks ago, Tom Libertore treated Adam Cerra with contempt as he literally just grabbed the ball straight out of his arms as he surged forward. Libba is a true mongrel of a player, and he will expose any weakness an opposition may have – he has made a career out of it. Libba didn’t just expose Cerra that day, but he also exposed the vulnerability of Carlton’s midfield below the level of the ‘A’ listers.
Michael Voss has battled with selection over the last month trying to get the right mix of midfielders and running players as he prepares the Blues for a serious September assault. It would be expected Cerra, Hewett, Kennedy, Elijah Hollands, Martin (injured) and others would be trying to knock door down to ensure their spot in September, but no matter who Voss selects, no one player is really standing out.
When Cripps needed a wingman in the last 10 minutes against the Giants and the Bulldogs, he found himself alone trying to will his team over the line. Walsh tried hard, but the above-named players were either missing during that period, or they turned the ball over with poor disposals.
Michael Voss has some hard decisions to make before September as he searches for a complete team, especially given the injury to ruckman Tom De Koning.
The question for the Blues run with and role players is, who wants to be Carlton’s Stewie Dew, Mitch Morton or Billy Frampton this September?
Carlton’s Ruck Dilemma – the injury to TDK
There is no right time for a player to be injured, but in the case of Tom De Koning the timing of his injury six weeks out from September gives Michael Voss enough time to set up a midfield game plan with Marc Pittonet replacing TDK in the key ruck position.
Pittonet and TDK are very different types of ruckmen. TDK is a mobile big man who can contest at ground level for a clearance, while Pittonet is more the quintessential tap ruckman. A boxer and a fighter. TDK has grace and style, whilst Pittonet is a puncher, looking to land heavy blows. The benefit of Pittonet is he will win more tap outs thus giving the Carlton midfielders first use of the ball, the downside is he is less likely to win a contested possession in the midfield and he is far less mobile around the ground than TDK.
Even if TDK has no setbacks in his recovery, the earliest he would be available would be for the first week of finals, so is vitally important Carlton get the connection between Pittonet and his midfielders right before the end of the home and away season, so it is sustainable under September heat.
A few diehard Carlton supporters have stated to me the loss of Tom De Koning may cruel Carlton’s final chances. While I understand their pessimism, they are underestimating the ability of Marc Pittonet and the point of difference he brings to the Carlton lineup – have faith. He is nothing if not a big body that refuses to be pushed out of the way at ruck contests. Against the big boys, he is an obstacle.
Side note: it is a shame that Jack Silvagni is out for the year injured as this would have allowed Michael Voss more versatility in their ruck structure given the injury to TDK.
Carlton’s Kryptonite – Defensive Pressure
The single biggest impediment to the Blues winning the flag this year is their defensive game style which allows opposing teams to score heavily against them.
Carlton’s defence leaks more scores per match than any other club, except for the teams thirteenth or lower on the ladder. Carlton leak on average 87 points per game, and to put that in perspective, the Swans restrict opposition teams to just 72 points per game, while the Lions average 78.6 points against.
The intensity of finals football places an emphasis on the defensive side of the game, and at present it is arguable as to whether the Blues defensive game would stand up in September. Now is the time for the Blues to work on their defensive game plan before it is exposed in September.
Mitch McGovern
I am going to disagree with a lot of Carlton supporters, but as big a loss TDK is, Carlton have struggled more with Mitch McGovern being out of the team due to injury. A fit and healthy McGovern puts the ‘de’ back in ‘defence’ for the Blues as his presence frees up Jacob Weitering to be the interceptor beast and for Adam Saad to play his natural running game from half back.
How does Carlton become more defensive?
Adam Saad needs to regain his confidence and dare to be the player running of half-back, breaking teams apart again. Injuries have hurt Saad’s game this year as he had to play a key role defending opposition players rather than running off them. A fit McGovern frees Saad to be the defensive runner.
Whether it be Cincotta, Boyd, Fogarty, Kemp or one of the Hollands brothers or whoever is sent down back to be a role player, they need to perform their role. Weitering, McGovern, Newman and Saad need to be freed up by the role players to do what they do best.
Obviously, Mitch McGovern is part of the solution, as he is a pure defender who will free up other players, but the other part of the solution may be the inclusion of Marc Pittonet.
As mentioned above, the inclusion of Pittonet in the team changes things. He is more of a defensive ruck than De Koning, who loves to push forward and hit the scoreboard. For example, Pittonet is a better match up on Brodie Grundy than TdK because Grundy loves the push and shove. Pushing and shoving Pittonet works a lot less than it does against TDK.
There is no one answer as to how Carlton become a better defensive team, rather a combination of factors need to be addressed.
The Super Stars
There is only one Charlie Curnow
Last weekend against the Power, Charlie Curnow, without his usual dance partner by his side (Harry), played one of the best games of his career in a team that was emphatically defeated. Charlie has a real presence about him, and when he is switched-on he is almost unstoppable.
Last season against the Suns, the one man show that is Charlie Curnow literally dragged the Blues back into the game and over the line. It was as good a solo performance as one could witness. Last weekend Curnow’s performance was as good a team first performance as one could witness.
Curnow, like Cripps, has the ability to be the player to drag his team over the line by sheer individual brilliance, as well of the ability to be the ultimate team player in a dire situation.
Charlie is a capital letter true SUPERSTAR of the game, and as long as he is fit and healthy the Baggers season is still well and truly on track.
Having said that, and in the absence of Harry Mckay last weekend, where was the support cast up forward assisting Charlie? Jesse Motlop and Matthew Owies need to force their way into the game more and feed of the dominance of their two big men (three including TdK). At present both players are averaging single digit possessions per game which is just not good enough. Maybe they need to study Tom Papley, Dylan Moore or Bobby Hill on how to be a productive as well as explosive small forward.
Harry McKay – if Charlie doesn’t get you then Harry will
The fitness and health of Harry McKay is crucial to the Blues chances of grabbing September silverware. The mere selection of McKay creates a conundrum for any opposition coach as must decide which defender plays on McKay and who plays on Curnow.
This season McKay is playing as a high half-forward and a lot of his marks and possessions are taken further up the field, often leaving Curnow one out in the forward line waiting for Harry to deliver the ball to him directly or indirectly. Herein lays the strength of Harry; not only is he a great contested mark player, but his ability to deliver the ball 60 metres to a one-on-one contest is uncanny.
If I was comparing Harry McKay to another player/s in the league, he has the strength and guile of Tom Hawkins, as well as the field smarts of Jeremy Cameron.
Jacob Weitering – why do the All-Australian selectors hate him?
Jacob Weitering, at his best, is on the same rung of defenders as Harris Andrews, Liam Jones and Sam Taylor, yet for reasons most can’t quite understand he has never been selected in an All-Australian team. Go figure!
Make no mistake, Weitering is a defensive ‘A-lister’ in this Carlton team, but to be at his best he needs Mitch McGovern on the field with him and playing well.
May and Lever, Moore and Maynard, Stewart and Duncan, are immortalised at their respective clubs for their defensive acts in Grand Finals, and if the Baggers are to progress to the Big Dance, then the synergy between Weitering and McGovern needs to be perfected before September, so they are in perfect harmony.
With Weitering suffering mutliple consecutive corkies, he needs his wingman to step up. He needs help.
At present Carlton leaks scores, but last weekend with both Weitering and McGovern playing, the Blues defence held the Power to a respectable 79 points, some eight points lower than their season average. I have not read one post report that detailed the efficiency of the Blues defence last weekend, but the efforts of a Weitering/McGovern-led defence to contain the Power’s scoring is the positive to come out of that defeat.
Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh
I have already written a lot about the dynamic duo, Cripps and Walsh and their importance to the Blues chances in 2024, so I will keep this short.
If Cripps and Walsh were in the Equestrian Finals at the Olympic games, Cripps would win the best all-round gold medal, and Walsh would be the champion of the dressage, in other words, there is nothing Patrick Cripps can’t do, while Walsh adds the polish and class.
Champions don’t stay out of form for long, and when the September blowtorch is applied, expect Cripps and Walsh to the at the forefront leading by example.
Are the Blues the Great Victorian Hope?
It is easy to jump on the flavour of the month and say the Blues are almost cooked and the Doggies, or the Cats, or the Hawks are the great Victorian hope to prevent the Premiership from leaving Victorian borders, but that would be to ignore the overall body of work the Blues have put in this season.
While a Dry July is fatal to the Bombers, it has not killed off the Blues and their chances in season 2024. Any coach would prefer real and perceived weaknesses within their team were exposed during the season rather than under the bright lights of September.
Carlton have just had a bad month, but all clubs have had a bad month this year. Brisbane and Fremantle have used that time wisely to improve their game, so Carlton will now have a month to get it all right.
There many are ‘ifs and buts’ about the Blues heading towards September, which is healthy at this time of the year, and while some will of the ‘ifs and buts’ will be answered during the month of August, the real test will come in September.
The Blues at their best are on par, maybe even better, than any other of the teams vying for the flag, and they are more than capable of winning the flag. Carlton should be able to dust off their mid-winter blues during August and perform well enough in September to at least make a Preliminary Final.
At this stage, Carlton is still the Great Victorian Hope, but……
