1. The Bulldogs are almost a lock for finals, Bombers not so much
With ten wins on the board and needing three more to make it a certainty, the Bulldogs have all but secured a spot in this year’s finals, barring disaster. There is still a knife’s edge element to it over the next fortnight with games against the Giants at home followed by a tricky one the following week against the Tigers. One gets the feeling that they should win at least one of those games, then their next two are against the Hawks and the Eagles. That should be enough to get them over the line even if their final-round clash against the Cats goes against them.
Yes, the Dogs have been up and down all year and have lost the odd game we didn’t expect them to, but their win over the Bombers was the win of a team who knew that finals were on the line and they eventually overpowered the Bombers with the commitment expected from a finals contender. Liberatore was fantastic once again finishing the game with 36 touches, and Bontempelli’s two goals from his 29 touches probably just edged out Libba for best on ground. I’ve seen a fair bit of the Bulldogs games this year, and there is the possibility, particularly over the next fortnight, that they could stumble and find themselves battling to stay in the eight. But my feeling is they can see the finish line now, and I think they’ll get the job done.
The Bombers are in a spot of bother now sitting all the way down in 11th position, such is the tightness of the ladder in that middle section. A win would’ve seen them finish as high as fifth. There is still a chance for Essendon to make it, but it will need to start next week against the Swans in Melbourne. A loss there would be pretty much game over despite the fact they have the Eagles and Kangaroos in the two rounds that follow. Their season ends with an away clash against the Giants followed by a final-round encounter with Collingwood. Whilst they’re not completely gone for the year, the fact they’ve won just one of their past five games makes it hard to see them winning four of their final five.
Their form right now is suggesting otherwise, and even their usually prolific ball-winners in Merrett and Parish haven’t had their normal influence this past fortnight. Most of their high-possession players in this game were in defence which tells you where the ball is spending the most time. Ridley, Redman, Laverde and McGrath all had more than 25 touches and played well, but the engine room of the Bulldogs controlled the game and broke it wide open in the last quarter to run away 41-point winners in a disappointing result for Bomber fans. They’ve definitely had an improved year, but barring a minor miracle in the last five rounds, I think their lack of a victory during finals since 2004 will remain for now.
2. Do you ever get the feeling the Tigers are having a lend of us?
The ending to this game and the final result was nothing short of ridiculous. The Hawks had this game well and truly in their keeping leading by as much as 36 points late in the third term. What isn’t ridiculous about this is that the younger Hawks tired as the game wore on and conceded the final six goals for the game. What is a bit of a joke is that the Tigers played insipidly for three quarters, turned it on in the last, and with their season all but shot to pieces with around four minutes of play remaining, they managed to snatch the lead with 90 seconds to go in yet another great escape.
Their remaining five games look daunting enough, but this Richmond unit have pulled off so many football miracles to remain in touch, almost anything seems possible. Their tough run home starts with the Demons next Sunday. A loss there will make it hard, but a win sets up another beauty in Round 21 against the Bulldogs. We could be in for a fun ride with the Tigers in the next few weeks.
Dion Prestia is in top form as well as Taranto and Martin hitting the scoreboard and getting plenty of the ball. They’re still in this, although one gets the feeling they’d be further up the ladder if Tom Lynch didn’t get injured.
You have to sympathise with Hawks fans. Their team was awfully good for three quarters in a glimpse of what looks like a potentially bright future. You can see the makings of a good midfield group with Newcombe, Nash and Worpel all having a big influence. Skipper James Sicily took some time to work out how to be a good leader on field, but it looks like he’s figured it out and they’re a much better side when he’s out there. One gets the feeling that Sam Mitchell may prove to be a great coach in time, as well. But, with all that said, this loss will be a huge disappointment for the club. If they finished the year with seven or eight wins after shedding a bit of experience in favour of youth, it would have been a monumental result. It’s still not impossible to do so, but letting this one slip will hurt a little no doubt. However, as I’ve said, I think we can see what the Hawthorn Football Club is doing and where it’s heading, and I’m sure the fans who are feeling the pain after this loss can take some solace in what’s to come.
3. Charlie is on track for back-to-back Colemans
In Round Seven this year, the Blues thumped the hapless Eagles on their home ground to the tune of 108 points with Charlie Curnow booting a career-high nine goals with many chances late in the game for double figures that went begging. It almost looked like the same was going to happen again when Charlie’s shot at goal ten minutes into the final term crashed into the near goalpost. Fans were left wondering if the tenth goal was ever going to come, but they didn’t have to wait long as he snapped truly just a short time later.
Curnow will finish the round with a commanding lead in the Coleman medal race, but with Taylor Walker’s Adelaide Crows set to play the Eagles in the final round, Charlie would want to enter that round with a sizeable buffer in the hope Walker doesn’t repeat his ten-goal effort against the Eagles from their Round 13 meeting. It does seem to be an advantage for the chance of taking out the Coleman if your team plays West Coast twice this year. Charlie has definitely had a field day on both occasions, and with the late withdrawal of Tom Barrass, the Eagles ended up shifting their leading goalkicker in Oscar Allen onto him to try and keep him under control.
The Blues suffered some key injuries in their 71-point win over West Coast, none more crucial than Sam Walsh who looks certain to miss two to three weeks with a hamstring injury, while Silvagni and Motlop also left the field in the first half. They’ve won five in a row after losing six straight, and now they face ladder leader Collingwood without Walsh. A sixth win almost guarantees them a place in the eight, but the Blues in recent times only seem to play their best football when they don’t think they’re a chance to play finals.
West Coast will take some comfort in the knowledge they outscored Carlton eight goals to six after halftime, preventing what could have been another 100+ point mauling. However, the halftime score of 98 to 16 shows just how far off the pace they are, and it seems no matter how hard they try, injuries will continue to hamper them with the 33-year-old Luke Shuey once again going off with a hamstring strain. The Eagles skipper does not have a deal for 2024, and with injuries plaguing the latter part of his career, you’d have to ask the question of whether he is worth keeping on their list. He has definitely been a terrific player, but the club is seemingly paying the price for retaining too many veterans at this stage. Time will tell whether he gets the go-ahead or not, but surely the list at the Eagles will see some dramatic change come season’s end. Looking to next week, the Eagles will have their best chance to win a second game this season against the Kangaroos. I’m sure that will be their focus for the time being.
4. Only a fool would tip against the Lions at home
The Lions have played at the GABBA on no less than nine occasions so far this year and have prevailed on each occasion. The temptation was there to tip against them this week with Geelong charging towards a finals berth and showing some solid form, but my instincts got the better of me and I stuck with the Lions knowing they always seem to find a way to get the job done in front of their home crowd. It wasn’t without a scare though. After leading by as much as 37 points during the third term, the Cats managed to get within 11 points midway through the final term and an upset seemed possible. Thankfully, unlike against the Demons in the previous round, Brisbane managed to keep the Cats at bay thanks to a great mark and goal to Callum Ah Chee in the 18th minute which probably sealed the deal despite a late goal to Stengle. The final margin was 11 points in the end, and with the Power going down to the Magpies, the Lions can snatch a home final if they can keep winning and Port Adelaide suffer another defeat.
You would expect the Lions to be too good for the Suns next week while Port Adelaide take on the Crows in the showdown. The Crows won their earlier meeting so it could happen as early as next week. Brisbane’s midfield were well on top in the clearance count with Dunkley, McCluggage and Neale all getting 25 touches or more. Ah Chee made the most of a late call-up to finish with 23 touches and the match-winning goal in one of his best games for his second club. Sadly, for one of the Rising Star favourites in Will Ashcroft, his season is over with an ACL injury.
Geelong are still in the eight for the time being at least with Carlton and Richmond snapping at their heels. They’ll be disappointed in the fact that it took them until 20 minutes into the second quarter to score their first major, and with things tightening up late in the game, there’s no doubt their slow start cost them dearly. The Cats should return to the winners list when they take on the Dockers at home this Saturday before a very tough fortnight against Port Adelaide followed by Collingwood. Thankfully, the Port Adelaide game is at home.
Jeremy Cameron finished with three goals for the game and almost got his team across the line. He’s slowly finding his best form again after missing a few games through concussion. Tom Stewart was one of Geelong’s best playing some time in the midfield to help his on-ballers out while they were doing it tough. It certainly proved to be a worthwhile move and something we may see again moving forward. I still believe Geelong will win enough games to play finals, however, they needed to win this to have any hopes of a Top m4 finish, so we can pretty much put that idea to bed now.
5. Jamie Elliott is the man you want kicking for goal if your life depended on it.
It’s almost getting to the point of ridiculousness now when you consider how many times Jamie Elliott has literally won a game off his own boot, and in most cases from a ridiculous angle as well. He finished this game with three goals, and each of his goals were from the paint. His two last-quarter goals, including the final match-winner, were sublime. His level of self-belief in those moments must be at an all-time high. When the camera zooms in on his face as he takes his approach, even us punters can see he’s not going to miss. I guess when you do something enough times, eventually it becomes second nature.
Now, the Magpies find themselves two games clear atop the ladder with a much higher percentage than the second-placed Port Adelaide almost making it effectively a three game cushion. Scott Pendlebury defied his status as elder statesman, finishing with the most possessions of any Collingwood player. He seems almost certain to play on until he surpasses the 400-game mark. Nick Daicos was still good without being his devastating best, while another veteran in Sidebottom showed he still has plenty to offer with 26 touches and a goal. Collingwood face an in-form Carlton this coming Friday night in what will be a blockbuster at the MCG. The Blues are fighting for a position in the eight but will be without Sam Walsh and Harry McKay. At some point, with the Pies now comfortably sorted for a Top Two finish, you would think that they might start resting key players to ensure their chances of keeping their list healthy for what looks like their best chance in a while to take out the premiership. Blues fans will be hoping that starts this week, although allowing their arch-rivals a potentially easier passage into September would probably fly in the face of what the club would ultimately wish to do.
Port Adelaide played well. In fact, they held the lead for 87 minutes of the game as opposed to Collingwood’s 31 minutes in the lead. As is often the case, the Magpies just have an uncanny knack of being in the lead at the final siren in these tight ones. As well as they played and as good as they’ve been this season having had a club record 13-game winning streak, the reality is that they’ve now lost two in a row, and should the unthinkable happen and they lose to the Crows in next week’s showdown, the home final becomes all the more difficult to obtain. The following round sees an even tougher assignment heading down to Geelong. I’m sure the Power will do all they can to ensure victory this coming week.
Connor Rozee was superb once again finishing with two goals from 28 touches. Zak Butters also had a productive night with a game-high 31 possessions. They’ve now got the challenge of finishing their season off. Limping into the finals and not going deep will have the Hinkley critics firing up once more. Big fortnight ahead!
6. The Swans aren’t dead yet
The Swans made fairly light work of the Dockers who never really challenged them on Saturday night at Optus Stadium. A lot of people said Sydney would have a better season at the back end as they get players back from injury, so it may explain how they’re still in with a slight chance to play finals. Luke Parker was one of the Swans’ best finishing with 31 touches and a goal. Lance Franklin kicked three goals in what could be his last game at Optus Stadium with the 36-year-old still undecided on whether he’ll go on in 2024. All in all, it’s been a fairly mediocre season for a side that played off in last year’s Grand Final, but with a healthier list and a better run of form, there is still a chance they could sneak into the finals.
Their clash against the Bombers at Marvel Stadium will be the equivalent of an elimination final for both teams with the loser possibly falling as low as 14th on the ladder. Sydney’s remaining five games are all winnable but not without challenges. It’s the old cliché of one week at a time, but if they can win four out of their next five, it should be enough to see them in September which would be some kind of effort.
The Dockers are sitting in 15th place and are playing like you would expect a bottom-four team to be playing. After a meritorious victory at the MCG against the Demons way back in Round 11, Fremantle have managed to win just once in seven matches and have now lost four in a row. They’ve also lost three in a row on home soil which is the most concerning part of the equation. To add insult to injury, they now have to head down to Geelong to play the Cats this Saturday before hosting Brisbane in Perth the week after. I’m fairly confident they’ll lose both of those games to sink further into the mire of being in the bottom four. Some positives from this game include a four-goal haul to Lachie Schultz and a solid performance as the number one ruckman in Darcy’s absence from Luke Jackson. Perhaps they can look forward to a potential win against cross-town rivals West Coast in Round 22, although if they were to fall short in that one that would be the ultimate slap in the face for their fans. After finishing fifth last year, this year is a disaster really.
7. GWS finally break the Manuka Oval hoodoo
You have to go back all the way to Round 7, 2019 when the Giants last won a game at Canberra’s Manuka Oval. It was a run of nine straight losses at their alternate home ground, so it will come as some relief both for the club and their long-suffering Canberra-based fans. It’s incredible to think that a side that was sitting in 15th place with just four wins has now rattled off six impressive victories in a row to find themselves in seventh place with 10 wins. It’s a remarkable turnaround and one which would no doubt delight first-year coach Adam Kingsley.
Many are lauding the Giants’ defensive unit as now becoming one of the best in the league lead by All-Australian fancy Sam Taylor. In the past six weeks, they’ve averaged a measly 58 points against them. They’re in the eight right now, but there is still plenty of work to do starting with this Saturday’s game against the Bulldogs at Mars Stadium in Ballarat. You can bet your life that conditions there will be ice cold and the wind will be strong, so hopefully they can adapt and keep the Bulldogs to a similarly low score to their recent average, but they’ll have to be at their best.
Stephen Coniglio once again topped the possession count for the Giants with 29 and a goal followed closely by the damaging Josh Kelly with 28 and also one major. This Saturday will be tough against the Bulldogs, but the Giants have shown they can win on the road.
Like most weeks, the Suns were competitive in the early part of the game, but as the game wore on, they weren’t able to stay with the in-form Giants, eventually losing by a comfortable 40-point margin after a third quarter they’d rather forget. Their season is all but done and they may even struggle to match their best effort of 10 wins in a season at this point. They have unearthed a good midfielder in Sam Flanders who has finally been given the chance to play on the ball and has shown himself to be a clearance king.
A major concern for the Suns is the poor form of Ben King. Since kicking two goals against the Hawks in Round 15, Ben has not been able to kick any and is really struggling to have any impact in games whatsoever. One has to wonder how much longer the caretaker coach Stephen King can persist with him before sending him to the reserves to find some form. The Suns have a few tough games to come before finishing their season against the Kangaroos. They currently have eight wins on the board, and winning two of their next five may be difficult.
8. Melbourne may have done enough to finish in the Top 4
The Demons’ win over the Crows has all but assured them of finishing with the double-chance for this year’s finals. And the way things are playing out right now, if they were to stay there, it would be a highly likely encounter with the Magpies, who they were able to beat back in Round 12. But, for a lot of this year, have they really looked like a Top 4 side?
Certainly at times they have, but they’ve also been fairly ordinary in patches, particularly during that period from Rounds 12 through 16 where they failed to kick more than eight goals in any of those games. This game showed no signs of that as they managed to score 14 goals, but their normally stingy defence saw the Crows kick 13 goals and almost pinch the game late after trailing by as much as 32 points during the third term. Melbourne are going along OK without setting the world on fire, but I guess if you win the close ones as they have in the last fortnight, they’ve done enough and now sit two games clear of the Bulldogs in fifth with a hefty advantage in percentage terms. This week’s upcoming game against the Tigers should prove interesting. I imagine the Demons will go in as favourites, but I believe the Tigers will think themselves a chance.
The Crows must be wondering what they need to do to win a game in Melbourne. They almost beat Collingwood a few weeks ago, falling short by just two points. They had their chances on Sunday against Melbourne, drawing level with loads of time remaining in the final term. Melbourne seems to have all the answers while the Crows kept coming, but in the end it goes down as another honourable loss and another nail in their finals chances. Taylor Walker stayed in contention with Curnow for the Coleman Medal booting four goals for the game. Izak Rankine was great yet again finishing with three but ended the game with a hamstring concern. Adelaide’s best football has been amazing at times, and with the showdown coming up next round against the Power, we may see it again. A win to the Crows could seriously derail the Port Adelaide juggernaut while giving them that slim hope of making the eight.
9. The Saints must improve on current form to play finals
I’m sure that over these past six weeks, most St Kilda fans have aged considerably. In their last six games, the Saints have only managed two wins against the two bottom teams by just eight points on each occasion. Most teams have defeated those two teams by considerable margins, so it would suggest the Saints are struggling to compete at the higher levels now. Still, they find themselves with five games to go sitting on 10 wins and in sixth place. They take on the Hawks this week who have already defeated them once this year, but if they can lift their game a little and win that one, they’ll have Richmond and Carlton to contend with in the following rounds. Both of those teams are rising up the ladder and trying to find a spot in the eight while the Saints seem to be on the slide.
Why I believe they must win their next three is they finish the year with Geelong at Marvel followed by Brisbane at the GABBA. Even though Geelong are currently eighth, you can see they’re improving ever so slightly as we get down to the business end, and Brisbane at home are all but invincible. So there is hope, but there can be no more slip-ups.
Saints skipper Jack Steele really was the hero getting his side across the line with 33 touches and a huge final-quarter goal. Mitch Owens and Jack Higgins kicked a couple each and the forward line definitely is livelier with Higgins back in the side. Maybe the Saints can find another gear in the run home and recapture some of their early season form, but on recent showings they seem likely to fall short.
If I get frustrated watching North Melbourne games, I can only imagine what it must be like for the fans. They’ve come pretty close on a number of occasions since their wins in the first two rounds, but it just seems as though they can’t run a game out. A 17-point lead at three-quarter time is hardly insurmountable, but it really puts the pressure on if teams in that position kick the first goal of the last quarter. Once St Kilda goaled through Rowan Marshall three minutes in, the writing was on the wall. The Saints rattled off four in a row and got out to an eight-point lead. North tried to stay in the game, and when Ziebell kicked a goal at the 19-minute mark, the margin was just one point. But, to the clear frustration of their interim coach, Brett Ratten, they couldn’t take the lead.
Jack Higgins kicked his second with two minutes to spare and that was it. Another close call but yet another Kangaroos loss making it 16 straight. Davies-Uniacke played a blinder starting many forward thrusts and showing his true class with 33 touches. He is the future of the club and will be a captain one would think. Nick Larkey is closing in on 50 goals for the season with 48 after booting three goals. It’s also very promising to see Tarryn Thomas back playing good footy after his off-field tribulations earlier this year. He is an important player for North Melbourne, and he was instrumental in almost getting them a win with his three goals from 14 touches. I’ll be watching their game against the Eagles in Perth with great interest. Is it possible for both sides to find a way to lose on the day?
10. When was the last time you’d see 2 points separating 5th and 10th after 19 rounds?
I’d say the answer is it has never happened, nor will it ever be likely to happen again. It is simply incredible to think that those six teams could jump four or five places with a win or drop the same with a loss. And there are a couple more teams close behind who are still not done with yet should things go their way. This is a season for mathematics nerds where there are so many permutations and combinations still available to decide how the final eight is going to look. Those who make it will have done so with grit and hard work, while those who miss out will be desperately unlucky.
For the next five weeks, you will see countless games representing an elimination final-type scenario. And I am very excited to see how it will all play out. Perhaps I’ll be that little more invested due to the fact my team in Carlton are in the mix after playing six weeks of the worst footy I’ve witnessed at the club since the Pagan, Malthouse and Bolton years. But I’m also fascinated by the Tigers and their incredible never say die attitude. I’ve been seriously impressed with the Giants and their amazing turnaround. I still have question marks over the credentials of the Bulldogs I want answered. I don’t believe St Kilda will make it but I could well be wrong. I think the Cats should make it, but am I living in the past and not really in touch with how good or otherwise they are currently? Whatever the case, three remaining games at the Cattery should do the trick for them. Is Essendon done? Well, if you look at their remaining games, there is some hope, but they might need to win four to get in. Whatever the case, we’re in for a rough ride and there’ll be a few broken hearts come Round 24 no doubt.
Hopefully, mine won’t be one of them, although here come the injuries once again…
