Have you ever looked at the selections of the experts and thought that they have no idea what they’re talking about ?
I have, and I have had people look at my predictions and tell me I have no idea what I’m on about, either. I mean, predicting the next premier (of the league… not of your state), Brownlow Medallist or wooden spooner is a crapshoot, and for the most part, we have absolutely no idea how a season is going to play out. Injuries, suspensions, poor coaching… they’re a lethal combination to a side you expected to do well. In recent years, interrupted seasons, and hubs interstate have made things even more difficult to assess. But in 2022, things seemed to be a little easier to pick. Things were getting back to some sense of normalcy and the haze that shrouded the league and society, in general, was finally starting to lift.
This would be the year that the experts started hitting things again, right?
Hmmm, maybe not.
But that didn’t stop them from throwing out predictions for the world to read, and in my case, file away. As part of the annual season previews contained in the Herald Sun and other newspapers around the country prior to the season, footy experts are required to dole out their thoughts on the coming year- I must stress, this is not a shot at them. It is particularly not a shot at those identified in this article – they’re in here because I have access to their picks in hard copy, as part of the HS’s “Crystal Ball” section.
After looking at the selections for 2022, it would make you wonder why you’re even listening to them in the first place.
The Herald-Sun is a treasure trove of ill-conceived picks and embarrassing selections every year. In 2021, not one of the 17 people considered experts by the number one selling paper in the land were able to select the premiers. I suppose that is understandable, given Melbourne came from outside the top eight to claim the flag, but in 2022, with perennial contender Geelong taking home the cup, surely things would be better, right?
Oh no… that’d be wrong.
For the second straight season, none of these people, who get paid well to inform you of where the footy world is at, were able to select the Cats as the premiers. Not one, including a bloke who would go on to write a book about the Premiers.
But wait… it gets worse. None of them selected either of Geelong or Sydney to make the Grand Final at all. They were O/34 in terms of Grand Final participants.
Robbo decided that the Cats would miss the eight, all together. He also tipped Collingwood for the wooden spoon. And he has two high-profile gigs on TV and in the newspaper every week. Looking at his picks in 2022, it seems he would struggle to tell if his arse was on fire even if he smelled the smoke.
Sam Landsberger was just as bad, with no Cats team in his top eight, either. Nick Smart (no relation to Maxwell) failed to live up to his name, with the Cats missing from his group of finalists, as well.
Jay Clark had Sydney outside the top eight, as did Scott Gullan.
And Lauren Wood, whoever she is, had neither the Cats or Swans in her top eight, proving that she doesn’t know her arse from her elbow… must be why she spends so much time sitting on her elbows.
These people are the “experts” whose opinions we pay to read (or grab from your local Maccas).
And just two people selected North Melbourne as the wooden spooners, with Mick Malthouse redeeming himself, somewhat, and another bloke I have never heard of, Chris Cavanaugh, making the right call on the worst team in the game.
None selected Patrick Cripps as the Brownlow Medallist, either.
So, when you think there were 17 people, making 68 selections (I am condensing the Grand Finalist/Premiers predictions) over four categories, they managed to get just two correct. For the mathemagicians amongst you, that is a success rate of just 2.9%.
And that’s why they get the big money…
But hang on, Mongrel… you’re up here giving out the backhanders like Novak Djokovic… who is apparently no longer a health and safety threat to us all… how did you go, mate?
Fair call.
First of all, when someone messaged me and accused me of being an expert last year, I laughed. Truth is, I am just like you. As are all the people who write for The Mongrel. We’re fans, not experts, and though we love footy and dedicate a large slice of our life to it, we don’t think our opinion rates above yours. We’re not experts – we just love the game.
Secondly, I wrote the above without checking our own “Crystal Ball” article from early this year. Still, I am pretty confident a few from our team will trump the efforts of those above.
Let’s see how we went.
Of the 11 writers who submitted their picks, one accurately selected Geelong as the premiers.
That’s 1/11 thus far.
Two of us had Sydney making the Grand Final.
That’s 3/22.
And there is another one (it was me, it was me!) selecting North to take home the spoon.
That’s 4/33.
And in a mighty effort, none of us selected Patrick Cripps to win the Brownlow… making me look like a bit of a goose for getting stuck into the others, above.
That’s 4/44 for 9.09% success rate.
Still, nothing to write home about, but at over three times the accuracy of the Herald Sun writers, we could be the best of a very bad bunch.
Hugh McCluggage. Get on now at $81 before he explodes and his odds shrink like Ollie Wines – Jay Clark
With a sprinkling of Sam Mitchell innovation and creativity, they (Hawthorn) could be knocking on the door of the top eight this year. – Leigh Montagna
I think the Dogs are right in line for a dynasty opportunity – David King
The lesson here?
Back your own judgement – most others have less idea than you.
I look forward to the next instalment of the Herald Sun Crystal Ball in 2023. It’ll give me ammunition for this time next year. I’ll just have to make certain we get a few right, ourselves.
And before I go, I found this interesting. I like David King – he is one of the few footy personalities that will engage with supporters online and not have a Rohan Connolly-like hissy fit if he disagrees with them. I really respect that about him. That said, he is 0/8 in terms of selecting the premier since 2015. The average ladder finish for his premiership picks is… tenth. Ouch!
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