Carlton are two from two under Josh Fraser, and for about the hundredth time in the season, Blues fans dare to hope for the future.
The Blues dismantled Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval by 34 points in a performance that was exactly as comprehensive as the scoreline suggests, which is saying something given Port actually won the clearance count. Jason Horne-Francis had 32 disposals, three goals and eight clearances and was the only reason the margin was not sixty. Zak Butters had 658 metres gained but was a bit wasteful in front of goals, which is either a tremendous contribution to team play or the equivalent of shorting your own stock to sell on the cheap, depending on your disposition.
Last 5
Port have won five of their last six meetings with Carlton at Adelaide Oval, by an average of 71 points. Carlton have won four of their last six overall, by an average of 36. These two stats coexist, which suggests Port usually turns up to protect their home ground while Carlton has been quietly winning the games away from Adelaide Oval. Both trends continued on Saturday night, with Carlton doing so at Port’s home ground. History, meet the exception.
Recent Form
Port Adelaide (3-7 coming in): The Power won a genuine upset against Geelong at Kardinia in Round 9, which felt like a turning point and turned out to be more of a pleasant detour. Port lost to Gold Coast in Darwin in Round 10 and arrived at this game sitting 14th with an injury list that functions less as a medical document and more as a tribute to misfortune. Connor Rozee is 7-9 weeks away. Sam Powell-Pepper is 3-5 weeks away. Josh Sinn is 11-13 weeks away. Miles Bergman is 7-9 weeks away. When your key people are measured in months rather than weeks, the remaining players are not just filling spots, they are carrying the season on their backs. Horne-Francis has been doing that admirably. He cannot do it alone.
Carlton (coming in off Round 10 win): Josh Fraser picked up his first win as senior coach in Round 10 against the Western Bulldogs and the Blues have not looked back. Cripps started looking like himself again, the ball movement was cleaner, and the pressure defence they applied in the back half was the kind of structural work that coaches build reputations on. Two from two under Fraser. The noise about what the previous coaching regime left behind has gone quiet in the way noise always does when the team starts winning.
Ins and Outs
Port Adelaide
In: Jacob Wehr, Todd Marshall, Josh Lai
Out: Lachie Jones (concussion), Will Lorenz (omitted), Dante Visentini (omitted)
Josh Lai returning from concussion as a straight swap for Jones is the most uncomplicated selection decision Port have made in a month. Marshall coming back provides a contested forward option they have been missing. Wehr adds structural depth from the interchange.
The more significant list is the one that did not get to play. Rozee. Powell-Pepper. Sinn. Bergman. Lukosius. Five quality players unavailable for various lengths of time, each one a piece of the forward or midfield structure that Port needs to be a competitive team across four quarters against opposition like Carlton. Asking the available 22 to compensate for all of that is the coaching challenge of the season, and on Saturday night they couldn’t cover that loss.
Milestones: Zak Butters played his 150th AFL game. Harry McKay (Carlton) also played his 150th. Two milestones in the same match is unusual. McKay marked his with a goal. Butters marked his with 658 metres gained, which is one way to celebrate.
Carlton
In: Wade Derksen, Talor Byrne, Flynn Young
Out: Jacob Weitering (injured), Ollie Hollands (ankle, 3-4 weeks), Zac Williams (managed)
Weitering being unavailable is the one Carlton change that stings. He is their backline general, and his absence creates a hole the selection committee has been trying to paper over. Adam Saad did not pass his fitness test in time, which would have helped. Derksen, Byrne and Young provide depth and energy from the interchange and all three contributed.
Matthew Carroll went off in the first five minutes with a possible injury, which meant Carlton were effectively playing with a rotated bench from the early stages.
The Start
Carlton didn’t have the best start, with Matthew Carroll going down within the first few minutes, grabbing the back of his knee. He soon went off and didn’t take any further part in the match. Horne-Francis kicked the first goal inside five minutes from a forward 50 stoppage, which had the local crowd smiling. It did not last. Carlton took the next four goals of the match through McGovern, Ison, Byrne, and Walsh. Three of these goals were from plays launched in their defensive half, which has been a significant problem with Carlton in 2026, ranking last for being able to score from their back half, so whatever strategic modifications Fraser has made, they’re working.
Logan Evans went off briefly for Port on the blood rule and came back. Horne-Francis was the most impactful player on the ground, but was finding the ball less and less as the quarter progressed, and by the time quarter time arrived, Carlton had five majors to Port’s two Horne-Francis goals, and it really looked like the locals were in trouble, and needed a lift in effort for the second quarter.
Port did seem to run harder after quarter time, but their link-up play was stymied by the Blues shutting down the passing lanes and denying Port the corridor, then counter-attacking from desperate disposals to someone under pressure.
By halftime, Carlton led by 35 points and had converted six marks inside 50 into six goals. Port had taken seven marks inside 50 and scored fourteen points.
The Second Half
Port came out of the sheds in the third quarter with genuine intent. They won the first four clearances and had the ball in their forward half for the opening ten minutes, and there was a period where the outline of a different game was briefly visible. Then Carlton steadied, held their defensive shape, and the passage produced limited scoring. Port’s clearance work through the quarter was impressive — they had the last nine clearances of the term — and they generated ten of the last eleven inside 50s. They scored one goal from all of it.
Willem Drew was Port’s most important player across the game in the sections that didn’t end up on the scoreboard. His tackling and willingness to put a body on the line to give Horne-Francis space from a tag is a big reason why the latter had the impact that he did. Drew also got his own ball, and had six clearances. Drew is doing the kind of work that builds a team’s contested game over time. On this occasion, the team’s contested game was not enough, even with his output, but he’s one that can face the Monday review without dread.
The Finish
The final quarter went mostly Carlton’s way in the sense that they had already won and Port looked like they knew it. Ten individual goal kickers for the Blues across the game (equal their most in a single match this season) reflects how comfortably the ball was moving to teammates rather than through one or two reliable options. Horne-Francis kicked his third in the last term, which meant his three-goal, 32-disposal, 600-metres-gained afternoon at least finished with something on the board. Aliir Aliir came off with an injury in the final quarter, adding one more name to Port’s medicare claims list.
Carlton won by 34. Port’s Corey Durdin, the former Carlton Blue, left his mark on the afternoon in a manner that was not limited to his goal, and we will come to that in the next section.
I’ve probably spoken about Port more than Carlton here, but the reason is that Carlton had such a great whole-team, team-first effort, which didn’t expect individual brilliance, but holding to roles and structures.
Cripps, Hayward, Walsh, Florent and Hewett all contributed heavily, and while McKay needs to be better in front of goal, he moved well enough to draw away defenders to cover him, allowing the other forwards to run into open leading lanes. Overall, Carlton had the fewest passengers, with each player (except Carroll due to his early injury) having moments that they can point to as reasons why the team won.
So yeah, it’s harder to talk about the individuals when it’s the structure and gameplan that’s really been the standout here, so in that respect, Fraser and his team can take a bow.
Controversial Moment
Corey Durdin is now at Port Adelaide, having previously spent time at Carlton, which added a bit of spice to the fracas. He kicked a goal in the third quarter against his former club and then became involved in a confrontation with Carlton players that included Billy Wilson, who seems like he’s been on a high-protein diet for a 20-year-old. The exchange went to the MRO, which will produce its findings during the week, but I wouldn’t think either would be looking at anything significant if the MRO is feeling sensible. That isn’t always the case, though.
I kinda like when a player gets into a bit of a scuffle with their former teammates. It’s probably a bit cathartic for all involved. The leaving player gets to have a go at whoever nicked their shampoo in the showers, and the others get to let him know who got their parking spot. The physical edge increases the tension, the personal element sharpens the contest, and at some point, someone goes half a centimetre further than the rules permit.
I mean, surely we’ve all had some former co-worker that we wouldn’t mind roughing up a little?
The MRO will decide whether what Durdin did constitutes a charge, a fine or a note of mild concern. Whatever the finding, he gave Port’s supporters something to cheer in an otherwise sobering evening, and Carlton’s players something to file away for the next time they meet.
Logan Evans’ blood rule incident in the first quarter was a minor inconvenience rather than a controversy. He returned, played most of the game, and finished with 21 disposals and 11 marks. Port could have done with a dozen more of him.
Midfield Matchup
Both Jason Horne-Francis and Patrick Cripps finished with 32 disposals, which on paper looks like the midfield battle went to a draw, but I’d say JHF shaded Cripps one-on-one as an individual. However, Cripps played his role in the Carlton midfield machine, while Horne-Francis seemed to be trying to turn the game on his own without bringing the rest of the rovers along with him. It could be that he was trying to do too much, but looking at the output of Wines and Wehr, I think they could have been a bit more effective and given JHF some genuine support.
Cripps had eight clearances, five tackles and one goal. He was the organising principle behind Carlton’s ball movement and the reason the Blues kept finding teammates in space rather than contested situations. Horne-Francis had eight clearances, three goals and 600 metres gained. He was outstanding in a losing side, but it’s concerning that his heroics couldn’t spark more effort from his teammates.
Zak Butters had 28 disposals and 658 metres gained. He also had no goals and two behinds. There are games where 658 metres gained leads to goals, and games where it leads to a very long run across the ground that produces nothing on the scoreboard. Saturday was the second kind of game. It is not a criticism of Butters to note that the team needs him to convert more often than that. Port needs their most damaging midfielder when they are trying to win games against quality opposition.
And yes, it does feel kinda weird to call Carlton ‘quality opposition’ given their reputation for fade outs, but they played like it in this one, so they can make that claim.
George Hewett had 26 disposals, one goal and eight score involvements for Carlton, doing the efficient, unremarkable work that good teams need from their supporting cast while their best player does the visible stuff. Hayward kicked two goals for Port from nineteen disposals. Logan Evans took eleven marks and generated 559 metres gained from the back flank. Their performances were not the problem.
The problem was that Port won the clearance count 35-27 and scored 1.2 (8) from their clearances. Carlton won fewer clearances and scored 6.3 (39) from theirs.
With all that in mind, and while JHF was probably the best player on the ground, he wasn’t in synch with the rest of his runners, and the Blues looked like a well-oiled engine ticking along, so it’s a tick to the Blues in the midfield matchup.
Ruck Battle
As a ruck enthusiast, the more I see of Jordon Sweet, the more I like him. He’s athletic, crafty and understands how to time his jump (which is a surprisingly rare skill at AFL level). Some rucks are great at the ball ups in the middle, some better along the boundary throw ins. Sweet is very good at both, without being elite, but, that still puts him above those who struggle in one or the other.
He’s also a high-effort player, and seems to adjust his angles and timing based on his opponent. He may be the smartest ruckman going around at the moment, though that’s like saying you’re the best-looking bloke in the Collingwood cheer squad.
Sweet won the hitout count 30 to 25 against Marc Pittonet. Sweet got first use more often, which matters at stoppages and apparently mattered not at all to the scoreboard. Port won the hitouts and lost the game by 34.
Pittonet gave Carlton enough of a platform at the contest and contributed his usual competent work around the ground. The hitout advantage Sweet generated was absorbed by Carlton’s quality at ground level, which is a theme of the night: Port did the first step better than Carlton in several areas, and Carlton did everything after that considerably better and more cohesively.
The Stats That Sting
• Port won the clearance count 35-27. Port scored 1.2 (8) from those clearances. Carlton scored 6.3 (39) from theirs.
• Ollie Wines: five disposals, 45% time on ground, negative seven metres gained. One disposal in the first half. His previous career low for a first half was three, from 2013. He extended that record by two. Wines is a fantastic player, so I’m sure there will be a reason for this that will come out during the week. He’s far better than this.
• Carlton’s inside 50 efficiency was 64%. Port’s was 47.9%. Carlton scored from 53% of their inside 50s. Port scored from 38%. The inside 50 count was close to even, 50-48 in Carlton’s favour. The game was not close to even. The quality of what happens inside 50, not the frequency, decides football matches against good teams.
• Carlton scored 6.9 (45) from intercepts. Their season average is 35.8 points from intercepts, a category in which they rank last in the competition. Port’s inaccuracy and turnover rate inside their own half gave Carlton opportunities they do not normally create. Carlton did not suddenly become good at intercepts. Port helped them get there.
• Port took seven marks inside 50 in the first half and scored fourteen points from them. Carlton took six and scored thirty-six. That is six goals from six marks for Carlton, and two goals from seven marks for Port. Even accounting for contested marks and difficult angles, that conversion gap is the game in one comparison.
Final Thoughts
Josh Fraser is now two from two, and the Blues are no longer a team that appears to be managing the clock on a difficult year. Whether the previous results were a list problem, a system problem or a coaching problem will be argued about for years. Right now, the team is winning, the ball movement is cleaner, and the pressure inside the back half is the kind of structural work that coaches build reputations on. Carlton are 3-8 and still a long way from the top eight. Two wins do not rebuild a ladder position, but they can definitely give the team a bit of spark, and the supporters a reason to hope.
Port Adelaide are 3-8 after this result and moving further from relevance with each injury. JHF and Butters are two of the better players in the competition. Drew is doing the unsexy work that holds a midfield together. Hayward and Evans are contributing intelligently from their positions. But they still struggle to turn those individual efforts into a system of play that threatens sides. None of it was enough on Saturday night, and the injury list means it will keep not being enough for the foreseeable future as their medical room gets busier.
Next Up
Port Adelaide have a bye in Round 12. Given the injury list they are currently managing, this is probably the best possible news the Power could have received. Rozee, Powell-Pepper, Sinn and Bergman all get another week of rehabilitation they badly need, and the coaching staff get a fortnight to work out how to structure a team that has been held together by Horne-Francis, Butters and good intentions. They need to use the break well, because 2026 is looking bleak for them at this point.
Their next game is Round 13, an away match against the Eagles at Optus stadium. The Eagles are every bit as mercurial as the Power, with their best being good enough to push the good teams, and their worst seeing them get blown away.
It’s hard to predict, but with the distance to travel and the mounting injury concerns both bigger obstacles for Port than West Coast, I’m going to have to tip the home side in what might be considered an upset.
West Coast by 17.
Essendon at Marvel Stadium. The Bombers have been competitive in patches this season and will view Port as a winnable game, which tells you everything you need to know about how both clubs’ seasons have been tracking. Port will be fresher for the bye but are still missing significant personnel. Essendon will be desperate for a home win after a difficult run. Port by 8, but with considerably more confidence if even one or two of those injured players manage to get back.
Carlton face Geelong at the MCG on Friday night in Round 12, and this is the first real test of what the Fraser era actually means. The Cats are fifth on the ladder, six wins from nine games, and coming off a strong patch of form. Carlton are 2-0 under Fraser and arriving with genuine momentum for the first time in some months. A Friday night MCG clash against Geelong is going ot be a tough game, and a real trial by fire of whether this Carlton team can build a season out of the ashes and woes of the first half, or whether it’s just a new coach bounce in form. If the Blues can match the Cats up the ground and convert at the rate they have been, the result is genuinely in the balance, but I can’t bring myself to tip against this Geelong side when the Blues are still in the bottom four.
Geelong by 23.
